|題名: ||政黨代表性、政黨極化與民主滿意度： 跨國調查資料的分析|
Party Representation, Party Polarization, and Satisfaction with Democracy: A Cross-National Analysis
Eric Chen-hua Yu
Satisfaction with democracy
Hierarchical generalized linear model
|上傳時間: ||2017-08-28 11:50:53 (UTC+8)|
|摘要: ||民主品質不僅可從民主滿意度上探知，亦可自代表性上看到端倪，不具備良好代表性的民主政體稱不上一個好的民主政體。其中，代表性有多種形式，而本文的代表性是政黨代表性，即選民與最親近政黨的意識型態位置差距，距離越小，代表性越好。現代政黨在民主體制運作下，不僅是介於政府與公民社會之間的重要橋樑，也是民主政治的核心議題，因此政黨代表性至關重要，但民主國家的政黨體系非單一政黨的運作，不同政黨間的意識型態和政策競爭，會影響選民對民主體制的評價。本文關心的問題是：選民如何看待政黨意識型態（或政策）定位與個人定位的差異？如此的差異是否會對民主政治的運作造成負面評價？若個人與政黨恰好契合，則政黨擁有完美代表性，個人亦有一個完美的政治代表，選民應滿意民主政治的運作。但在經驗世界中，選民與政黨的互動關係有點複雜，政黨會有意識型態和政策立場變動方向與選民不一致的問題。過往的文獻揭露，低民主滿意度不僅出現在極化（離心競爭）的政黨體系中，亦出現在向心競爭的政黨體系下。為什麼民主滿意度偏低的現象會共同出現在極化競爭和向心競爭的政黨體系下？向心競爭是個問題嗎？首先，極化競爭時，中間選民沒有選擇；另外，向心競爭時，政黨立場過於模糊使得選民難以選擇。是以本文提出兩項研究假設：（1）個人的政黨代表性越高，民主滿意度越高；（2）個人的政黨極化感知程度與民主滿意度呈現開口向下拋物線關係，也就是說，選民個人覺得國內政黨意識型態過於趨同，會不滿意於民主體制的運作，或者個人覺得政黨意識型態過度極化，也會不滿意於民主體制的運作，而是在一個適當的極化程度下，民主滿意度達到最高。並使用The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems（CSES） Module 4的調查資料搭上階層廣義線性模型驗證假設。研究發現，代表性越好民主滿意度越高，但政黨極化程度卻是在向心競爭下有較好的民主滿意度。|
Satisfaction with democracy (SWD) is a well-known index to reflect the quality of democracy. Yet, there exist some debates about the external validity of SWD. In modern democracies, political party can be regarded as a bridge between the government and the electorate. Thus, the extent to which parties represent the electorate has become a critical issue. In this study, I measure the distance between a voter’s self-evaluated ideological position and his/her perceived closest party position as the measure of “party representation”. Meanwhile, the dynamic of party competition may also affect how the electorate evaluates the way democracy works. Recent studies show that lower SWD may appear in both the center-seeking type and center-fleeting types of party competition. Why does lower SWD can be appeared in the two completely different patterns of party competition? What could be the problems caused by the center-seeking or center-fleeting competition? Such as, if parties choose a center-seeking competition strategy, voters may feel that the ideological positions of parties are too ambiguous to be identified; on the other hand, if parties choose a center-fleeting competition strategy, those voters in the center may be forced to choose polarized parties. These two situations may have negative impacts on satisfaction with democracy. Thus, I raise two hypotheses: (1) the higher the party representation, the higher SWD is; (2) the relationship between party polarization and SWD is non-linear but a concave curve—that is, the highest SWD is between at the minimum and maximum values of party polarization. I test these two hypotheses by using the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) Module 4 survey data and hierarchical generalized linear model in R. My empirical results show that party representation indeed has a positive impact on SWD whereas the relationship between polarization and SWD is barely concave.
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