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| Title: | 民之所欲常在我心？民意對越南對美與對中政策之影響
The Influence of Public Opinion on Vietnam’s Policy towards the United States and China |
| Authors: | 阮功松
Tung, Nguyen Cong |
| Contributors: | 黃瓊萩
Huang, Chiung-Chiu
阮功松
Nguyen Cong Tung |
| Keywords: | 越南
美國
中國
民意
議題顯著性
國內政治競爭
Vietnam
the United States
China
Public opinion
Issue salience
Domestic political contestation |
| Date: | 2021 |
| Abstract: | 美國和中國被定位為越南重中之重的夥伴，在政治、安全、經貿等領域皆與越南維持著密切的聯繫。在過去十年間，處理涉及美、中兩國關係逐漸成為越南對外政策的重點工作，不斷考驗越南領袖的智慧。當下越南外交決策者所面臨的挑戰在於：美、中兩強的戰略競爭所帶來的選邊站壓力日增，以及越南民間社會對外交事務日益暢所欲言。鑒於此，本研究的主要目的，即在探討越南民意在越南官方制定對美、中兩國的政策上是否以及如何產生影響。在深入回答此問題前，本研究先簡述越南民意在越南對外政策制定之角色，並歸納出越南民眾透過制度設計和非制度設計這兩種方式與途徑以表達其對外交政策議題的意見。接著，本研究藉由探討「2019年越中萬安灘對峙事件」、「美國航空母艦2018年和2020年靠港訪問越南」這兩個國土安全議題案例，以及中國「一帶一路」倡議和美國「印太戰略」這兩個區域大國政治議題案例，進而釐清越南官方與民間在這四個案例上對美、中的政策偏好及立場，並以此評估越南民意所透過的兩種制度和非制度設計的方式與途徑對官方外交決策過程所產生的影響。本研究發現，越南民意可以有條件地影響越南官方對美、中兩國的決策過程。進一步言，當越南民眾對某項涉及美、中兩國的議題之關注較大，且越南官方與民間對該等議題的政策偏好與立場出現很大的分歧之時，那麼越南民意較有機會影響官方的政策制定和產出。本研究的發現對於進一步解釋民意與包括越南在內的威權主義國家的外交決策之關係上做出重要的實證和理論貢獻，即倘某項外交事件的議題顯著性高，且能夠引起該國較激烈的國內政治競爭，那麼民意影響官方的外交決策之機會也會有所提升。
The United States (U.S.) and China are both positioned as Vietnam’s critical partners in terms of political, security and economic dimensions. During the last ten years, dealing with the U.S. and China has become a focus of Vietnam’s foreign policy, representing a tough test for Vietnamese leaders. The challenges facing Vietnamese foreign policy makers nowadays include: mounting side-taking pressure resulted from U.S.-China strategic rivalry and Vietnamese public’s growing concerns about foreign affairs. This research is thus designed to investigate whether and how public opinion can affect Vietnam’s foreign policies towards the U.S. and China. This dissertation first briefs on the role of Vietnamese public opinion in the making of Vietnam’s foreign policy, then maps out two dominant channels that the public utilize to express their perspectives on foreign affairs, i.e. institutionally-designed and non-institutionally-designed. Afterwards, this study investigates four specific cases to clarify Vietnamese authorities’ and public’s policy preferences and stances towards the U.S. and China, and evaluates how the public have resorted to the above institutionally-designed and non-institutionally-designed channels to exert influences on the foreign policy making process. The former two cases are related to sovereign security issue, including: Vietnam-China standoff at Vanguard Bank in 2019, and the U.S. aircraft carrier port calls to Vietnam in 2018 and 2020. Meanwhile, the latter two cases deal with regional power politics issue, particularly: China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. This study explores that Vietnamese public opinion can conditionally affect Vietnam’s policy toward the U.S. and China. More specifically, when the public pay greater attention to a particular U.S.-related or China-related issue, plus significant discrepancies in policy preferences and stances are found between Vietnamese authorities and the public, public opinion can have greater chance to influence the authorities’ foreign policy making. The findings of this research make crucial empirical and theoretical contributions to explaining the nexus between public opinion and foreign policy making in authoritarian states. That said, if the issue salience of a particular foreign policy incident is high and can trigger intense domestic political contestation, the chances for public opinion to wield influences over the authorities’ foreign policy making will subsequently increase. |
| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
106260507 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106260507 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [東亞研究所] 學位論文
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| 050701.pdf | | 3975Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 162 | View/Open |
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