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政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Department of Finance > Periodical Articles > Item 140.119/117550

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/117550

Title:	Do the Pure Martingale and Joint Normality Hypotheses Hold for Futures Contracts? Implications for the Optimal Hedge Ratios
Authors:	陳聖賢 Chen, Sheng-Syan Lee, Cheng-few Shrestha, Keshab
Contributors:	財管系
Keywords:	Hedge ratio;Pure martingale hypothesis;Joint normality hypothesis
Date:	2008
Issue Date:	2018-06-11 17:19:42 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	It is well known that the optimal hedge ratios derived based on the mean-variance approach, the expected utility maximizing approach, the mean extended-Gini approach, and the generalized semivariance approach will all converge to the minimum-variance hedge ratio if the futures price follows a pure martingale process and if the spot and futures returns are jointly normal. In this paper, we perform empirical tests to see if the pure martingale and joint normality hypotheses hold using 25 different futures contracts and five different hedging horizons. Our results indicate that the pure martingale hypothesis holds for all commodities and all hedging horizons except for three stock index futures contracts. As for joint normality, we propose two new tests based on the generalized method of moments, which allow for calculating multivariate test statistics that take account of the contemporaneous correlation across spot and futures returns. Our findings show that the joint normality hypothesis generally does not hold except for a few contracts and relatively long hedging horizons.
Relation:	Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol.48, No.1, pp.153-174
Data Type:	article
DOI link:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2005.10.002
DOI:	10.1016/j.qref.2005.10.002
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Finance] Periodical Articles

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