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    题名: 六個東協國家國際收支的決定因素研究: 以Panel Data分析法
    The Determinants of Balance of Payments in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis
    作者: 夏英杰
    贡献者: 莊奕琦
    Chuang, Yih-Chyi
    夏英杰
    关键词: 收入平均
    凱因斯主義分析法
    貨幣分析法
    面板數據
    Balance of payments
    Keynesian approach
    Monetary approach
    Panel data
    日期: 2017
    上传时间: 2017-08-28 12:06:57 (UTC+8)
    摘要: This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.
    This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.
    參考文獻: Adamu, Patricia A. (2007). Balance of payment adjustment: The west African monetary zone experience. Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration, 10(2), 100-116.
    Akpansung, Aniekan O. (2013). A review of empirical literature on balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, 4(2), 124-132.
    Ali, Arfan, Shukui, Tan, Selvarathnam, Santhirasegaram, Xiaolin, Xu & Sabor, Abdul. (2008). Political stability and balance of payment: An empirical study in Asia. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(9), 1149-1157.
    Bird, Graham. (1981). Balance of payment stabilisation in developing countries. Odi Working paper, 5. Retrieved from: https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/odi-assets/publications-opinion-files/6831.pdf
    Blanchard, Oliver & Johnson, David. (2013). Macroeconomics (6rd ed.) London: Pearson.
    Brown, Denis, & Bidemi, Joseph. (2015). Fiscal policy measures and balance of payments in Nigeria. Journal of Global Economics, 3(4), 1-6.
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    Keyle, John. F. (1976). The balance of payment in a monetary economy. United Kingdom: Princeton University Press.
    Mankiw, N. Gregory., & David Romer. (eds). (1991). New Keynesian economics volume 1: Imperfect competition and sticky prices. London. England: The MIT Press.
    Masdjojo, Gregorius, N. (2008). Study of Keynesian approach and Monetary approach to the international reserve dynamics: Empirical study in Indonesia during the period of 1983-2008. Dissertation. Semarang, Indonesia: Diponegoro University.
    Nopirin. (1999). International economics. Yogyakarta, Indonesia: BPFE Yogyakarta.
    Tijani, Julius. O. (2014). Monetary policy and balance of payment stability in Nigeria. Medditeranean Journal of Social Science, 5(14). 67-76.
    Umer, Muhammad, Muhammad, Sulaiman. D., Abro, Alif Asif, Sheikh, Qurrra-Tul-Ain Ali., & Ghazali, Ahmad. (2010). The balance of payments as a monetary phenomenon: Econometric evidence from Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 32, 210-219.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
    104266018
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104266018
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES)] 學位論文

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