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    Title: 評估2018年台灣嚇阻中國的能力:台灣針對中國侵略的防堵程度如何?
    Assessing Taiwan’s Deterrence against China in 2018. How well does Taiwan deter China from Subjugating the Island?
    Authors: 田予光
    Tierny, Hugo
    Contributors: 袁易
    Yuan, I
    田予光
    Hugo Tierny
    Keywords: 亞太地緣政治
    海峽兩岸關係
    威懾
    威懾理論
    台灣威懾
    台灣 - 中美關係
    Asia pacific geopolitics
    Cross strait relations
    Deterrence
    Deterrence theory
    Taiwan deterrence
    Taiwan – Sino – US relations
    Date: 2018
    Issue Date: 2018-08-01 16:50:45 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 台灣與中國捍衛的目標彼此相互衝突。如果有必要,中國甚至不惜以武力統一台灣,而台灣則是設法抵抗對岸的併吞。中國對台灣施加的壓力隨著蔡英文(民進黨)在2016年當選總統而加劇。
    約翰‧米爾斯海默主張嚇阻是對潛在敵方可行的具體策略,因此,我們必須了解敵方以及防守方的策略,方可分析嚇阻評估條件。也就是說,我們試圖由反對中國對台統一策略以及其盟友的回應,來評估台灣的嚇阻策略。
    本論文試圖以中國對台兩種不同但卻相輔相成的威脅為考量,其一為政治,另一個則為軍事,來解釋台灣的嚇阻策略。政治及軍事形成了一個整體不斷加劇,目標在於促使台北服從北京所開出的條件。
    台灣尚有嚇阻能力,但是關於中國在敵人、高動機、不交戰策略以及不斷增長的軍事力量的錯誤看法的結合,可能會造就嚇阻失效的態勢。美國近期加強與台灣的關係,卻是在中美緊張局勢加劇的情況下發展,這絲毫不是穩定跡象。除此之外,台灣在軍事現代化苦於追趕中國步伐。最後,台灣在逃脫中國所設下不交戰策略的圈套上陷入困境。
    The goals defended by Taiwan and China are in conflict with each other; China wishes to unify, by force if necessary, and Taiwan seeks to resist annexation. The Chinese pressures against Taiwan intensified following the election of Tsai Ing-wen (DPP) in 2016.
    John J. Mearsheimer argues that deterrence is a function of the specific strategy available to the potential attacker. Therefore, one needs to understand both the attacker and the defender’s strategies in order to analyze the condition of a deterrence posture. Accordingly, this thesis will attempt to assess Taiwan’s deterrence by opposing China’s strategies for bringing unification to Taiwan and its allies’ responses.
    This study also aims to cast a new light on Taiwan’s deterrence by considering that the Chinese threat on Taiwan is two-fold, with two separated but mutually reinforcing strategies, one being political, the other military. Both form a consistent whole, an escalation process designed to push Taipei to abide by Beijing terms.
    Taiwan’s deterrence holds but the combination of China’s misperceptions of its adversaries, high motivations, short-of-war tactics, and growing military power could, over the long-term, create the conditions for a deterrence failure. The U.S. has recently tightened its ties to Taiwan but this development takes place amid greater Sino – U.S. tensions, which is hardly a sign of stability. Also, Taiwan is having a tough times to modernize its military at a pace commensurate with that of China. Finally, Taiwan is struggling to escape the trap set by China’s short-of-war tactics.
    Reference: Books

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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
    105926010
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105926010
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.IMAS.005.2018.A07
    Appears in Collections:[亞太研究英語博/碩士學位學程(IDAS/IMAS) ] 學位論文

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