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    政大機構典藏 > 理學院 > 心理學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/129780
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/129780


    Title: Can knowledge of election results change recall of our predictions? Neural correlates of political hindsight bias
    Authors: 顏乃欣
    Yen, Nai-Shing
    陳尹華
    Chen, Yin-Hua
    鄭旭博
    Cheng, Hsu-Po
    盧毓文
    Lu, Yu-Wen
    Northoff, Georg
    Lee, Pei-Hong
    Contributors: 心理系
    Date: 2019-09
    Issue Date: 2020-05-25 15:42:10 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: Hindsight bias (HB) is the tendency to retrospectively exaggerate one’s foresight knowledge about the outcome of an event. Cognitive processes influenced by newly obtained outcome information are used to explain the HB phenomenon, but the neural correlates remain unknown. This study investigated HB in the context of election results using a memory design and functional magnetic resonance imaging for the first time. Participants were asked to predict and recall the percentage of votes obtained by (pairs of) candidates before and after an election. The results revealed that 88% of participants showed HB by recalling that their predictions were closer to the actual outcomes than they really were; and participants had HB for 38% of the events. The HB effect was associated with activation in the medial superior frontal gyrus and bilateral inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), which have been implicated in updating an old belief due to new information and is similar to the process of reconstruction bias. Furthermore, participants with a greater HB effect showed greater activation of the left IFG. In conclusion, we successfully observed the HB phenomenon in election results, and our imaging results suggested that the HB phenomenon might involve reconstruction bias.
    Relation: PLoS ONE, Vol.14, No.10, pp.e0220690
    Data Type: 期刊論文
    DOI 連結: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0220690
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220690
    Appears in Collections:[心理學系] 期刊論文

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