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| Title: | 總體審慎政策對台灣房市的影響
The Effect of Macroprudential Policies on Taiwan Housing Market |
| Authors: | 羅元辰
Lo, Yuan-Chen |
| Contributors: | 朱琇妍
Chu, Shiou-Yen
羅元辰
Lo, Yuan-Chen |
| Keywords: | 不動產授信風險權數
資本適足率
總體審慎政策
動態隨機一般均衡模型
Risk-Weight
Capital Adequacy Ratio
Macroprudential Policies
DSGE Model |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-08-02 13:58:48 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 111年2月，金管會提高不動產授信風險權數遏止房價上升。相較於升息與調整貸款成數，風險權數會直接影響到銀行資本適足率的計算，從源頭去管制資金流向，並期望藉此達到穩定房市的目的。
本研究建立一個動態隨機一般均衡模型(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE)，將政府調高不動產授信風險權數、升息與調降貸款成數等調控房市的措施視為外生衝擊，觀察衝擊對台灣房地產市場的影響。本論文研究發現，三項政策都可有效抑制房價，而升息會減少儲蓄者的購屋需求，貸款成數降低會減少借款者的房屋消費量，兩者透過降低購屋能力，影響借貸市場的需求，導致房價下跌。調高風險權數著重在管制銀行的放貸意願，減少借貸市場的資金供給，控制銀行風險，以抑制房價上漲。
在升息、不動產授信風險權數及貸款成數三項總體審慎政策中，三者都能抑制房價並使國內銀行資本適足率上升，從不同角度影響房價和金融體系，調節借貸市場的供需，達到國內房價下跌，銀行資本適足率上升的目的。其中又以影響銀行端的不動產授信風險權數最能抑制房價，民眾在短期內不會受到過多衝擊，對民眾的影響最小，房屋消費量上升，整體產出也增加，因此這項政策最能兼顧民眾感受與降低房價的需求。
In February 2022, The Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan (FSC Taiwan) raised the risk-weighted of real estate loans to moderate housing market. Compared with adjusting the interest rate and loan-to-value ratio (LTV ratio) which affected the demand side, raising the risk-weight would directly influence the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of the bank. Therefore, the government was tackling the problem at the source by controlling the funding to cool off the housing market.
This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and analyzes risk-weighted of mortgage loans shock, interest rate shock and LTV ratio shock to explore the influences of Taiwan housing market. The results indicate that all of three policies can reduce the housing price. In addition, raising the interest rate can decrease the savers’ housing transaction and reducing the LTV ratio can curb borrowers’ housing consumption. Since regulating the interest rate and LTV ratio directly influences the demand of the credit market, the housing price decreases. Enhancing the risk-weight focuses on controlling the supply of credit market to reduce housing price.
All macroprudential policies can suppress housing prices and increase the capital adequacy ratio of domestic banks. They regulate the supply and demand in the credit market, aiming to achieve a decline in domestic housing prices and an increase in the capital adequacy ratio of banks. The impact of the risk-weight on the bank`s side is the most effective in suppressing housing prices. It has minimal impact on the public in the short run, and the increase in housing consumption leads to output growth. Therefore, this policy can best balance the public`s perception and the need to lower housing prices. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
110255018 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255018 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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