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    政大機構典藏 > 學術期刊 > Issues & Studies > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/103185


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    題名: From Romantic Triangle to Marriage? Washington-Beijing-Taipei Relations in Historical Comparison
    作者: Wu, Yu-Shan
    關鍵詞: strategic triangle;cross-Strait relations;U.S. China policy;Bismarck;World War I
    日期: 2005-03
    上傳時間: 2016-10-24 15:24:59 (UTC+8)
    摘要: This paper applies the ”strategic triangle” approach to the relations among Washington, Beijing, and Taipei in the post-Cold War period. The main argument is that the strategic triangle among the three has been gradually shifting from a ”romantic triangle” with the United States playing the role of an ”unwilling pivot,” to a ”marriage” between the United States and Taiwan-although whether that status can be sustained remains to be seen. The cause of this shift is mainly structural: an unwilling pivot tends to tilt toward the weaker of the two wings, particularly when the stronger wing is emerging as a threat. In making this argument, the paper draws a historical analogy with the Berlin-St. Petersburg-Vienna triangle between 1870 and 1914. In that triangle, the unwilling pivot, Germany, first adopted an impartial attitude toward Russia and Austria-Hungary. As the duel between St. Petersburg and Vienna intensified over the Balkans, however, Germany was forced to take sides and bind its fate with the Hapsburg Empire. A comparison of the two triangles-including their modes of entry, operation, and exit-reveals a strong tendency in the Washington-Beijing-Taipei triangle to evolve following the historical pattern of the pre-WWI Berlin-St Petersburg-Vienna triangle. Based on this comparison, we can conclude an unwilling pivot should find that the costs associated with pivot playing are likely too high, and entry into a partnership with one of the wings is deemed more favorable. It remains to be seen whether a formal marriage will come about between the United States and Taiwan, as it did between Germany and Austria-Hungary prior to WWI.
    關聯: Issues & Studies,41(1),113-159
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[Issues & Studies] 期刊論文

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