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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/126595


    Title: 房價與婚育決策之關聯
    The impact of house price on marry and fertility decisions
    Authors: 林雅葶
    Lin, Ya-Ting
    Contributors: 連賢明
    林雅葶
    Lin, Ya-Ting
    Keywords: 房價
    房屋持有
    結婚
    生育
    House price
    Homeownership
    Marry Decisions
    Fertility Decisions
    Date: 2019
    Issue Date: 2019-10-03 17:20:49 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究利用財政部財政資訊中心之稅務資料,分析房價對未婚個人結婚決策及已婚女性家庭生育決策的影響,並檢視房屋持有與否的差異。本文使用房屋持有之工具變數以最小平方法(OLS)進行分析,實證結果顯示,房價變動率的提高對適婚年齡個人之結婚機率有顯著負向的影響,加劇晚婚的現象;同時,男性房屋持有者相較沒有房屋者更有可能結婚,女性房屋持有者的結婚機率則較沒有房屋者低。對婚後三年內的夫妻而言,房價變動率的變動與生育機率之關聯亦是負向的,且婚前提早開始持有房屋的家庭相較於沒有房屋者更願意生育。另一方面,結婚當年的房價變動率對婚後生育子女數有負向的影響,住房成本提高帶來的相對衝擊感可能使夫妻降低其期望子女數。
    結婚買房通常密不可分,年輕人為了買房更有可能延後結婚生子,甚至買不起房就不結婚,進而導致整體生育率的下降。政府應藉由將房價控制在合理範圍內,或是提出降低住房負擔的相關政策,以協助年輕人成家,進而改善低生育率的問題。
    This study uses taxation data from 2008 to 2014 to analyze the impact of housing prices on marriage decisions and fertility decisions, and to examine the differences in whether hold a house or not. We use the Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS) analysis. The empirical results show that the increase in house price change rate has a significant negative impact on the marriage rate. On the other hand, male homeowners are more likely to marry than those without homes, and female homeowners have a lower chance of marriage. For women within three years after marriage, the relationship between house price change rate and fertility rate is also negative, and families who hold houses are more willing to give birth than those who do not. Meanwhile, the rate of house price change in the year of marriage has a negative impact on the number of children born after marriage. Marriage and homeownership are often inseparable in Taiwan. People are more likely to delay marriage and have children in order to buy a house. They will not get married until they can afford a house, which will lead to a decline in the fertility rate. It will be important for government to propose policies which can reduce housing burdens, thereby improving the problem of low fertility rate.
    Reference: 參考文獻
    (一)中文文獻
    林佩萱,2015,〈家戶購屋與生育行為關係:資源排擠與動機刺激〉。《住宅學報》24(1): 89-115。
    林佩萱、張金鶚,2016,〈沒有房子不生孩子?買了房子不敢生孩子?購屋對家戶婚後生育時間影響之研究〉。《臺灣社會學刊》59: 93-138。
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    陳南光、王泓仁,2011,〈資產價格變動對民間消費支出影響效果之研究〉。《中央銀行季刊》33(1): 7-40。
    楊靜利、李大正、陳寬政,2006,〈台灣傳統婚配空間的變化與婚姻行為之變遷〉。《人口學刊》33: 1-32。
    駱明慶,2007,〈台灣總生育率下降的表象與實際〉。《研究臺灣》3: 37-40。


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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政學系
    106255013
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255013
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU201901180
    Appears in Collections:[財政學系] 學位論文

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