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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/20054

    Title: 日本眾議院1993及1996年選舉--自民黨之選票流動分析
    Other Titles: The Flow of the Vote in Japan between 1993 and 1996 House Elections
    Authors: 黃紀;王鼎銘;郭銘峰
    Huang, Chi;Wang, Ding-Ming;Kuo, Ming-Feng
    Keywords: electoral stability and change;flow of the vote;electoral system;the Liberal Democratic Party LDP;panel data;fixed effects logit;random effects probit
    Date: 2005-12
    Issue Date: 2008-12-30 13:55:55 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 民主國家的選舉,選民投票抉擇的「常」與「變」,是攸關各政黨勢力起伏與政黨體系演變的關鍵要素。本文根據日本選舉研究(JES)在1993至1996年所蒐集的定群追蹤資料,分析日本「五五體制」後自民黨面臨多黨競爭下,選民投票穩定與變遷的情形以及其背後的影響因素。研究結果發現,在1993年7月眾院選舉中將票投自民黨的選民當中,約有七成七在1996年10月的眾院選舉時仍穩定地將選票投給了該黨的區域候選人,故儘管自民黨在1996年選舉中有兩成三的選票流失率,但流入率則接近三成五,這對自民黨1996年選後能主導執政,可說助益匪淺。
    Electoral stability and change in a modern democracy causes not only the waxing and waning of a particular political party's strength but also the potential realignment of the entire party system. This study, based on the panel data of the Japanese Election Study (JES), analyzes the flow of the vote for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) between 1993 and 1996, when the challenges of multi-party competitions occurred for the first time in Japan since 1955. An exploratory analysis reveals that, of the voters for the LDP in 1993 House election, approximately 77% of them remained loyal to the LDP in 1996, Despite the 23% outflow of votes, the LDP in 1996 attracted 35% vote inflow from non-LDP voters in 1993. It was the combination of a relatively high degree of party loyalty and the higher inflow rate that allowed the LDP to lead the coalition government in 1996.
    More elaborate panel data analyses of fixed effects logit and random effects probit confirm that, of those factors affecting electoral change in Japan between the 40(superscript th) and 41(superscript st) House Elections, voters' party identification undoubtedly played a crucial role. In other words, despite the fact that the LDP lost its one-party dominance in the early 1990s, a substantial proportion of its supporters remained loyal. Besides, those who lived in rural areas and older citizens were more likely to vote for the LDP, a pattern consistent with earlier findings in the literature of Japanese voting behavior. After taking into account all these variables, however, we still find that voters were more likely to vote for LDP candidates than for other parties in 1996. This seems to indicate that the electoral system reform in 1994, which replaced the single nontransferable vote (SNTV) system with a mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) system, favored the LDP in 1996.
    Relation: 人文及社會科學集刊, 17(4), 853-83
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[政治學系] 期刊論文

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