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    Title: 房價與經濟成長及消費間之關係研究
    Authors: 林左裕
    Contributors: 地政系
    Keywords: 房價;經濟成長;消費;費雪方程式;向量自我迴歸(VAR)
    housing prices;economic growth;consumption;Fisher equation;vector autoregression (VAR) model
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2017-05-17 10:27:10 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 臺灣不斷攀升的房價已對民眾產生龐大的貸款負擔,尤其在次級房貸風暴後所實施的寬鬆貨幣政策,在低持有稅及交易稅的環境底下,臺北市於2014年的房價所得比已高達16倍,高於世界多數城市。高房價所帶來的高貸款負擔率,似乎已排擠了消費能力及經濟成長。為了探討房價對消費支出的影響,本文透過向量自我迴歸模型分析結果顯示,臺灣消費支出受到加權股價指數及消費支出落後期本身顯著的正向影響,貸款利率對消費支出影響不顯著,而不斷攀升的房價本身對消費支出是負向影響。並透過衝擊反應分析發現。房價指數對本身的衝擊反應最顯著,效果也最長,消費支出的衝擊反應次之。顯示臺灣高房價已明顯排擠消費支出並導致經濟成長緩慢甚至衰退,透過此結論以利政府深思當刺激或抑制房價時所產生的連帶效應。
    In many countries around the world since the subprimemortgage crisis in 2008, soaring housing prices under central governments’ quantitative easing (QE) monetary policies have deteriorated home affordability. For example, in Taipei’s environment of long-term low property taxes, the price-to-income (PTI) ratio reached 16 in 2014, which is higher than the corresponding ratios in most cities
    around the world. The fiscal pressure that mortgage payments impose on households seems to crowd out their consumption capability and thus to counter economic growth. However, current literature has revealed diverse effects of housing prices on consumption in far-flung countries. To discover the influence of housing prices on consumption and economic growth, we collected data in Taiwan for empirical analysis. Results show that the stock price index has had a significant positive effect on consumption, whereas interest rates have played a minimal role in consumption. Results also show that rising house prices have had a negative effect on consumption, indicating that high housing prices trigger the crowding-out effect on consumption and in turn contribute to sluggish economic growth. The findings of this study provide the government in Taiwan with policy implications for directing housing prices in ways that facilitate both long-term housing affordability and economic sustainability. Further, this paper explains that, across countries, differences among homeowners’ home-equity “cash-out” behaviors may help explain the differences among the behaviors’ diverse effects on consumption. Results of this study not only empirically strengthen academia’s knowledge of housing
    prices’ effects on consumption, but also suggest that the policy-driven development or promotion of home-equity financing may enhance consumption and revive flagging
    economies.
    Relation: MOST 103-2410-H-004-175
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 國科會研究計畫

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