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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/24763

    Title: 2004年總統選舉中的候選人因素
    Authors: 鄭夙芬;陳陸輝;劉嘉薇
    Cheng, Su-feng;Chen, Lu-Huei;Liu, Jia-Wei
    Keywords: 候選人評價;展望性投票;情感溫度計;投票行為;candidate evaluation;prospective voting;feeling thermometer;voting
    Date: 2005-06
    Issue Date: 2009-01-13 17:12:43 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 在選舉研究中,候選人因素的研究直到1970年代之後,才逐漸得到重視,不過許多實證研究都發現,候選人因素在選舉中扮演重要的角色。本研究使用2004年TEDS總統選舉的資料,檢證候選人因素所扮演的角色,結果發現:候選人人格特質、能力、選民的展望性投票、情感溫度計等因素,是解釋選民投票行為的重要因素。另外,就尋找投票行為重要解釋變數以及理論儉約而言,本研究也發現:利用將近二十題測量的候選人能力因素,對於選民投票行為雖然有不錯的解釋力,但僅用兩題問題之候選人情感溫度計,解釋效果也相當突出,是研究者可以考慮的選擇。
    Studies of electoral politics did not pay attention to the role of candidates until late 1970s. Since then, how ever many empirical studies support that candidates play important role on affecting people's vote choice. This study employs data from the 2004 Taiwan Election and Democratization Study, we demonstrate that candidates' factors, such as personal characters, competence, and prospective evaluation play important role on citizens' vote choices. In the other hand, for employing more parsimonious model to predict voters' choices, we find if one wants to employ only evaluation of candidates to make forecasting of presidential elections, 20 items to measure candidates' competence is a good alternative. However, feeling thermometer, along with demographic backgrounds, party identification, preference on independence versus unification with China, and Taiwanese identity, make relative better prediction on the 2004 presidential elections.
    Relation: 臺灣民主季刊, 2(2), 31-70
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[選舉研究中心] 期刊論文

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