English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 88266/117736 (75%)
Visitors : 23393039      Online Users : 156
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 企業管理學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/100712
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100712


    Title: Simple Rules for Combining Forecasts: Some Empirical Results
    Authors: 唐揆
    Ringuest, J.;Tang, Kwei
    Contributors: 企管系
    Date: 1987
    Issue Date: 2016-08-24 17:23:12 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: This study is an empirical comparison of three rules for aggregating forecasts. The three combined forecasts evaluated are: a simple average forecast, a median forecast and a focus forecast. These combined forecasts are compared over four economic variables (housing starts, the index of industrial production, the unemployment rate and gross national product) using a set of previously published forecasts. The results indicate that an average forecast will not perform as well as previous studies indicate if all or most of the individual forecasts tend to over- or under-predict simultaneously. The median forecast also seems to be suspect in this case. There is little evidence to suggest that the median forecast is a viable alternative to the mean forecast. Focus forecasting, however, is found to perform well for all four variables. The evidence indicates that focus forecasting is a reasonable alternative to simple averaging.
    Relation: Socio Economic Planning Sciences, 21(4), 239-243
    Data Type: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0038-0121(87)90028-0
    DOI: 10.1016/0038-0121(87)90028-0
    Appears in Collections:[企業管理學系] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    index.html0KbHTML312View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback