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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/30881
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30881


    Title: 利用馬可夫鏈模式探討人壽保險市場占有率移轉之分析
    Authors: 黃虹玲
    Contributors: 鄧家駒
    鄭宇庭



    黃虹玲
    Keywords: 人壽保險
    馬可夫轉移矩陣
    Date: 2003
    Issue Date: 2009-09-14
    Abstract: 本論文以台灣地區人壽保險公司為對象,取得資本額前三大保險公司九十年九十一年共兩年各季人壽保險的市場占有率,期以電腦回圈模擬方式找出一穩定之馬可夫轉移矩陣,藉以瞭解各公司的客戶忠誠度與流失移轉情形。再以九十二年第一季之新的保險資料,驗證尋找到的馬可夫移轉矩陣之準確情形。本論文之研究結果可提供國內各人壽公司擬定穩定其舊客戶群及開發新客源等政策之參
    The purpose of this study is to understand customers’ loyalties and reasons behind for their defection through the manifestation of Markov transition matrix in the insurance industry in Taiwan.
    Through computer simulation, this study analyzes the quarterly market share information of 2001 and 2002 of the top 3 life insurance companies in terms of the size of the investment capital. In addition, in order to verify for the accuracy and the accountability of the transition matrix, the data of the first quarter of 2003 were applied to the matrix. The result of this study could to used as an overall insight for implementing corporate strategies in retaining the existing customers as well as expanding customers base of insurance companies in Taiwan.

    Key word:life insurance、Markov transition matrix
    Reference: □ Duffy, S. W., Chen, H. H., Tabar, L. and Day, N. E.(1995), "Estimation of Mean Sojourn Time in Breast Cancer Screening Using A Markov Chain Model of Both Entry to and Exit from The Preclinical Detectable Phase," Statistics in Med, Vol.14, pp.1531-1543.
    □ Feller, W.(1968), An introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. I(3rd), New York: John Wiley.
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    □ Smith, W. R.(1956), "Product Differentiation and Market Segmentation as Alternative Marketing Strategies," The Journal of Marketing, Vol.21, pp. 3-8.
    □ Zipkin, P.(1993), "Mortgages and Markov Chain: A Simplified Valuation Model," Management Science, Vol.39, No.6, pp.683-691.
    □ 中華民國人壽保險商業同業公會編印,人壽保險業務統計年報,2002。
    □ 江長慈,台灣地區行動電話行銷策略之研究,私立銘傳大學管理科學研究所碩士論文,2001。
    □ 李永全,台灣壽險業產業結構反獲利能力與管理績效關係之研究,中山大學財務管理研究所博士論文,2000。
    □ 周子文、謝志雄編著,近代商用數學,台北市,1997。
    □ 張文武,保險業效率、承保週期及損失率之實證研究,中央大學財務管理研究所碩士論文,1999。
    □ 陳雲中,人壽保險的理論與實務,台北三民書局股份有限公司,1983。
    □ 黃文璋,隨機過程,華泰書局,台北,1995。
    □ 楊達鑫,兩個等級產品在相依製程下的管制,政治大學統計研究所碩士論文,1998。
    □ 鄭宇庭,鄭天澤,鄧家駒, "二○○一年年度客戶滿意度調查報告", 安泰人壽委託專題研究計畫,2002。
    □ 鄧家駒,風險管理,華泰文化事業公司,2002。
    □ 謝盈弘,馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法在外匯選擇權定價的應用,政治大學統計研究所碩士論文,2001。
    □ 藍靜美,馬可夫鏈模型在終身健康保險費率釐定之應用,政治大學風險管理與保險學研究所碩士論文,2001。
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計研究所
    90354022
    92
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090354022
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[統計學系] 學位論文

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