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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/118873

    Title: Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models
    Authors: Tai, Chung-Ching
    Lin, Hung-Wen
    Chie, Bin-Tzong
    Contributors: 國家發展研究所
    Keywords: Combining forecasts;Support vector machine;Decision trees;Principal component analysis;Discriminant analysis;Imbalanced data;Oversampling;SMOTE
    Date: 2018-06
    Issue Date: 2018-07-24 17:27:37 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: Prediction markets have been an important source of information for decision makers due to their high ex post accuracies. Nevertheless, recent failures of prediction markets remind us of the importance of ex ante assessments of their prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a systematic procedure for decision makers to acquire prediction models which may be used to predict the correctness of winner-take-all markets. We commence with a set of classification models and generate combined models following various rules. We also create artificial records in the training datasets to overcome the imbalanced data issue in classification problems. These models are then empirically trained and tested with a large dataset to see which may best be used to predict the failures of prediction markets. We find that no model can universally outperform others in terms of different performance measures. Despite this, we clearly demonstrate a result of capable models for decision makers based on different decision goals.
    Relation: International Journal of Forecasting
    Data Type: article
    DOI 連結: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.04.003
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.04.003
    Appears in Collections:[國家發展研究所] 期刊論文

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