English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 109952/140903 (78%)
Visitors : 46040314      Online Users : 1280
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/117710


    Title: 中國城市不動產價格泡沫之比較探討
    Authors: 黃斐
    Huang, Fei
    林左裕
    Lin, Tsoyu Calvin
    Contributors: 地政系
    Keywords: 不动产价格泡沫，基本价值，资本还原率
    Housing Bubble;Fundamental Value;Capitalization Rate
    Date: 2016-10
    Issue Date: 2018-06-13 17:36:43 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 在中国大陆贷款利率及不动产相关税负长期偏低之下，住宅产品的投资需求不断上升，使得房价一路高涨。截至2010年，中国大陆推出一系列以抑制房价为主要目的的宏观调控政策。由于中国大陆地幅辽阔，各地的不动产市场因受各种因素影响而发展各异，因此本文选择了北京、上海、广州三个具区域发展代表性的重点城市作为研究对象。本文以基本价值与市场价格间的差距作为泡沫程度的估计，计算这三个城市2007年至2012年的房价泡沫情况。藉由这三个城市的不动产市场泡沫情况，通过共整合分析来探讨中国城市不动产价格泡沫的影响因素。实证结果显示，人均可支配收入、金融机构各项信贷总额都与不动产价格泡沫具有正向关系，不动产价格泡沫则对其本身具有负面影响，而抵押贷款利率与不动产价格泡沫先是正向而后转为负向的关系。研究结果建议政府在针对不同城市之房价泡沫处理上，宜针对城市的特性对症下药，方可能得到预期的政策效果。
    The long-term low interest rates for mortgages and the real estate related taxes in China continuously encouraged the investment demand for housing products, and consequently resulted in high housing prices. Chinese government launched a series of housing regulation to dampen the over-heating real estate market since 2010. Given that China has a vast territory of great variety, the impact of these policy tools on different local real estate markets may vary. The purpose of this study aims to explore the real estate bubbles and the determinants in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. We measured the housing bubbles in these cities from 2007 to 2012 by comparing the fundamental values with market prices. Based on the estimated housing bubbles, we then applied the Cointegration analysis to further explore the factors contributing to the housing bubbles in three cities. The empirical results show that disposable income and total mortgage loans of financial institutions are positively related to China’s housing bubbles. In addition, the impact of loan interest on housing bubbles was positive first and then turns negative with respect to the magnitude of increasing rates. Results of this study suggest that macro policy tools to curb bubbles should consider different characteristics of cities for plausible policy results.
    Relation: Finance 金融, Vol.6, No.4, pp.1-18
    Data Type: article
    DOI 連結: http://www.hanspub.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=18755abstract
    DOI: 10.12677/FIN.2016.64014
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 期刊論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    FIN20160400000_26399789.pdf2001KbAdobe PDF2256View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback