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| Title: | 臺灣稅收預測探討
Tax Revenue Forecasting in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 楊佩烜
Yang, Pei-Hsuan |
| Contributors: | 陳國樑
Chen, Kuo-Liang
楊佩烜
Yang, Pei-Hsuan |
| Keywords: | 稅收預測
準確性
理性 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| Issue Date: | 2018-08-29 15:58:38 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文以臺灣1984年至2017年稅收預決算資料分析臺灣稅收預測之表現，並探討其預測是否符合「良好預測」須具備之性質。首先，檢視政府現有預估方法，發現依照稅源個別估算加總法係最為準確之預估方式，使用直接預估與採用以前年度預決算數之方法則為最不準確之預測方式，表示根據稅源對於稅收組成做更細緻的估算，結果有助於提高稅收預測的準確度。其次，地方稅之預測表現比國稅差，顯示地方政府在地方稅的稅收預測上有極大的改善空間。以經濟稅基分類下，流通稅的預測表現最差，財產稅雖然其預測準確度為最佳，但卻有明顯低估的現象。另外，透過國際間之稅收預測表現比較，亦顯示臺灣的稅收預測確實有進步之空間。
透過迴歸模型檢驗臺灣稅收預測的性質，發現臺灣稅收預測並未有愈來愈準之趨勢，儘管滿足不偏性，但並沒有滿足弱理性，表示稅收預測並未將其所擁有之資訊充分運用。最後，本文另外利用四種預測方法與政府預測進行指標及檢定比較，結果顯示其他預測方法之稅收預測結果皆不亞於政府預測結果，其中以ARIMA進行之稅收預估更是相對準確。
This paper analyzes the performance of tax revenue forecasts in Taiwan and examines whether tax revenue forecasts correspond to the properties of “good forecasts” in statistics and econometrics. The results suggest that, first, among different tax revenue forecasting methods employed by the Ministry of Finance, the summarization of tax composition by revenue sources is the most accurate forecasting method. On the other hand, ad-hoc forecast or using the previous year`s budget or revenue collected are the most inaccurate forecasting methods, suggesting that forecasting with detailed tax composition improves accuracy. Second, forecasts of local taxes are less accurate than national taxes, representing that local governments have greater room to improve in the qualities of tax revenue forecast. In addition, results from comparing revenue forecast results of 8 other counties, reinforces the need to improve the quality of tax revenue forecasts in Taiwan.
Regression analyses show no signs of improvement of tax revenue forecasts over time; although the null unbiasedness hypothesis tax revenue forecasts cannot be rejected, the forecasts failed the weak rationality test, suggesting that tax revenue forecasts did not utilize all available information. Finally, results from four competing methods are compared to the official forecasts, and we found that there are always more accurate forecasts than the official forecasts, in particular, revenue forecasts by ARIMA seems to provide the most accurate outcome. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
105255011 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105255011 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/THE.NCCU.PF.028.2018.F07 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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