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| Title: | 政策不確定性對台灣房市之影響
The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on the Taiwanese Housing Market |
| Authors: | 吳冠臻
Wu, Kuan-Chen |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
吳冠臻
Wu, Kuan-Chen |
| Keywords: | 不確定性指數
Google Trends
政策不確定性
房市政策
房地產市場
Uncertainty Index
Google Trends
Policy Uncertainty
Housing Market Policy
Real Estate Market |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-08-02 13:00:40 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 政策不確定性指的是政府執行政策時衍生出的風險，為影響投資人決策的重大因素之一，過往有文獻建構了經濟政策不確定性指數，並在後續的研究中，以該指數衡量不確定性對資產市場所帶來的影響，而過去的文獻較少著墨於政策不確定性對不動產的影響，因此本研究以台灣房市相關的財政政策、住宅政策以及央行政策為基礎，編製了屬於台灣的不動產政策不確定性指數（REPU指數），並與現有文獻所建構的經濟政策不確定性指數（EPU指數）進行比較，探討兩政策不確定性指數對於房地產市場中房價、議價空間、房屋交易量與流動天數的影響。
經實證研究發現，兩政策不確定性指數與房市變數之間，並不存在結構性改變，因此以線性模型進行後續的分析，結果顯示EPU指數與REPU指數皆對房價具有領先關係，且當EPU指數受到衝擊時，房價也出現明顯下跌情形，而 REPU指數對房價則不存在顯著動態影響；在議價天數方面，EPU指數與REPU指數皆無法有效解釋該房市變數，但當REPU指數發生衝擊時，對於議價空間出現持續性的負面影響；在房屋交易量方面，兩政策不確定性指數對於房屋交易量皆存在領先關係，且當REPU指數發生衝擊時，對房市交易量具有顯著的正向影響；最後，在流動天數的部分，兩政策不確定性指數皆無法有效解釋該房市變數並對其產生動態影響。
Policy uncertainty refers to the risks derived from the implementation of government policies and is one of the major factors that influence investment decisions. Previous studies have constructed indices to measure economic policy uncertainty and examine its impact on asset markets. However, there has been limited research focused on the impact of policy uncertainty on the real estate market. Therefore, this study is based on real estate-related fiscal policies, housing policies, and central bank policies in Taiwan to develop the Real Estate Policy Uncertainty Index (REPU Index). The REPU Index is then compared with the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU Index) constructed in existing literature. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of these two policy uncertainty indices on house prices, bargaining space, trading volume, and days on market in the real estate market.
The results of the study indicate that there are no structural changes between the two policy uncertainty indices and the housing market variables. Consequently, a linear model is used for subsequent analysis. The results show that both the EPU index and the REPU index have a leading relationship with house prices. When the EPU Index experiences shocks, there is a significant decline in house prices. However, the REPU index does not have a significant dynamic impact on house prices. In terms of bargaining space, neither the EPU Index nor the REPU Index effectively explains this variable. However, when the REPU Index experiences shocks, it has a persistent negative impact on bargaining space. Regarding housing transaction volume, both policy uncertainty indices have a leading relationship with housing transaction volume. Additionally, when the REPU index is impacted, it has a significant positive effect on the volume of housing transactions. Finally, in terms of days on market, neither the EPU index nor the REPU index can effectively explain this variable and have a dynamic impact on it. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
110357032 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110357032 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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