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| Title: | Covid-19防疫措施對於觀光類股的影響
The Impact of Covid-19 Preventive Measures on Tourism Industry Stock Prices |
| Authors: | 王愉瑄
Wang, Yu-Xuan |
| Contributors: | 胡偉民
黃柏鈞
Hu, Wei-Min
Huang, Po-Chun
王愉瑄
Wang, Yu-Xuan |
| Keywords: | 新冠疫情
防疫措施
事件研究法
觀光產業
Covid-19
Preventive Measures
Event Study
Tourism Industry |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-09-01 16:08:27 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究探討2021年5月至2022年11月政府為了因應新冠疫情(Covid-19)提升疫情警戒並實施相關防疫措施後，隨著疫苗覆蓋率的提升，防疫措施從嚴格實施至逐步放寬對於觀光產業的影響，並將產業細分為餐飲業、飯店業、休閒娛樂業、旅行社四類，利用事件研究法討論各產業的股價是否有產生異常報酬的現象。
研究結果顯示，全台升為二級警戒對於各產業產生負向異常報酬；放寬部分場域防疫管制措施則對於各產業產生正向異常報酬；分階段逐步開放邊境管制措施由於消息提前洩漏，在事件日前對於餐飲業、飯店業、旅行社已產生正向異常報酬，但對於休閒娛樂業的影響並不顯著；隨著國內疫情趨緩，放寬戴口罩等防疫措施以及取消入境人數上限，對於餐飲業、飯店業、旅行社產生正向異常報酬，但同樣對於休閒娛樂業的影響並不顯著。
除此之外，針對日本開放時程對於旅行社股的影響進行討論，發現具有正面影響，並且又另外應用最小平方法(OLS)線性迴歸模型研究旅行社每月營收與其股價報酬率之關聯，指出股價已經提前反應完畢，二者之間呈現負相關。
This study investigates the period from May 2021 to November 2022, during which the government implemented escalated pandemic alert levels and related preventive measures in response to the Covid-19 outbreak. As vaccination coverage increased, the strict implementation of these measures gradually transitioned to a phased relaxation. This study focuses on the impact of these measures on the tourism industry, specifically in the segments of the restaurant industry, hotel industry, leisure and entertainment industry, and travel agencies. The event study methodology is employed to examine whether abnormal returns occurred in the stock prices of these industries.
The research findings indicate that the escalation to Level 2 alert has a negative abnormal return on these industries. However, the relaxation of specific venue-based preventive measures results in positive abnormal returns on these industries. The phased reopening of border control measures, although accompanied by the pre-event leak of information, leads to positive abnormal returns for the restaurant industry, hotel industry, and travel agencies before the event date. However, its impact on the leisure and entertainment industry is not significant. As the domestic epidemic situation eases, the relaxation of preventive measures such as mask mandates and removal entry restrictions generates positive abnormal returns for the restaurant industry, hotel industry, and travel agencies. However, the impact on the leisure and entertainment industry remains insignificant.
In addition, a discussion is conducted regarding the impact of Japan`s reopening timeline on travel agency stocks, revealing a positive effect. Furthermore, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression model is applied to examine the relationship between monthly revenue and stock price returns for travel agencies. The analysis indicates that stock prices have already preemptively factored in the information, showing a negative correlation between the two. |
| Reference: | 一、中文文獻
1.王馨妮，2022，新型冠狀病毒肺炎對股市報酬率之影響—以觀光產業為例，亞洲大學財務金融學系，碩士論文。
2.沈中華、李建然，2000，事件研究法—財務與會計實證研究必備，華泰文化事業公司。
3.徐偉翔，2022，Covid-19疫情對臺灣觀光類股的影響—以事件研究法分析，國立台中科技大學企管管理系碩士在職專班，碩士論文。
4.蔡柔穎，2022，Covid-19首例確診宣告對台美兩地觀光相關類股的影響，國立高雄大學金融管理學系，碩士論文。
5.吳幸姬、李顯儀，2006，產業月營收變化與股價報酬的關聯性之研究，管理科學研究，3(2)，61-74。
二、英文文獻
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
110255010 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255010 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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