Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
|Title: ||赴日本旅遊的影響因素—Panel Data的分析方法|
Determinants of inbound travel to Japan -- the Panel Data approach
Lo, Vance Kuang-Ta
Panel Data Analysis
|Issue Date: ||2017-07-03 14:45:15 (UTC+8)|
此報告採用Panel Data分析方法中的固定效應模式來評估觀光收入與觀光價格以及主要事件與相關政策對於國際觀光客的影響，研究對象以十一個亞洲國家到日本旅遊為例。此研究發現觀光需求易受到觀光客出發國家以及目的國家的旅遊價格影響。此研究發現需求的收入彈性係數為+3.041，需求的收價格彈性係數為-0.486，表示對國際觀光客而言，赴日旅遊是較昂貴的商品，觀光客的價格較不彈性。此外, 有關當局預估福島核災事件在2011年會減少觀光客人次至2,765,669，而2015年的外國觀光客免稅購物政策則導致國際觀光客入境人次2,115,519。此研究發現免簽證觀光的延長政策以及對日本的重大抗議對於國際觀光客入境日本並無顯著影響。
International tourism has become a significant source of economic growth for many developed countries that have encountered slowdowns in domestic economic productivity. The Japanese government has begun, in recent years, to promote inbound tourism in an effort to stimulate its own stagnant economic growth. This paper discusses tourism trends and policies the government could implement to increase the number of tourists and become the “tourism-oriented country” it aspires to be.
This paper adopts a Panel Data Analysis with Fixed Effects model to estimate the impact of tourist income and tourism price as well as major events and policy on international tourist arrivals to Japan from 11 Asian countries. The paper finds that tourism demand is sensitive to both origin country income and destination country price. Income elasticity of demand is found to be +3.041 and price elasticity of demand to be -0.486 implying travel to Japan is considered a luxury good and that visitors are price inelastic. Further, the Fukushima nuclear disaster is estimated to have reduced international arrivals by 2,765,669 in its aftermath in 2011 and the implementation of tax-free shopping for foreign visitors led is estimated to have increased international arrivals by 2,115,519 in 2015. The paper finds the expansion of visa exempt travel and major protests against Japan to have no significant impact on international arrivals.
|Reference: ||Agrusa, J., Kim, S.S., Wang, K-C. (2011). Mainland Chinese Tourists to Hawaii: Their Characteristics and Preferences. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 28(3), 261-278.|
Alvarez-Diaz, M., Gonzalez-Gomez, M., Otero-Giraldez, M. (2012). Estimating International Tourism Demand to Spain Separately by the Major Source Markets. Working Paper, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
APEC. (2014). Recent Progress in Tourism Policy in Japan: Policies for Economic and Social Return. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Fourth Tourism Working Group Meeting, Cusco, Peru, 9-10 April. Agenda Item 18.
Arvis, J-F, Shepherd, B. (2011). The Air Connectivity Index: Measuring Integration in the Global Air Transport Network. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5722. Retrieved on March 21 from URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1876298
Bank of Japan. (2016). Economic Impact of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games. January 2016. Retrieved from https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/brp/ron_2016/data/ron160121b.pdf
Betros, C. (2014). Tax-Free Shopping Gets a Boost. Japan Today. Retreived on March 14, 2017 from URL: https://www.japantoday.com/category/executive-impact/view/tax-free-shopping-gets-a-boost
Bix HP. (2013). Japan under Neonationalist, Neoliberal Rule: Moving toward an Abyss? The Asia Pacific Journal, 11(15), 1–16.
Bunghez, C.L. (2016). The Importance of Tourism to a Destination's Economy. Journal of Eastern Europe Research in Business & Economics, Article ID 143495 DOI: 10.5171/2016.143495. Retrieved on March 13, 2017 from URL: http://ibimapublishing.com/articles/JEERBE/2016/143495/143495.pdf
Chang, R., Kivela, J., Mak, A. (2010). Food Preferences of Chinese Tourists. Annals of Tourism Research, 37(4), 989–1011.
Chen, K-H., Yang, H-Y. (2010). Appraising the Economic Impact of the “Opening up to Mainland Chinese Tourist Arrivals” Policy on Taiwan with a Tourism-CGE Model. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 15(2), 155-175.
Cohen, E., Neal, M. (2010). Coinciding Crises and Tourism in Contemporary Thailand. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(5), 455-475.
Crouch, G. (1994). Price Elasticities in International Tourism. Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 17(3), 27-39.
Development Bank of Japan. (2014). 2014 Survey of Travellers to Japan from Eight Asian. Regions. Development Bank of Japan: Tokyo.
Dill, Kathryn. (2014). Japan Tops 2014 Ranking of Strongest Country Brands. Forbes.com. Retrieved from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kathryndill/2014/11/12/japan-tops-2014-ranking-of-the-strongest-country-brands/#6be6fd5a3c61
Doran, R., Larsen, S. (2016). The Relative Importance of Social and Personal Norms in Explaining Intentions to Choose Eco-Friendly Travel Options. International Journal of Tourism Research, 18(2), 159–166.
Drifte R. (2014). The Japan-China Confrontation over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands: Between ‘Shelving’ and ‘Dispute Escalation’. The Asia-Pacific Journal 30(3), 1–60.
The Economist. (2014). Coming to a Beach Near You. The Economist. Retrieved on March 8, 2017 from: http://www.economist.com/news/international/21601028-how-growing-chinese-middle-class-changing-global-tourism-industry-coming
Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. (2011). The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report. PublicAffairs. New York, NY. Retrieved from: https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=XnD_AgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PR5&dq=financial+crisis&ots=TmFuDrTHgv&sig=CtoTsJ_jpQfI3MO0WZc7LagQxJw#v=onepage&q=financial%20crisis&f=false
Foreign Press Center. (2016). Report: Inbound Tourism in Japan and Japan's New Tourism Strategy by Ms. Akiko Yoshida, JNTL Executive Vice President. Available at http://fpcj.jp/en/ worldnews-en/briefings-en/p=42489 (accessed 4 August 2016).
Guardian. (2016). Up to 70% of People in Developed Countries 'Have Seen Incomes Stagnate'. The Guardian. July 13, 2016. Retrieved on March 13, 2017 from URL: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/14/up-to-70-per-cent-people-developed-countries-seen-income-stagnate
Habibi, F., Abbasinejad, H. (2011). Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of European Tourism Demand in Malaysia. Iranian Economic Review, 15-29, Spring 2011, 27-41.
Hakuhodo. (2012). Report on Perceptions of Travel to Japan in 6 East Asian Cities. Global Habit. February 24 Volume 2.
Hawkinson, Eric. (2013). Social Media for International Inbound Tourism in Japan: A Research Model for Finding Effective eWOM Mediums. 日本国際観光学会論文集（第20号）. March 2013 41-48
Henderson, Joan C. (2013). The Great East Japan Earthquake and Tourism: A Preliminary Case Study. Tourism Recreation Research 38(1), 93–98.
Henderson, Joan C. (2016). Muslim Travelers, Tourism Industry Responses and the Case of Japan. Tourism Recreation Research. 41(3), 339-347. Retrieved on March 15, 2017 from URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02508281.2016.1215090
Henderson, Joan C. (2017). Destination Development: Trends in Japan's Inbound Tourism. International Journal of Tourism Research. 19(1), 89–98. Retrieved on March 15, 2017 from URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jtr.2088/full
Hernandez, J., Guo, O., McMorrow, R. (2017). South Korean Stores Feel China’s Wrath as U.S. Missile System Is Deployed. New York Times. March 9, 2017. Retreived from URL on March 13, 2017: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/world/asia/china-lotte-thaad-south-korea.html
Hiyama, H., Presse, A.F. (2013). Jobs In Japan's Legendary Manufacturing Sector Fall To A 50-Year Low. Business Insider. Retrieved on March 13 from URL: http://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-in-japans-legendary-manufacturing-sector-fall-to-a-50-year-low-2013-2
Horne, J.D. (2004). Accounting for Mega-Events, Forecast and Actual Impacts of the 2002 Football World Cup Finals on the Host Countries Japan/Korea. International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 39(2), 187-203.
Houdek, P., Koblovský, P. (2015). Where is My Money? New Findings in Fiscal Psychology. Social Science and Public Policy, 52(2), 155-158.
Hsu, T-K., Tsai, Y-F., Wu, H-H. (2009). The Preference Analysis for Tourist Choice of Destination: A Case Study of Taiwan. Tourism Management, 30(2), 288-297.
Huang S. (2011). Nation-Branding and Transnational Consumption: Japan-Mania and the Korean Wave in Taiwan. Media, Culture and Society, 33(1), 3-18.
Japan National Tourism Organization. (2009). Foreign Visitors and Japanese Departures. Retrieved on March 14, 2017 from URL: https://www.jnto.go.jp/eng/ttp/sta/PDF/E2009.pdf
Japan National Tourism Organization. (2016). Foreign Visitors and Japanese Departures. Retrieved on March 14, 2017 from URL: https://www.jnto.go.jp/eng/ttp/sta/PDF/E2016.pdf
Japan Tourism Agency. (2016). White Paper on Tourism in Japan, 2016. Retrieved on March 17 from URL: http://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001141408.pdf
Kim, H.J., Chen, M-H., Jang, S.C. (2005). Tourism Expansion and Economic Development: The Case of Taiwan. Tourism Management, 27(5), 925-933.
Kim, S.S., Guo, Y., Agrusa, J. (2005). Preference and Positioning Analyses of Overseas Destinations by Mainland Chinese Outbound Pleasure Tourists. Journal of Travel Research, 44(2), 212-220.
Konovalova, A , Vidishcheva, E. (2013). Elasticity of Demand in Tourism and Hospitality. European Journal of Economic Studies, 4(2), 84-89.
Koo, Min Gyo. (2009). The Senkaku/Diaoyu Dispute and Sino-Japanese Political-economic Relations: Cold Politics and Hot Economics?. The Pacific Review, 22(2), 205-232.
Kuo, Hsiao-I, Chi-Chung Chen, Wei-Chun Tseng, Lan-Fen Ju, Bing-Wen Huang. (2008). Assessing Impacts of SARS and Avian Flu on International Tourism Demand to Asia. Tourism Management, 29 (5), 917-928.
Lee, C-C., Chien, M-S. (2008). Structural Breaks, Tourism Development, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Taiwan. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 77(4), 358-368.
Levine-Weinberg, A. (2016). U.S. Airlines Get Improved Access to Tokyo: Who Wins?. The Motley Fool. Retreived on March 21, 2017 from URL: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/06/us-airlines-get-improved-access-to-tokyo-who-wins.aspx
Li, SN, Blake, A, Cooper C. (2010). China’s Tourism in a Global Financial Crisis; A Computable General Equilibrium Approach. Current Issues in Tourism, 13(5), 435-453.
Lim, Christine (2004). The Major Determinants of Korean Out-bound Travel to Australia. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64 (3/4), 477-85.
Masiero, L., Nicolau, J. (2012). Price Sensitivity to Tourism Activities: Looking for Determinant Factors, Tourism Economics, 18(4), 675-689.
Mawioo, M.J., Kagiri, A.W. (2015). Strategic Factors Influencing the Destination Choice for Domestic Tourists in Kenya. International Journal of Science and Research, 4(11), 279-285.
McKinnon, R. (2007). Japan’s Deflationary Hangover: Wage Stagnation and the Syndrome of the Ever-Weaker Yen. Singapore Economic Review, 52(3), 309-334.
McKinsey. (2016). The Future of Japan’s Tourism: Path for Sustainable Growth Towards 2020. McKinsey Japan and Travel, Transport and Logistics Practice. Retrieved on March 5, 2017
Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry. (2014). Revised Consumption Tax Exemption (Tax free) Program for Foreign Visitors to Start. Retrieved on March 14, 2017 from URL: http://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2014/0929_02.html
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan. (2017). Recent Visa Relaxations
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. (2016). International Air Transport. Retrieved on March 15, 2017 from URL: http://www.mlit.go.jp/koku/15_hf_000018.html
Mizuho Research Institute. (2016). Determining Factors of Inbound Travel to Japan. Retrieved on June 1, 2017 from URL: https://www.mizuhori.co.jp/publication/research/pdf/eo/MEA160411.pdf
Mochizuki, M.M., Porter, S.P. (2013). Japan under Abe: toward Moderation or Nationalism?. The Washington Quarterly, 36(4), 25-41.
Naito, H. (2016). Japan Doubles Goal to 40 million Foreign Tourists in 2020. The Asahi Shimbun. Retrieved from URL: http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201610310055.html
Nobel Prize Selection Committee. (1992). The Prize in Economics in 1992 (Press Release). Retrieved on March 19, 2017 from URL: http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/1992/press.html
Patrick, Hugh. (2015). Japan’s Abenomics Bumps Along. Center for Japanese Economy and Business. Columbia Business School. October 9, 2015. Retrieved from: http://pifs.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Patrick-Japans-Abenomics-Bumps-Along.pdf
Penn, M. (2015). Japan Embraces Muslim Visitors to Bolster Tourism. ALJAZEERA, December 17, 2015, Retrieved on March 20, 2017 from URL: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/12/japan-embraces-muslim-visitors-bolster-tourism-151215112245391.html
Porter, M. E. (1985). The Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. NY: Free Press, 1985.
Ritchie, J. R.B., Amaya Molinar, C. M., Frechtling, D. C. (2010). Impacts of the World Recession and Economic Crisis on Tourism: North America. Journal of Travel Research, 49, 5–15
Ryall, Julian. (2015). Bakugai! Japan's new term for 'explosive' Chinese shoppers. South China Morning Post., December 12 2015, Retrieved from URL: http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/1886280/bakugai-japans-new-term-explosive-chinese-shoppers
Ryan, C., Gu, H. (2009). Tourism in China: Destination, cultures and communities. Routledge, New York, NY.
Ryan, P. (2016). IMF Warns Economic Stagnation Fuelling Populist Politics. ABC News, October, 4, 2016. Retrieved on March 13, 2017 from URL: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-05/imf-warns-economic-stagnation-fuelling-populist-politics/7904326
Saayman, M., Saayman, A. (2008). Determinants of Inbound Tourism to South Africa. Tourism Economics, 14-1, March 2008, 81-96.
Sankei Shimbun. (2012). 韓流の聖地、光と影 脱税など不正 観光客マナー悪化. Retrieved from URL: http://sankei.jp.msn.com/life/news/120122/trd12012221460012-n1.htm
Schultz, J. (2006). Vehicle of the Self: The Social and Cultural Work of the H2 Hummer. Journal of Consumer Culture, 6, (3) 57-86.
Sheldon, P., Dwyer, L. (2010). The Global Financial Crisis and Tourism: Perspectives of the Academy. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 3-4.
Shibata, S. (2017). Re-packaging Old Policies? ‘Abenomics’ and the Lack of An Alternative Growth Model for Japan's Political Economy. Japan Forum. Retreived on March 13 from URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09555803.2017.1284143
Song, H., Lin, S. (2009). Impacts of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Tourism in Asia. Journal of Travel Research, 49, 16–30.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2015). World Economic Situation and Prospects 2015. United Nations. New York, NY.
Wang, Yu-Shan. (2009). “The Impact of Crisis Events and Macroeconomic Activity on Taiwan’s International Inbound Tourism Demand.” Tourism Management, 30 (1), 75-82.
Warner, M. (2011). Whither Japan? Economy, Management and Society. Asia Pacific Business Review, 17(01), 1-5. DOI: 10.1080/13602381.2010.519559
World Bank. (2017). International Tourism, Number of Departures. Retrieved on March 8, 2017 from: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ST.INT.DPRT?locations=CN
World Travel & Tourism Council. (2015). Travel and Tourism Economic Impact 2015 Japan.
World Travel & Tourism Council. (2017). Global Economic Impact and Issues 2017
World Tourism Organization UNWTO. (2016). UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2016 Edition Published: July 2016
Yang, Y., Fik, T., Zhang, J. (2013). Modeling Sequential Tourist Flows: Where is the Next Destination. Annals of Tourism Research, 43 (October 2013), 297-320.
|Source URI: ||http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1049260191|
|Data Type: ||thesis|
|Appears in Collections:||[亞太研究英語博/碩士學位學程(IDAS/IMAS) ] 學位論文|
Files in This Item:
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.