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| Title: | 霸權的反避險策略：美中競爭下的美國與新加坡和美國與馬來西亞關係（2009-2017）
The Counter-hedging Strategy of Hegemon: A Study of U.S.-Singapore and U.S.-Malaysia Relations under U.S.-China Rivalry (2009-2017) |
| Authors: | 陳威溢
Chen, Wei-Yi |
| Contributors: | 盧業中
Lu, Yeh-Chung
陳威溢
Chen, Wei-Yi |
| Keywords: | 美中競爭
權力轉移
亞太再平衡
避險
反避險
新加坡
馬來西亞
U.S.-China rivalry
Power transition
Rebalance to Asia
Hedging
Counter-hedging
Singapore
Malaysia |
| Date: | 2022 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-01-05 15:16:58 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 隨著中國的崛起與美國在歐巴馬上任後的推行重返亞洲戰略與亞太再平衡戰略，中小型國家的避險策略在「美中權力競逐」的國際情勢正酣之際成為各家關注焦點。然而，鮮少有研究探討美國或中國等被避險的國家基於其國家利益對避險策略的單一政策乃至整體策略性的回應，即「反避險策略」。故本文意圖從權力轉移理論的角度探討美國在歐巴馬政府時期面對美中競爭的情勢，作為被避險國對新加坡與馬來西亞的反避險策略為何？反避險策略能對美國的亞洲戰略佈局發揮什麼效果？本文並將反避險策略簡單定義為「被避險國基於國家利益的考量，為了降低避險策略的不確定性，對避險國直接訴諸政策影響力的策略」。
本文首先從權力轉移論中的「全球─區域階層關係」推論出美國的亞洲戰略思維包含「區域霸權領導」與「美中權力轉移」兩個關鍵，再從白宮與國防部的官方報告整理出美國的四個國家利益依照重要性排序為秩序、安全、經濟、形象，並被包裹在亞太再平衡戰略的五支柱之中。在第三章及第四章，本文分別整理了新加坡和馬來西亞的避險策略脈絡，並從美國的角度出發分析美國對兩國的反避險策略，發現美國對兩國皆無威逼行為，但皆有程度不一的拉攏和忽略行為。在馬來西亞的案例中，美國甚至出現因為國家利益矛盾而理性選擇忽略的情況。最後，本文發現在權力轉移過程中，美國作為既有霸權的反避險策略能讓避險策略有助於或不損及美國的國家利益，在鞏固美國區域霸權領導的同時，拉高中國完成權力轉移過程的門檻，確保既有霸權相對於修正主義強權的優勢地位。
With the rise of China and the U.S. implementation of the Pivot to Asia and the Rebalance to Asia strategy after Obama took office, the hedging strategy of small and medium-sized countries has become trending in the context of “U.S.-Sino Rivalry”. However, few studies have explored the concept of “Counter-hedging strategy”. From the perspective of power transition theory, this thesis intends to explore the U.S. counter-hedging strategy towards Singapore and Malysia during the Obama administration, and explore the impact it makes on the U.S. Asia strategy.
This thesis first deduces from the “Multiple Hierarchy Model” that the U.S. Asia strategy has two key factors, “Regional hegemonic leadership” and “U.S.-Sino power transition". Next, this thesis sorts out the four national interests of U.S., which are international order, security, prosperity, and values in order of importance, and are practiced within the five pillars of the Rebalance to Asia strategy. In Chapters three and four, this thesis clarifies the context of Singapore and Malaysia’s hedging strategies respectively, and analyzes the U.S. counter-hedging strategy which consists of wooing and ignoring behavior in varying degree. In the case of Malaysia, the U.S. even choose ignoring behavior because of the contradiction among national interests. Finally, this thesis finds that the counter-hedging strategy of a status quo hegemon can make the hedging strategy help or at least not harm the national interests of the U.S in the process of power transition. It ensures regional hegemonic leadership while raising the threshold of China achiving power transition. |
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Hookway, James. “Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad Calls on Prime Minister Najib Razak to Resign,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysias-mahathir-mohamad-calls-on-prime-minister-najib-razak-to-resign-1428153386?mod=Searchresults_pos15&page=1 (April 4, 2015).
Hope, Bradley, and Tom Wright. “U.S. Links Malaysian Prime Minister to Millions Stolen from Development Fund,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-seeks-1-billion-in-asset-seizures-tied-to-malaysian-fund-1mdb-1469019540 (July 21, 2016).
Hope, Bradley, and Tom Wright. “Wsj Investigation: China Offered to Bail out Troubled Malaysian Fund in Return for Deals,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-flexes-its-political-muscle-to-expand-power-overseas-11546890449 (Jan. 7, 2019).
Isaac, Danielle. “Foreign Direct Investments from the U.S. to Singapore Hit over $244b,” Singapore Business Review, https://sbr.com.sg/economy/exclusive/foreign-direct-investments-us-singapore-hit-over-244b (2020).
Larter, David B. “In Challenging China’s Claims in the South China Sea, the U.S. Navy Is Getting More Assertive,” Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/02/05/in-challenging-chinas-claims-in-the-south-china-sea-the-us-navy-is-getting-more-assertive/ (Feb. 25, 2020).
Lee, Hsien Loong. “BBC Hardtalk - Stephen Sackur Interviews Singapore`s PM Lee Hsien Loong,” Singapore Voices, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YN4SuSXqnLA (March 1, 2017).
Lee, Hsien Loong. “Keynote Address of 14th Asia Security Summit the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue,” The International Institute for Strategic Studies, https://www.iiss.org/events/shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2015 (May 29, 2015).
Matthews, Christopher, and Bradley Hope. “Malaysia Leader Najib Razak’s Assets Probed by U.S.,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-leader-najib-razaks-assets-probed-by-us-1442844760?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=11 (Sep. 21, 2015).
Mohamad, Mahathir. “‘I Am Still Here’ Asiaweek`s Complete Interview with Mahathir Mohamad,” Asiaweek, 1997, http://edition.cnn.com/ASIANOW/asiaweek/97/0509/cs3.html (Accessed date: May 14, 2022).
Nelson, Colleen McCain. “Obama Emphasizes Transparency to Malaysia’s Najib,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-emphasizes-transparency-to-malaysias-najib-1448198757?mod=Searchresults_pos19&page=9 (Nov. 22, 2015).
Nelson, Colleen McCain. “Obama Faces a Diplomatic Dilemma on Malaysia Trip,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-faces-a-diplomatic-dilemma-on-malaysia-trip-1447956902?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=2 (Nov. 19, 2015).
Nelson, Colleen McCain. “Obama Says Not Meeting Anwar Ibrahim Is No Snub to Human Rights in Malaysia,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304788404579526722087490210 (April 27, 2014).
Ng, Jason, and James Hookway. “Malaysia’s 1MDB Delays Loan Payment Again,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysias-1mdb-delays-loan-payment-again-1422794361?mod=Searchresults_pos4&page=2 (Feb. 1, 2015).
Ng, Jason. “Malaysia Orders Suspension of Two Publications,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-orders-suspension-of-two-publications-1437733153 (July 24, 2015).
Ng, Jason. “Malaysia’s 1MDB Gets $1 Billion Lifeline,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysias-1mdb-gets-1-billion-lifeline-1432897470?mod=Searchresults_pos12&page=1 (May 29, 2015).
Ng, Jason. “Malaysia’s Najib Razak Fires Deputy Prime Minister in 1MDB Rift,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysias-najib-razak-shakes-up-cabinet-amid-1mdb-investigation-1438065854?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=12 (July 28, 2015).
Ngui, Yantoultra, and P.R. Venkat. “Chinese Railway Builder, Malaysian Tycoon Join in Bid for 1MDB Land,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-railway-builder-malaysian-tycoon-join-in-bid-for-1mdb-land-1449575511?mod=Searchresults_pos14&page=3 (Dec. 8, 2015).
Ngui, Yantoultra, and Tom Wright. “Malaysia Says Saudis Gave Prime Minister Najib Razak a $681 Million ‘Donation’,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysias-attorney-general-najib-razak-received-681-million-personal-donation-from-saudi-royals-1453780909?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=9 (Jan. 26, 2016).
Ngui, Yantoultra. “Malaysian Political Foes Join to Seek Prime Minister Najib’s Ouster,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysian-political-foes-join-to-seek-najibs-ouster-1457095639?mod=Searchresults_pos4&page=8 (March 4, 2016).
Ngui, Yantoultra. “Prime Minister Najib Presents Malaysia’s Largest Budget Ahead of Elections,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/prime-minister-najib-presents-malaysias-largest-budget-ahead-of-elections-1509110839?mod=Searchresults_pos9&page=2 (Oct. 27, 2017).
Rahmat, Ridzwan. “Malaysia Revises Contract for Littoral Mission Ships,” Jane`s defense weekly, https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/malaysia-revises-contract-for-littoral-mission-ships (March 18, 2019).
Revill, John. “Swiss Prosecutors Investigating 1MDB Say Malaysia Funds Were Diverted,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/swiss-attorney-general-expresses-concern-over-halt-of-malaysian-1mdb-probe-1454083061 (Jan. 30, 2016).
Sim, Royston. “Saf Vehicle Seizure: Shipping Firm Apl Had Used Hong Kong as Transit Point without Issues, Says Army Chief,” The Straits Times, https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/saf-vehicle-seizure-shipping-firm-apl-had-used-hong-kong-as-transit-point-without-issues (Nov. 29, 2016).
Wade, Geoff. “The Chinese Navy and the Quest for Access,” The National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-chinese-navy-the-quest-access-14381 (Nov. 18, 2015).
Wright, Tom. “1MDB Defends Price Paid in Genting Deal,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/1mdb-defends-price-paid-in-genting-deal-1435147466?mod=Searchresults_pos3&page=1 (June 24, 2015).
Wright, Tom. “Fund Controversy Threatens Malaysia’s Leader,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/fund-controversy-threatens-malaysias-leader-1434681241 (June 18, 2015).
Wright, Tom. “Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak Faces No-Confidence Motion,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-confidence-motion-filed-against-malaysias-prime-minister-1445515640?mod=Searchresults_pos10&page=10 (Oct. 22, 2015).
Wright, Tom. “Singapore Central Bank Cooperating with Malaysia on Probe Involving Najib Razak,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/singapore-central-bank-cooperating-with-malaysia-on-probe-involving-najib-razak-1436324823?mod=Searchresults_pos4&page=12 (July 7, 2015).
中文資料與文獻
官方文件與資料
「「東協—中國全面經濟合作框架協議服務貿易協定」第1階段服務貿易自由化對我國之衝擊」，中華民國大陸委員會， https://www.mac.gov.tw/News_Content.aspx?n=DED5DAB0D6C7BED6&sms=8E0A247A631E0960&s=91F62BB1A0FCA464 (2007年8月8日)。
「中國－東盟關係（10+1）」，中華人民共和國外交部，https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gjhdqzz_681964/lhg_682518/zghgzz_682522/ (存取日期：2022年5月17日)。
「中國與馬來西亞的關係-中馬《聯合聲明》」，中國人民共和國外交部，https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/ziliao/1179/t5703.htm (1999年5月31日)。
「中華人民共和國和馬來西亞聯合公報」，中華人民共和國外交部，https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/ziliao/1179/t226666.htm (2005年12月15日)。
「中華人民共和國和馬來西亞聯合新聞稿」，中華人民共和國外交部，https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gj_676203/yz_676205/1206_676716/1207_676728/201310/t20131005_9298175.shtml (2013年10月5日)。
「中華人民共和國與東南亞國家聯盟全面經濟合作框架協議」，中華人民共和國外交部，https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/ziliao/1179/t575755.htm (2002年11月4日)。
「東亞峰會: 組織(會議)概況」，中華人民共和國外交部，https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gjhdqzz_681964/dyfheas_682566/jbqk_682568/ (存取日期：2022年5月17日)。
「胡錦濤主席會見新加坡總理李顯龍」，中華人民共和國外交部，https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/pds/ziliao/zt/ywzt/2005year/hjtzt/hjt2004apec/t170958.htm (2004年11月20日)。
「胡錦濤會見馬來西亞總理納吉布」，中華人民共和國外交部， https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gj_676203/yz_676205/1206_676716/xgxw_676722/200911/t20091111_9298028.shtml (2009年11月11日)。
「習近平會見馬來西亞總理納吉布」，中華人民共和國外交部，https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cgsf/chn/zgxw/t1249562.htm (2015年3月27日)。
專書及專書篇章
廖舜右，「現實主義」，收於張亞中、張登及編，國際關係總論，第五版。(新北市：揚智，2019)。
蕭雷(Derek Chollet)著，林添貴(譯)，美國該走的路: 歐巴馬如何抗拒華盛頓的政治惡鬥, 重新定義美國與世界的外交關係，(新北市：八旗文化， 2017)。
期刊論文
左正東、黃瓊萩，「「功能取向』對「關係導向」：比較小布希與歐巴馬政府的馬來西亞政策」，問題與研究，第56卷，第1期 (2017)，頁1-30。
巨克毅，「當前美國的東亞戰略分析」，全球政治評論，第21期 (2008)，頁19-43。
吳崇涵，「中美競逐影響力下的臺灣避險策略」，歐美研究，第 48 卷，第4期 (2018)，頁513-547。
李大中，「美國歐巴馬政府時期的南海政策」，遠景基金會季刊，第18卷，第3期 (2017)，頁41-84。
李瓊莉，「亞太區域經濟構築中的「東協中心性」」，遠景基金會季刊，第16卷，第4期 (2015)，頁71-113。
李瓊莉，「美國重返亞洲對區域主義之意涵」，全球政治評論，第39期 (2012)，頁87-103。
林正義，「中國、東協、美國在南海安全的新角力」，戰略安全研析，第64期 (2010)，頁9-10。
林正義，「歐巴馬政府的南海政策：中國的回應及對台灣的影響」，東吳政治學報，第34卷，第1期 (2016)，頁1-80。
唐欣偉，「美國國關學界對中國之評估：以攻勢現實主義與權力轉移論為例」，政治科學論叢，第58期 (2013)，頁47-70。
唐欣偉，「歐巴馬近期外交政策評析」，全球政治評論，第49期 (2015)，頁7-12。
徐遵慈，「從「重返亞洲」到「印太戰略」－美國對東南亞政策的轉變與最新發展」，經濟前瞻，第178期 (2018)，頁106-111。
張登及，「全球體系、區域次體系與極數國定理：攻勢現實主義的案例檢證」，問題與研究，第58卷，第1期 (2019)，頁1-46。
張登及，「美中臺三角關係發展與臺灣「負責任的避險」策略」，戰略安全研析，第157期 (2019)，頁62-70。
陳鴻瑜，「美國、中國和東協三方在南海之角力戰」，遠景基金會季刊，第12卷，第1期 (2011)，頁43-80。
曾蕙逸，「東南亞區域整合前景：新加坡作為輪值主席期間之反思」，歐亞研究，第7期 (2019)，頁11-18。
黃介正，「歐巴馬亞洲行與美國亞太戰略轉型」，展望與探索，第 7 卷，第12期 (2009)，頁1-4。
廖小娟，「試論中美發動軍事衝突的要件：國家權力差距或不滿意」，政治學報，第62期(2016)，頁1-24。
劉大年，「跨太平洋夥伴協定 (TPP) 對臺灣的啟示」，展望與探索，第10卷，第四期 (2012)，頁 18-23。
盧業中，「美國南海政策之演變」，戰略與評估，第7卷，第2期 (2016)，頁47-63。
智庫與研究機構出版品
孫國祥，「馬來西亞、印尼、汶萊的南海政策作為」，南海地區形勢評估報告， https://nanhai.nju.edu.cn/_upload/article/files/9a/c9/96961e3149059a8231a3be5fd9eb/2e0e029a-56fe-4bc6-a853-85cbcd105714.pdf (2013年12月30日)。
蕭琇安，「美國南海「航行自由」之成效」，財團法人國策研究院文教基金會，http://inpr.org.tw/m/404-1728-1638.php?Lang=zh-tw (2019年12月)。
網路資料及新聞報導
「「和平友誼-2016」中馬聯合軍演落幕」，人民網， http://military.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2016/1126/c1011-28897510.html (2016年11月26日)。
「馬中關丹產業園區總體概況」，中國-馬來西亞欽州產業園區管理委員會，http://zmqzcyyq.gxzf.gov.cn/zmhz/gdygk/t3190648.shtml (2022年3月24日)。
「馬來西亞首相訪華，為撈大合同或避談南海爭議」，端傳媒， https://theinitium.com/article/20161101-dailynews-sino-malaysia/ (2016年11月2日)。
「馬來西亞購買中國軍艦 美國說不擔心」，美國之音，. https://www.voacantonese.com/a/us-china-malaysia-20161101/3574613.html (2016年11月1日)。
「第十一屆中國－東協博覽會、中國－東協商務與投資峰會」，中國網，http://www.china.com.cn/zhibo/2014-09/16/content_33514856.htm (2014年9月16日)。
「新加坡為何對「一帶一路」冷感？因為一旦這條新運河通了，星國末日恐將來臨！」，商業週刊， https://www.businessweekly.com.tw/international/blog/19784 (2017年5月22日)。 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
108253001 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108253001 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202201731 |
| Appears in Collections: | [外交學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
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Description |
Size | Format | |
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| 300101.pdf | | 6221Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 65 | View/Open |
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