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| Title: | 國際準備需求：亞洲國家的實證
The demand for international reserves：Evidence from Asian countries |
| Authors: | 黃馨慧
Huang,Xin Hui |
| Contributors: | 郭炳伸
Kuo,Bing Shen
黃馨慧
Huang,Xin Hui |
| Keywords: | 誤差修正模型
共整合分析
外匯存底需求
貨幣成長率
error correction model
cointegration test
international reserves
unit root tests |
| Date: | 2007 |
| Issue Date: | 2009-09-11 17:08:26 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文的主要目的在於探討亞洲國家央行外匯存底的需求，研究的國家包括韓國、大陸、印度、新加坡、台灣與日本。透過使用1987年Engle-Granger的共整合分析法，我們發現這六國的外匯存底需求與其解釋變數具有共整合的現象。共整合現象的存在反映了這些國家的外匯存底需求存在長期的均衡關係。此外，為了進一步了解短期經濟的干擾如何影響外匯存底的需求，本文採用誤差修正模型做為分析工具，與過去文獻不同的是，本文的實證結果顯示本文所研究的六個國家之外匯存底顯著的受到貨幣成長率的影響，依據誤差修正模型的調整項亦可發現當外匯存底需求偏離長期均衡值時，此六國的調整速度相當慢，絕對值都在0.5以下，由於當一個經濟體系允許以緩慢的修正速度調整至長期均衡，必須擁有大量的外匯存底，由於本文所挑選的國家為全球著名的外匯存底持有國，其央行皆持有巨額的外匯存底，故本文的實證結果與理論假設一致。
The primary purpose of this paper is to explore the demand characteristics for international reserves in some Asian countries including Korea, China, India, Singapore, Taiwan, and Japan. After applying the cointegration test of Engle-Granger (1987), we discover that the non-stationary macro time series of the group of the countries under study are cointegrated. Hence, international reserves in these Asian countries have displayed a long-run relationship with some determinants for the past several decades. Besides, we adopt an error correcting mechanism specification to investigate the short-run dynamic process of reserve holdings. Based on the error correction model (ECM), the rate of monetary growth is found to have a significant effect on reserve holdings in all of the six countries. In the end, the properties of the error correction terms among these countries are examined. We find that the absolute value of the error correction term is less than 0.5 in these economies. It implies that all of these six countries have very low adjustment speed of the demand for reserves. Owing to the huge stock of reserve holdings in this area, the results appear to be sensible. |
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Kelly, M. G. (1970). “The demand for international reserves.” American Econornic Review 59, 659-667. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營與貿易研究所
95351028
96 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095351028 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文
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