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    題名: 資訊扭曲在英國選民脫歐抉擇之角色
    The Role of Information Distortion in the Brexit Referendum
    作者: 林琮紘
    Lin, Tsung Hung
    貢獻者: 盧倩儀
    Lin, Tsung Hung
    關鍵詞: 英國脫歐公投
    Brexit referendum
    Voting choice
    Issue voting behavior
    Information distortion
    Micro-level analysis
    日期: 2018
    上傳時間: 2018-03-02 11:54:49 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 2016年的英國脫歐公投,最終以51.89%比48.11%的差距,決定了英國脫歐的命運。各界紛紛揣測各種可能造成民眾投下脫歐一票的原因,包含個人經濟狀況、政黨認同、受民粹操控、反菁英、對歐洲認同等。本文針對既有研究中尚存在之空缺,聚焦「議題投票取向」對選民投票抉擇的影響,探究脫歐陣營對資訊的扭曲是否對選民的投票抉擇有顯著影響。論文就脫歐派針對國民健保、移民、脫歐後的英國對外經貿、失業率、勞工權益保障與是否能無條件持續享有歐盟單一市場好處這六項議題,透過「二分勝算對數模型」進行分析,從個體層次行為來瞭解資訊扭曲對選民在脫歐公投中投票行為的影響。
    In the Brexit referendum held in June 2016, 51.89 per cent of the voter voted Leave and 48.11 per cent voted Remain. The result sealed the fate of the UK as an outsider of the European Union. While the reasons behind voter’s choice to leave the EU remain disputed, individual voter’s socio-economic status, party identification, populism, anti-elite mood, and identity toward European were among the most frequently listed factors. In order to fill the gap that existing researchs has left, this thesis focuses on the significance of “issue voting” in voting behavior. It discusses if the distortion of information by the Leave campaign had a significant impact on people’s voting choice. It uses the “logistic regression model” to analyse six issues brought about by the Leave campaign. They include the NHS, immigration, trading arrangements with other nations, unemployment, working conditions for British workers, and unconditional maintaining of all the benefits from the EU. By focusing on the individual level, I try to investigate how the distortion of information has impacted upon people’s voting behavior in the Brexit referendum.
    The study shows that against the background of an increased flow of immigrants and heightened anti-globalization mood, voters had a strong sense of insecurity. Under such circumstances, the Leave campaign exploited the opportunity to incite voters on issues they cared most about, manipulated information during the demagogic campaign, and misled people on their voting decision. In addition, the model also demonstrates that voters’ socioeconomic status and mental cognizance have the same effect on people’s voting behavior. In the nutshell, this thesis uses micro-level analysis to investigate voter behavior in the Brexit referendum. It brings in “information distortion” as a key variable in explaining voter behavior, a variable largely neglected in the existing literature on issue voting.
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    描述: 碩士
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104252017
    資料類型: thesis
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