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| Title: | 長壽風險下商品內自然避險策略之探討
Discussion on the natural hedging strategy under longevity risk |
| Authors: | 張建雅
Chang, Chien Ya |
| Contributors: | 黃泓智
張建雅
Chang, Chien Ya |
| Keywords: | 長壽風險
自然避險
商品內避險
現金流免疫
死亡壓縮
Longevity risk
Natural hedging
Cash flow immunization
Mortality compression
Rectangularization of the survival curve |
| Date: | 2016 |
| Issue Date: | 2017-07-11 11:35:52 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在醫療科技與衛生技術飛快地進步下，死亡率不斷改善所帶來不確定產生的長壽風險，已經成為世界各國重視的議題之一，為了因應長壽風險所帶來的衝擊，壽險公司與退休基金發展出多種避險策略，商品內自然避險為其中一種。
本文以淨值免疫和現金流免疫的方法來探討商品內自然避險的效果，發現因為長壽風險造成錯誤定價的緣故，在被保人邁向高年齡時，壽險商品因死亡率改善的效果與一般預期有明顯出入，造成商品保單期間末期自然避險效果消失，本文定義此現象為“壽險反轉效果”，本文並進一步探討其生成原因與解決方法，發現其與亡率改善以及生存曲線矩形化的現象有關，本文接著探討台灣的生存曲線矩形化現象，以釐清“壽險反轉效果”的發生原因。
Thanks to the improvement of technology and medicine, mortality rate has been improved but also triggered the uncertainty of longevity risk, making longevity risk an important issue around the world. In order to decrease longevity risk, the insurers and pension funds has developed several hedging strategies. Natural internally hedging is one of the common hedging strategies.
Some of the insurance products share the concept of Natural internally hedging, such as endowment. The advantage of Natural internally hedging is that it helps the insurer to avoid basis risks and lower the management costs and expenses. However, it fails to be adjustable by varies of the unexpected mortality rate. This thesis will discuss and analyze the trend of cash flow of life insurance and annuity, aiming at establishing principles for insurance product design, which are designated to hedge longevity risk by the offset of the value of life insurance and annuity. During the research, this thesis found that the longevity risk can’t be hedged because the impact of “The reversion of Life product”. The following parts of this thesis discussed the reason why “The reversion of Life product” happened and how to solve it. |
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Redington, Frank M. "Review of the principles of life-office valuations." Journal of the Institute of Actuaries (1952): 286-340.
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Wilmoth, J. and S. Horiuchi. 1999. “Rectangularization Revisited: Variability of Age at Death within Human Populations.” Demography 36(4): 475-495.
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王德睦與李大正 (2009)。臺灣的存活曲線矩型化與壽命延長。人口學刊,36, 1-31。 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
103358026 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1033580264 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
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