English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 91280/121421 (75%)
Visitors : 25389884      Online Users : 77
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/112272


    Title: 六個東協國家國際收支的決定因素研究: 以Panel Data分析法
    The Determinants of Balance of Payments in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis
    Authors: 夏英杰
    Contributors: 莊奕琦
    Chuang, Yih-Chyi
    夏英杰
    Keywords: 收入平均
    凱因斯主義分析法
    貨幣分析法
    面板數據
    Balance of payments
    Keynesian approach
    Monetary approach
    Panel data
    Date: 2017
    Issue Date: 2017-08-28 12:06:57 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.
    This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.
    Reference: Adamu, Patricia A. (2007). Balance of payment adjustment: The west African monetary zone experience. Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(2), 100-116.
    Akpansung, Aniekan O. (2013). A review of empirical literature on balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 4(2), 124-132.
    Ali, Arfan, Shukui, Tan, Selvarathnam, Santhirasegaram, Xiaolin, Xu & Sabor, Abdul. (2008). Political stability and balance of payment: An empirical study in Asia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(9), 1149-1157.
    Bird, Graham. (1981). Balance of payment stabilisation in developing countries. Odi Working paper, 5. Retrieved from: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/6831.pdf
    Blanchard, Oliver & Johnson, David. (2013). Macroeconomics (6rd ed.) London: Pearson.
    Brown, Denis, & Bidemi, Joseph. (2015). Fiscal policy measures and balance of payments in Nigeria. Journal of Global Economics, 3(4), 1-6.
    Daniels, Joseph & VanHose, David. (2005). International monetary and financial Economics (3rd ed.) New York: Mc Graw Hill.
    Dornbusch, Rudiger & Standley Fischer. (1995). Macroeconomics (6th ed.) United States of America: Thomson Shouth-Western.
    Duasa, Jarita. (2004). The Malaysian balance of payments: Keynesian Approach Versus Monetary Approach. Retrieved from http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/scescecf4/26.htm
    Dullien, Sebastian, Kotle, Detlef J., Marques, Alejandro, Priewe Jan. (2010). The financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 and developing countries. New York: United Nations.
    Fleermuys, FN (2005). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: An econometric study of Namibia. Dea Research Discusion Paper, 72. Retrieved from: http://www.the-eis.com/data/RDPs/RDP72.pdf
    Froyen, Richard T. (1996). Macroeconomics: Theory and policies (5th ed.). United States of America: Prentice-Hall.
    Gujarati, Damodar. (2003). Basic econometrics (4th ed.). New York: Mc Graw Hill.
    Ismalia, Mohammed, & Imoughele, Lawrence.E. (2015). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Public Policy and Governance, 2(1), 1-15.
    Iyoboyi, Martins. (2014). Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence of Nigeria. Research Article, Cogent Economics and Finance, 2. Retrieved from: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23322039.2014.923323
    Keyle, John. F. (1976). The balance of payment in a monetary economy. United Kingdom: Princeton University Press.
    Mankiw, N. Gregory., & David Romer. (eds). (1991). New Keynesian economics volume 1: Imperfect competition and sticky prices. London. England: The MIT Press.
    Masdjojo, Gregorius, N. (2008). Study of Keynesian approach and Monetary approach to the international reserve dynamics: Empirical study in Indonesia during the period of 1983-2008. Dissertation. Semarang, Indonesia: Diponegoro University.
    Nopirin. (1999). International economics. Yogyakarta, Indonesia: BPFE Yogyakarta.
    Tijani, Julius. O. (2014). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. Medditeranean Journal of Social Science, 5(14). 67-76.
    Umer, Muhammad, Muhammad, Sulaiman. D., Abro, Alif Asif, Sheikh, Qurrra-Tul-Ain Ali., & Ghazali, Ahmad. (2010). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: Econometric evidence from Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 32, 210-219.
    Widarjono, Agus. (2007). Econometrics: Theory and application (3rd ed.). Yogyakarta, Indonesia: Ekanesia.
    Wright, David McCords. (1961). The Keynessian system. New York City: Fordham University Pers.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
    104266018
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104266018
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES) ] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File SizeFormat
    601801.pdf1099KbAdobe PDF174View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback