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| Title: | 變額萬能壽險脫退率影響因素之實證研究
On the Factors Affecting the Surrender and Lapse Behavior of Variable Universal Life Insurance Contracts |
| Authors: | 鍾沂臻
Chung, Yi-Chen |
| Contributors: | 蔡政憲
Tsai, Cheng-Hsien
鍾沂臻
Chung, Yi-Chen |
| Keywords: | 變額萬能壽險
解約
失效
脫退
羅吉斯迴歸分析
Variable Universal Life Insurance
Surrender
Lapse
Logistic Regression Models |
| Date: | 2025 |
| Issue Date: | 2025-10-02 11:10:27 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究旨在探討影響變額萬能壽險保單脫退行為之保戶特徵因素，並進一步分析主動性解約（surrender）與被動性失效（lapse）兩類脫退型態之異質性。傳統對脫退行為的研究多將二者合併分析，忽略其背後動機與行為特徵之差異，恐導致風險評估與商品管理策略失真。為彌補此一研究缺口，本文以台灣某中型壽險公司2002年至2018年間所承保之變額萬能壽險契約資料為實證基礎，納入性別、婚姻狀態、投保年齡、職業風險等級與保額等個體層面變數，分別運用二元羅吉斯迴歸與廣義羅吉斯迴歸模型進行實證分析。
研究結果顯示，保戶個體特徵對解約與失效行為之影響方向與顯著性不盡相同。年輕族群、高風險職業、未婚者與婚姻狀態改變者之脫退傾向較高，尤其在投保年齡為15至24歲的年輕保戶其脫退率顯著高於其他年齡層，而65歲以上的保戶脫退率最低。性別部分女性的解約率顯著高於男性，而失效率則反之。保額越高解約率與失效率皆越低。
本研究有助於壽險業者辨識高脫退風險族群，發展針對性之商品設計與留存策略，亦可作為保險監理機關與會計制度制定者理解保戶行為與保單穩定性之重要參考，並對未來進一步納入宏觀經濟變數與保單制度設計因素之多層次研究提供基礎。
This study examines how policyholder characteristics influence policy discontinuation in variable universal life (VUL) insurance and, in particular, the heterogeneity between voluntary surrender and involuntary lapse. Prior research often combines these outcomes, overlooking differences in motivations and behavioral profiles that can distort risk assessment and product management. Using administrative records for VUL contracts underwritten by a mid-sized life insurer in Taiwan from 2002 to 2018, we include individual-level covariates — sex, marital status, issue age, occupational risk level, and policy face amount — and estimate binary logistic regression and generalized logit (multinomial logistic) models to analyze surrender and lapse separately.
Empirical results indicate that the direction and significance of effects differ across discontinuation types. Younger policyholders, those in higher-risk occupations, unmarried individuals, and those experiencing changes in marital status exhibit higher discontinuation propensities. The 15–24 age group shows a significantly higher discontinuation rate than other age cohorts, whereas policyholders aged 65 and above display the lowest rates. By sex, women have significantly higher surrender rates than men, while men exhibit higher lapse rates. Higher policy face amounts are associated with lower probabilities of both surrender and lapse.
These findings help insurers identify high-risk segments and inform targeted product design and retention strategies. They also provide regulators and standard setters with evidence on policyholder behavior and portfolio stability, and they motivate future multi-level research that incorporates macroeconomic factors and policy design features. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
112358012 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0112358012 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
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