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| Title: | 休息時間對網球選手的發球策略影響之探討: 混合策略均衡的檢驗
The Effect of Break Time on Tennis Players` Serving Strategies: Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria |
| Authors: | 呂亦晴
Lu, Yi-Ching |
| Contributors: | 林信助
呂亦晴
Lu, Yi-Ching |
| Keywords: | 混合策略均衡
雙人零和賽局
賽局理論
網球實證
Mixed-Strategy Equilibrium
Two-Person Zero-Sum Game
Game Theory
Empirical research of tennis |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2020-03-02 10:58:15 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文依據Walker and Wooders (2001)一文中的網球發球模型，欲檢驗網球選手在中間休息時間(break time)前後的行為是否不同。選手在休息後，身心狀態通常更好時的發球決策是否會因此更符合混合策略均衡理論中的預期。選手的行為如符合混合策略均衡，則將滿足兩個假設。第一個假設是選手不論採用哪個純策略，其得分機率均相等。第二個假設是選手的發球決策是序列不相關的。不同於先前論文，本文的資料採用更完整的網球賽事資料庫，並更改了發球方向的記錄方式、選手的發球策略，欲使資料更符合比賽實際狀況來探討選手的發球策略。
實證結果發現，女子球員在休息前、後的發球策略並無明顯不同。然兩者皆有很高的比例拒絕序列不相關的檢驗。我們推論因女子的發球能力優勢性不如男子選手，因此需仰賴發球策略的不可預測性，避免被對手預判，也因此有過度變換發球策略的傾向。然而，不同於預期，男子網球員在休息後，其發球策略有序列相關的比例反而明顯提高。或許，男性在激烈的比賽中，休息前可能更多的是依靠直覺去進行比賽，而在休息過後，生理狀態越好，腦中對前一球的印象越清晰，也因此越容易受到前期發球決策的影響。
This study is based on the tennis serving model introduced by Walker and Wooders (2001) to test whether the professional tennis players behave differently in different situations. The players’ physical and mental situations are supposed to be better after the break time; however, do the behaviors of the tennis players conform more closely to the minimax hypothesis after the break time? We test two implications to examine whether players adopt optimal strategies. First, each of the server’s pure strategies yields equal probability of winning. Second, the servers serving decisions are serial independent. We adopt a more comprehensive database and change the method of recording the serving directions and serving strategies. Our empirical results shows that break time does not have a statistically significant effect on female players’ strategies, they tend to reject the serial independence whether serving before or after break time. We conjecture that women’s weaker physical strength causes them to switch the strategies of their serves too often in order to create more uncertainties. However, we find that men players are less able to adopt optimal strategies after the break time which does not meet our expectations. We assume that male players have a clearer picture of their latest decisions when they are in better situations, which is serving after the break time. The more they are familiar with the previous decisions, the more they tend to be influenced by the past serving strategies. |
| Reference: | 一、中文部分
毛尚熠（2006）。乒乓球競賽中的混合策略均衡。(浙江大學政治經濟學系碩士論 文，浙江省杭州市)。取自 http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10335-2006043230.htm。
吳忠芳（2006）。網球單打比賽的生理學分析。運動生理暨體能學報，4，21-28。https://doi.org/10.6127/JEPF.2006.04.03。
馬文韜（2018）。排球扣球與單人攔網博弈的混合策略納許均衡研究。湖北體育科技，38(2)，139-142。
張旭昌（2010）。桂林高校羽毛球專選班學生比賽中的心理研究與應用。西昌學 院學報，自然科學版，24(2)，89-92。
張維仁（1998）。女子網球選手單打比賽心跳率反應及運動負荷強度分析。臺中市：國立中興大學體育室，3，52-68。取自http://hdl.handle.net/11455/72974。
梁龍鏡（2010）。2009東方錶盃女子網球單打正式比賽競賽特徵與心跳率之相關。運動教練科學，17，53-64。https://doi.org/10.6194/SCS.2010.17.05。
莊品珊（2016）。再探極小極大理論在網球比賽的應用：發球及接球能力如何影響選手的發球策略（國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文，台北市）。取自https://hdl.handle.net/11296/ws52q9。
賴正全（2014）。比賽勝負結果下不同比賽類別與時期對男子網球單打比賽心跳率之影響。成大體育學刊，46（2），67-82。 https://doi.org/10.6406/JNCKUPER.201410_46(2).0005。
謝沛蓁（2014）。羽球國家代表隊比賽中場休息 教練回饋 對選手運動表現之影響（國立臺灣師範大學運動競技學系碩士論文，台北市）。取自 https://hdl.handle.net/11296/d7hanq。
二、英文部分
Apesteguia, J., & Palacios-Huerta, I. (2010). Psychological Pressure in Competitive Environments: Evidence from a Randomized Natural Experiment. American Economic Review, 100(5): 2548-64
Bailey, B. J., & McGarrity, J. P. (2012). The effect of pressure on mixed-strategy play in tennis: The effect of court surface on service decisions. International Journal of Business and Social Science 3(20), 11-18.
Chiappori, P. A., Levitt, S., & Groseclose, T. (2002). Testing mixed-strategy equilibria when players are heterogeneous: The case of penalty kicks in soccer. American Economic Review 92, 1138-1151.
Downey, James and Joseph P. McGarrity (2012). The Economics of Crime: The Case of the Stolen Base, Working paper.
Duck, A., & Corlett, J.(1992). Factor affecting university women’s basketball coaches’timeout decisions. Canadian Journal of Sport Sciences, 17(4), 333-337.
Gauriot, R., Page, L. & Wooders, J. (2016) Nash at Wimbledon: Evidence from Half a Million Serves. QuBE Working Papers 046, QUT Business School.
Hsu, S. H., Huang, C. Y., & Tang, C. T. (2007). Minimax play at Wimbledon: comment. The American Economic Review 97(1), 517-523.
O`Neill, B. (1987). Nonmetric test of the minimax theory of two-person zerosum games. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 84(7), 2106-2109.
Palacios-Huerta, I. (2003). Professionals play minimax. The Review of Economic Studies 70(2), 395-415.
Rowe, C. (2013). Testing the Minimax Theorem in the Field: The Interaction between Pitcher and Batter in Baseball. Working paper.
Walker, M., & Wooders, J. (2001). Minimax play at Wimbledon. The American Economic Review 91(5), 1521-1538. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易學系
106351013 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106351013 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202000143 |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文
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