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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/18203
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/18203


    Title: A Ratio Method for Old Age Mortality Projection Based on Incomplete Data: The Case in Taiwan
    Other Titles: 臺灣地區高齡人口的死亡率推估:比值法在不完整資料下的應用
    Authors: 余清祥;胡玉蕙;張正鵬
    Yue, Jack C.;Hu, Yu-Whuei;Chang, Cheng-Peng
    Date: 2001-06
    Issue Date: 2008-12-19 14:55:12 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 死亡率的推估在設計老年人的福利政策上扮演一個關鍵性的角色。當各年齡死亡資料完整時,常見的死亡率推估方法大多都預測良好;但若高年齡組的死亡資料不完整時,這些方法的預測能力則不能確定。鑑於相關文獻十分缺乏,我們乃於本文中提出一個「比值推估法」以降低推估的不確定性。此推估法結合迴歸模型和時間序列模型的方法,估計出各高年齡組(通常資料較不充足)死亡率與某一參考年齡組死亡率之間的比值關係;本文也以電腦模擬討論比值法如何減少推估的誤差。另外,我們以台灣1950年到1997年的高齡人口死亡資料為分析對象,將比值法與其他三種最為常用的方法(Lee-Carter, SOA及Pollard)的推估結果比較,發現在絕對和平方誤差為判斷依據時,比值法在預測女性死亡率上均為最好的方法。
    Mortality projection for the elderly plays a critical role in designing welfare policies for them. Most prevailing projection methods perform well when there is sufficient mortality information. However, the projection power of these methods is uncertain when the mortality profile is incomplete. In this paper, we propose a ratio method, which includes techniques used in regression and time series analyses that utilize the relationship between the old-age group and their younger counterpart to compensate for the lack of mortality information on the former. A simulation demonstrates how this method reduces projection errors. In addition, we compare this new method to three prevailing projection methods (Lee-Cater, SOA, and Pollard). Based on the mortality data on the elderly in Taiwan between 1950 and 1997 and using the data between 1950 and 1992 as pilot data and that between 1993 and 1997 as test data, we evaluate the prediction power of these methods and find that the ratio method is the best for predicting female mortality rates in terms of the absolute and squared errors.
    Relation: 人口學刊, 22, 1-18
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[統計學系] 期刊論文

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