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    Title: 習近平時代的兩岸關係:2013~2017
    Cross-strait relations in the Xi Jinping era: 2013~2017
    Authors: 林靖棠
    Lin, Jing-Tang
    Contributors: 郭武平
    林靖棠
    Lin, Jing-Tang
    Keywords: 兩岸關係
    九二共識
    去中國化
    南向政策
    Cross-strait relations
    1992 Consensus
    De-sinolization
    Southbound policy
    Date: 2018
    Abstract: 自1949年國民政府遷移到臺灣開始,至今已然分治七十年左右,在透過早期國共兩黨的思想教育及控制之下,兩岸人民的想法早已出現南轅北轍的差異,也因如此,兩岸關係發展的方向始終陰晴不定,難以捉摸。然而探究中共歷屆領導人在面對臺灣不同執政黨下的對臺政策,不難發現其始終堅守「一個中國」原則及「和平統一、一國兩制」的基本方針。

    2008年臺灣第二次政黨輪替,馬英九總統在支持「九二共識」前提下,兩岸關係一掃前朝陰霾,與中國大陸開展熱絡的交流互動,除簽署多項ECFA外協議,另表示推動「活路外交」鞏固既有邦交國家。而兩岸破冰後的交流互動成果也讓馬英九總統在2012年順利競選連任成功,此時中國大陸也正由習近平順利接班成為第5代領導人,習近平對於當時兩岸關係的順利發展,表現出「胡規習隨」的態勢。然而兩岸的合作交流在一切看似穩定的時候,卻因臺灣民眾認為兩岸在簽署服務貿易協定時過於草率,質疑執政當局一些政策作為過於親中,進而在2013年引發「318學運」事件,至此國民黨聲勢急轉直下,導致年底九合一選舉中大敗,並且形成第3次政黨輪替,由民進黨籍蔡英文擔任中華民國總統。

    蔡英文總統上任後,在520就職演說中僅表達尊重九二年兩岸雙方的會談歷史事實,等於間接不承認自馬英九政府時期與中共達成的「九二共識」政治基礎,自此兩岸關係逐漸冰封冷凍。蔡英文總統執政時期,在很多層面都可以看見「去中國化」的臺獨主張及作為,另一方面在人民最期待的經濟改革上,提出了「新南向政策」的口號,表示不能對於中國大陸過於依賴。面對民進黨政府上任後的種種政策舉措,中國大陸展開一連串的挑釁、威脅及壓迫的舉動,例如軍機及航母繞臺、減少陸客及陸生來臺、提出多項惠臺政策,吸引臺灣人民赴大陸就業就學,以及在外交上孤立臺灣等手段。面對這些由內而外的困境,蔡英文總統該如何突破兩岸關係的僵局,帶領臺灣人民走向和平、富強的康莊大道,考驗著的是兩岸領導人的智慧與格局。

    本研究主要是從個人、國家及國際層面的現象來探討中共對臺政策。聚焦在現任中共領導人習近平的決策風格與對臺主張、中共對臺組織體系的人事布局、以及兩岸關係在國民黨及民進黨執政下的互動模式與結果,來陳述變與不變的中共對臺政策,進而將這些內外環境變化等因素轉化為習近平對臺政策的分析與問題,從概念本質發展出定義,從而探討中共對臺政策在未來的可能走向及對兩岸關係的影響。

    關鍵字:兩岸關係、九二共識、去中國化、南向政策
    Since the government of the republic of china moved to Taiwan in 1949, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have so far been separated for around 70 years. Through the ideological education and control of the KMT and the CCP, the people's thought on both sides of the strait have long been different from each other. Due to this, the direction of development of cross-strait relations has always been uncertain and elusive. However, it is not difficult to find that the CCP’s previous leaders have always adhered to the "One China" principle and the basic principle of "peaceful reunification and one country, two systems" by exploring their Taiwan policy in the face of Taiwan’s different ruling parties.
    After Taiwan’s second Political party rotation, President Ma Ying-jeou took office and supported the "1992 consensus". Therefore, the development of Cross-Strait relations became revival, including signing multiple ECFA agreements and promoting “Workable Diplomacy” to consolidate existing diplomatic relations. The result of Cross-strait exchange and interaction also made President Ma Ying-jeou successfully get reelected in 2012. At the same time, Xi Jinping also successfully succeeded as the fifth-generation leader in China. Xi Jinping showed the attitude of “following the Hu’s laws” in the smooth development of Cross-Strait relations. When everything seemed to be stable, the "318 Student Movement" was triggered in 2013 for the reason that the Taiwanese people think that it was too sloppy in signing the service trade agreement and questioned some policies of the ruling authorities as being too pro-China. Thus, the support of the Kuomintang Party has declined rapidly, and it led to the KMP’s defeat in the nine-in-one election at the end of the year and the third political party rotation in the president election.
    In the 520 inaugural speech, President Tsai Ing-wen showed respect for historical facts of the talks between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait in 1992, and it meant not indirectly admitting the political foundation of the "1992 Consensus" reached between the Ma Ying-jeou government and the Chinese Communist Party. Since then, cross-strait relations have gradually frozen. During the period of President Tsai Ing-wen’s administration, we can see many Taiwan independence advocates and actions of de-sinolization. Regarding the economic reforms that the people are most looking forward to, President Tsai Ing-wen put forward the slogan of "New Southbound Policy" and stated that Taiwan’s economic cannot rely too much on mainland China. Faced with various policy measures after the DPP government took office, the Mainland China launched a series of provocative, threatening and oppressive movements. For example, the Mainland China assigned military aircraft and aircraft carriers to bypass Taiwan, reduced the number of China visits and students to Taiwan, attracted Taiwanese people to work and study in Mainland China by proposing Taiwan-benefit policies, and isolated Taiwan diplomatically. How can President Tsai Ing-wen break through the deadlock in cross-strait relations and lead the people of Taiwan to a peaceful, prosperous, and prosperous road in these internal and external difficulties? It’s the test of leaders on both sides of the strait.
    This study mainly explores the CCP’s Taiwan policy from the individual, national, and international levels. This study intends to analyze the changing and unchanging CCP's Taiwan policies through focusing on the decision-making style and Taiwan policy advocates of Chinese Communist Party Leader Xi Jinping, the personnel assignment of CCP's organizations dealing with Taiwan affairs, and the Cross-strait exchange interaction model and results under the ruling of the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party. Through the above analysis, we will explore the possible future direction of the CCP’s policy toward Taiwan and its impact on cross-strait relations.

    Keyword: Cross-strait relations, 1992 Consensus, De-sinolization, Southbound Policy
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國家安全與大陸研究碩士在職專班
    105981013
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1059810131
    DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.NSMCS.011.2018.F11
    Appears in Collections:[Master Program in NAtional Security and Mainland China Studies] Theses

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