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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/109725


    Title: 原產地規則、服務業貿易障礙與區域整合經濟評估: 以ECFA為 例
    Authors: 陳坤銘;蔡孟佳;楊書菲
    Contributors: 國貿系
    Keywords: 原產地規則;FTA 利用率;ECFA;台灣;中國
    Rules of Origin;FTA Utilization;ECFA;Taiwan;China
    Date: 2015
    Issue Date: 2017-05-17 16:28:13 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究目的在於重新評估兩岸商品貿易自由化以及服務業貿易自由化業之經濟效益。在商品貿易自由化方面,本研究首先探討原產地規則以及其他因素對自由貿易協定(FTA)優惠利用率之影響,並在評估FTA經濟效益時將優惠利用率納入實證模型之中。 在服務業貿易自由化方面,本研究應用隨機重力模型,分析各國服務業貿易之決定因素,並估計各國服務業貿易障礙之幅度;然後模擬分析未來兩岸服務貿易自由化之可能經濟效益。本研究實證結果顯示,兩岸貨品貿易自由化或服務貿易自由化之結果,對台灣或是中國大陸之實質GDP、進出口、社會整體福利水準皆有正向之影響,尤以台灣相對受益程度遠較中國大陸顯著。惟若未考慮FTA優惠之實際利用情況,有可能大幅高估貨品貿易自由化所帶來之經濟效益。最後,相對於商品貿易自由化,兩岸實施服務貿易自由化之經濟效益似乎十分有限。
    This study attempts to reevaluate the economic effects of cross-strait trade liberalization in goods as well as services. Regarding trade liberalization in goods, we first examine the impact of rules of origin and other determinants on the utilization of a free trade agreement (FTA). The utilization rates are then incorporated into the empirical model for evaluating the economic effects of an FTA. Regarding the trade liberalization in services, we first apply stochastic gravity model to examine the determinants of bilateral trade in services among nations and then measure the tariff equivalents of their trade barriers. Based on the estimates of tariff equivalents of trade barriers in services, we subsequently investigate the possible impact of cross-strait trade liberalization in service sectors. Our empirical results indicate that crossstrait trade liberalization in goods or services will bring forth positive impact on the real GDP, export, import and social welfare of Taiwan and Mainland China in general, and Taiwan in particular. However, if the actual utilization rates of an FTA are not taken into account, the economic
    benefits from trade liberalization in goods will be significantly overestimated. In addition, in contrast to
    trade liberalization in goods, the economic benefits from cross-strait trade liberalization in services seem to be very limited.
    Relation: MOST 103-2410-H-004-016
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 國科會研究計畫

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