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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/12512


    Title: 最適投資決策與產品生命週期--實質選擇權分析法
    Authors: 廖四郎;陳坤銘;鄭宗松
    Chen, Kun-Ming
    Keywords: 不可回復性;產品生命週期;實質選擇權
    Irreversibility;Product Life Cycle;Real Options Approach
    Date: 2003-09
    Issue Date: 2008-12-03 13:55:21 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文應用實質選擇權分析法探討廠商最適投資決策問題。當投資
    計畫具有不可回復性、時間選擇性及現金流量不確定性時，傳統淨現
    值法無法評價投資計畫的時間與營運彈性，因而低估投資計畫價值。
    本文之特性在於同時將產品生命週期以及市場獨占力之影響納入模型
    中。我們所得之最適投資時點將比淨現值法延後，但是比McDonald
    and Siegel(1986)模型提前。最後，本文利用數值方法探討影響最適投
    資決策的決定因素。本文發現，當廠商獨占力量愈大、產品生命週期
    愈長、不確定程度增加、折現率較低以及當成本與收益函數有負相關
    時，都會提高投資的門檻及其實質選擇權價值，導致最適投資時點往
    後延遲。
    This paper applies a real options approach to analyze optimal
    investment decision. When the investment projects have the characteristics
    of irreversibility, uncertainty and the ability to wait, the traditional Net
    Present Value (NPV) method will underestimate the value of investment,
    since it neglects the values of timing and operational flexibility. The
    distinctive feature of this paper is that the effects of product life cycle as
    well as market power are incorporated into the model. It is shown that the
    optimal waiting of the investment is shorter than the models of McDonald
    and Siegel(1986). Finally, a numerical method is used to analyze the
    determinants of optimal investment decision. Our results indicate that the
    investment-ratio threshold will be higher and thus the optimal entry time
    of the investment will delay when (1)the market power is larger, (2)the
    product life is longer, (3)the uncertainty is larger, (4)the discount rate is
    lower, and (5)the correlation between cost and revenue is more negative.
    Relation: 中山管理評論, 11(3), 571-596
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[Department of International Business] Periodical Articles

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