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| Title: | 估計脫歐公投對英國經濟的影響:來自合成控制法的證據
Estimating Brexit-effects on UK’s economic growth: A synthetic control approach |
| Authors: | 羅曼斯
Roggmann, Matthias |
| Contributors: | 楊子霆
Yang, Tzu-Ting
羅曼斯
Matthias Roggmann |
| Keywords: | 英國脫歐
英國
歐洲聯盟
合成控制法
經濟增長
國內生產總值
Brexit
UK
EU
Synthetic control method
Economic growth
GDP |
| Date: | 2020 |
| Issue Date: | 2020-09-02 13:21:11 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes if the decision by the British electorate to leave the European Union had causal
effects on the UK’s economic growth, in particular on the UK’s GDP growth rate as well as the growth rate of different economic sectors. By assuming that Brexit fulfils the conditions of a natural experiment, the synthetic control method is applied, which compares the British GDP growth with a weighted average of countries with similar GDP growth over time. Results imply that Brexit
caused losses in accumulated GDP growth between 5.64% and 8.11% by the end of 2019. A decomposition into individual economic sectors could show, that this output gap is largely caused by a 21.45% loss within the financial and insurance activities. The results hold valid for several
sensitivity and robustness checks and are in accordance with economic theory as well as previous empirical findings. Thereby, this paper contributes to the academic literature by quantifying post-Brexit effects for the British economy and by delivering further evidence about the disadvantages of leaving international trade agreements. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
107266008 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266008 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202001491 |
| Appears in Collections: | [應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程 (IMES)] 學位論文
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