The relationship between income uncertainty and current account- take Asian countries as example
|上傳時間: ||2017-08-10 09:39:35 (UTC+8)|
|摘要: ||本文主要目的在於探討亞洲國家所得不確定性與經常帳之間的關聯性。本文延續Adams and Park(2003)、Bernenke(2007)等提出所得不確定性為影響亞洲經常帳的重要因素此論點，實證是否如上所述，所得不確定性為造成亞洲國家高經常帳剩餘水準的重要因素之一。過去雖不乏探討經常帳影響因素的文獻，然而文獻中多採用OECD或全體國家大樣本資料。由於根據國家特性的不同，影響其經常帳的重要因素也有所不同，不同時空背景下所得不確定性對於全球經濟的影響程度也有所不同(Herwartz and Siedenburg,2007)，我們採用不同於過去的樣本做實證。本文採用1990年代後亞洲十國為樣本，依循Fogli and Perri(2013)以相對所得波動度代表所得不確定性，並加入控制變數如平均所得成長率、政府支出波動度、平均通貨膨脹率及貿易開放程度於迴歸式當中。實證結果發現，所得波動性對經常帳效果為正顯著，證實預防性儲蓄理論(precautionary saving)適用於解釋亞洲國家經常帳。迴歸式當中另一顯著的變數為平均所得成長率，與經常帳呈負顯著關係。從估計結果可得出，整體而言亞洲國家樣本特性較接近Roldos(1996)的國家發展階段理論(stages of development hypothesis)中所述之開發中國家的特性，與過去文獻提到歐、美等國家特性具有差異。綜合實證結果以及過去文獻，本文得到的結論為預防性儲蓄動機理論應適用於解釋亞洲國家的高經常帳剩餘現象。|
This thesis aims to investigate the relationship between income uncertainty and current account balance in Asian countries. Following Adams and Park(2003), Bernanke(2007) and more economists’ perspective that income uncertainty is the determining factor that results in Asian countries’ high saving rate, this thesis provides empirical result for the above statement. Though there are literature investigating factors that affect current account balance, those literature are not applicable to our topic because most of them use OECD countries as sample. Since the determining factors of current account may differ in different country groups and under different background (Herwartz and Siedenburg, 2007), we take 10 Asian countries as sample to investigate on our topic. Based on Fogli and Perri’s (2015) method, we adopt relative volatility of GDP growth in representing uncertainty in the real world, and consider average GDP growth, volatility of government consumption growth, inflation, openness as other control variables. Our empirical result shows that GDP volatility is positively and significantly related to current account, which justifies the applicability of the precautionary saving theory in Asian countries. In addition, among other variables, average GDP growth demonstrates negative and significant impact on current account. Overall, the result is in consistent with the characteristic of “developing countries” implied by the stages of development hypothesis (Roldos, 1996), which is different from European and American countries’ suggested in past literature. Combining the empirical result and past literature, this thesis concludes that Asian countries’ high current account level is attributable to precautionary saving motive.
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