English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 91280/121421 (75%)
Visitors : 25393034      Online Users : 130
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33739


    Title: The Granger Causality between Economic Growth and Income Inequality in Post-Reform China
    改革後中國之所得不均等與經濟成長之間的Granger因果關係
    Authors: 蔣村逢
    Chiang, Tsun-Feng
    Contributors: 黃智聰
    Huang, Jr-Tsung
    蔣村逢
    Chiang, Tsun-Feng
    Keywords: Granger因果檢定
    不平等
    中國
    向量自迴歸
    China
    Granger-Causality
    inequality
    VAR
    Date: 2003
    Issue Date: 2009-09-17 18:01:11 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 自從中國實施經濟改革之後,其經濟快速成長。從1978到2002年之間,中國的年平均成長率為8.07﹪。但同時期,中國的不平等卻顯示不同的變動趨勢。在1980年代,經濟改革似乎同時促進經濟成長與不平等程度的下降。然而1990年代之後,不平等卻呈現向上爬升的趨勢。本論文的研究目的,即是探討改革後,中國經濟成長與不平等間的因果關係。
    根據之前的文獻,經濟成長和不平等之間可能相互影響,但影響方向卻不確定。本論文研究方法採用Granger因果檢定,估計成長與分配的因果關係以及影響方向。本研究採用Toda and Yamamoto (1995)所提出的向量自迴歸程序,對Granger因果模型進行卡方檢定的統計推論。Toda和Yamamoto證明,研究者能夠估計一個k+dmax階的向量自迴歸模型,其中dmax是時間數列變數最大整合階數,k為落差期數。然而,進行統計推論時,研究者只需利用卡方統計量檢驗前k階的迴歸係數是否顯著,而不需檢驗最後的dmax階迴歸係數。利用此研究方法,本論文發現以下結果:一、經濟成長會正面且顯著地影響不平等;二、不平等不會影響到經濟成長;三、實證結果是穩健的,其不因使用不同的所得不平等指數或落差期數而有所變化。
    會產生第一種結果的主要原因,在於中央政府傾斜政策的實施。與先前文獻完全集中研究自由經濟或計畫經濟不同,中國經濟正處於轉型過程,可能是本研究不能發現所得不均等對經濟成長的主要因素。

    本研究的政策意涵為,由於經濟持續增長,使得不均等的情況更加惡化。因此,中央政府應該取消向東部沿海傾斜的政策,並且增加對中西部地區進行投資的意願。但是,將資源投入在中西部,使得到的收益遠遠小於投入在東部者。因此為了促進持續經濟成長,不建議採取某些能迅速降低不平等的政策,例如財政移轉。
    Ever since economic reform has been carried out in China, its economic growth rate has been remarkable. Its annual growth rate of per capita GDP was about 8.07% for the period 1978-2002, but its income inequality level presented a different moving trend during this time. In the 1980s, it seemed that economic reform decreased this inequality successfully, but the situation of income distribution started to deteriorate beginning in 1990. The purpose of this study is to research if the relationship between economic growth and inequality exists in post-reform China.
    According to previous literature, economic growth and inequality can influence each other, but their influential directions are uncertain. This study adopts the Granger-causality test as a methodology to estimate their relationship and influential directions. This study tests Granger-Causality with the chi-square statistic, which was proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). They wrote that researchers could estimate a (k+dmax)th-order VAR where dmax is the maximal order of integration. Only the first k coefficients have to be jointly tested with the chi-square statistic, and the last dmax coefficients are ignored. This study finds the following results: (i) growth positively influences inequality; (ii) inequality does not influence growth; and (iii) the results are sturdy no matter what inequality index or what lag lengths are used in the empirical test.

    The result (i) can be attributed to the biased central government policy. Differencing from previous studies, which focused on democratic or undemocratic economies, this study researches a transitional economy. It could be the reason why this study finds no evidence of the effect of inequality on growth.
    The policy implications of this study are that China’s government has to give up biased policies and increase the incentives of investing in inland regions. Besides, in order to promote sustainable economic growth, some policies like fiscal transfers, which can reduce inequality quickly, are not recommended.
    Reference: Ahluwalia, M. (1976), “Inequality, Poverty and Development.” Journal of Development Economics, 3, 307-342.
    Alesina, A. and R. Perotti (1994), “The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature.” World Bank Economic Review, 8(3), 351-371.
    Alesina, A. and R. Perotti (1996), “Income Distribution, Political Instability, and Investment.” European Economic Review, 40(6), 1203-1228.
    Barro, R. (1999), “Inequality, Growth, and Investment.” NBER Working Paper, No.7038.
    Broadman, Harry G. and Xiaolun Sun (1997), “The Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment in China.” World Economy, 20(3), 339-361.
    Cai, Fang, Dewen Wang and Yang Du (2002), “Regional Disparity and Economic Growth in China: The Impact of Labor Market Distributions.” China Economic Review, 13, 197-212.
    Chang, Gene H. (2002), “The Cause and Cure of China’s Widening Income Disparity.” China Economic Review, 13, 335-340.
    Chen, J. and B. Fleisher (1996), “Regional Income Inequality and Economic Growth in China.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 22, 141-164.
    Clarke, G. (1995), “More Evidence on Income Distribution and Growth.” Journal of Development Economics, 47(2), 403-427.
    Deininger, Klaus and Lyn Squire (1998), “New Ways of Looking at Old Issues: Inequality and Growth.” Journal of Development Economics, 57, 259-287.
    Dickey, David and Wayne Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-31.
    Dickey, David and Wayne Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
    Enders, Walter (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, 2nd Edition, Massachusetts: John Wiley & Sons.
    Forbes, K. (2000), “A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth.” American Economic Review, 90(4), 869-887.
    Friedman, Benjamin and Kenneth Kuttner (1992), “Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates.” American Economic Review, 82, 472-492.
    Galor, O. and J. Zeira (1993), “Income Distribution and Macroeconomics.” Review of Economic Studies, 60(1), 35-52.
    Granger, Clive (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods.” Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
    Gujarati, D. (1995), Basic Econometrics, 3rd Edition, New York: McGraw-Hill.
    Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten, Daniel Kirchert and Jiancheng Pan (2002), “Disparities in Chinese Economic Development: Approaches on Different Levels of Aggregation.” Economic Systems, 26, 31-54.
    Huang, J-T, A-P Kao and C-C Kuo (2003), “The Inequality of Regional Economic Development in China between 1991 and 2001.” Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 1(3), 273-285.
    Huang, J-T and A-P Kao (2003), “Labor Force Participation and Juvenile Delinquency in Taiwan-A Time Series Analysis,” WEA International's Pacific Rim Conference, the Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, January 9-12, 2003.
    Janvry, A. and E. Sadoulet (2000), “Growth, Poverty, and Inequality in Latin America: A Causal Analysis, 1970-94.” Review of Income and Wealth, 46(3), 267-287.
    Johansen, Soren (1988), “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254.
    Johansen, Soren and Katerina Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-209.
    Jones, Derek C., Cheng Li and Ann L. Owen (2003), “Growth and Regional Inequality in China during the Reform Era.” China Economic Review, 14, 186-200.
    Kakwani, N. and H. Son (2002), “Pro-Poor Growth and Poverty Reduction: The Asian Experience.” Background Paper in the State of Progress towards the Achievements of the Millennium Development Goals in Asia and the Pacific Region, Bangkok: The Poverty Center, Office of the Executive Secretary, ESCAP.
    Kaldor, N. (1956), “Alternative Theories of Distribution.” Review of Economic Studies, 23(1), 83-100.
    Kanbur, R. and X. Zhang (1999), “Which Regional Inequality? The Evolution of Rural-Urban and Inland-Coastal Inequality in China from 1983 to 1995.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 27, 686-701.
    Keidel, Albert (2001), “China’s GDP Expenditure Accounts.” China Economic Review, 12, 355-367.
    Krongkaew, Medhi and Nanak Kakwani (2003), “The Growth –Equity Trade-off in Modern Economic Development: The Case of Thailand.” Journal of Asian Economics, 14, 735-757.
    Kuznets, S. (1955), “Economic Growth and Income Inequality.” American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28.
    Lee, J. (2000), “Changes in the Source of China’s Regional Inequality.” China Economic Review, 11, 232-245.
    Lewis, W. (1954), “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor.” Manchester School of Economic and Society Studies, 22, 139-191.
    Li, Hongyi and Heng-Fu Zou (1998), “Income Inequality is not Harmful for Growth: Theory and Evidence.” Review of Development Economics, 2(3), 318-334.
    Li, S. (1997), “The Search for Determinants of Catching Up: Theory, the East Asian Experience and the Chinese Case.” China Economic Review, 8(2), 137-155.
    Lundberg, Mattias and Lyn Squire (2003), “The Simultaneous Evolution of Growth and Inequality.” Economic Journal, 113, 326-344.
    Maddison, Angus (1998), Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, Paris: OECD.
    Mookherjee, D. and A. Shorrocks (1982), “A Decomposition Analysis of the Trend in UK Income Inequality.” Economic Journal, 92, 886-902.
    Mosconi, R. and C. Giannini (1992), “No-Causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation, Estimation and Testing.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 399-417.
    Papanek, G. and O. Kyn (1986), “The Effect on Income Distribution of Development, the Growth Rate and Economic Strategy.” Journal of Development Economics, 23, 55-65.
    Persson, T. and G. Tabellini (1994), “Is Inequality Harmful for Growth?” American Economic Review, 84(3), 600-621.
    Pindyck, R. and D. Rubinfeld (1991), Econometric Models and Econometric Forecasts, New York: McGraw-Hill.
    Psacharopoulos, George, Samuel Morley, Ariel Fiszbein, Haeduck Lee and William C. Wood (1995), “Poverty and Income Inequality in Latin America during the 1980s.” Reviews of Income and Wealth, 41(3), 245-264.
    Raiser, M. (1997), “Subsidizing Inequality: Economic Reforms, Fiscal Transfers and Convergence across Chinese Provinces.” Working Paper in European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
    Rambaldi, A. and H. Doran (1996), “Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated System Made Easy.” Working Paper in Econometrics and Applied Statistics, Department of Econometrics, University of New England.
    Ravallion, Martin (1998), “Does Aggregation Hide the Harmful Effects of Inequality on Growth?” Economics Letters, 61, 73-77.
    Ravallion, Martin and Shaohua Chen (1997), “What can New Survey Data Tell Us about Recent Changing in Distribution and Poverty?” World Bank Economic Review, 11(2), 357-82.
    Ravallion, Martin and Shaohua Chen (1999), “When Economic Reform is Faster than Statistical Reform: Measuring and Explaining Income Inequality in Rural China.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(1), 33-56.
    Rawski, Thomas G. (2001), “What is Happening to China’s Statistics?” China Economic Review, 12(4), 347-354.
    Scully, G. (2002), “Economic Freedom, Government Policy and the Trade-off between Equity and Economic Growth.” Public Choice, 113, 77-96.
    Shan, Jordan and Fiona Sun (1998a), “Domestic Saving and Foreign Investment in Australia: A Granger Causality Test.” International Economic Journal, 12(4), 79-87.
    Shan, Jordan and Fiona Sun (1998b), “On the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis for the Little Dragons: An Empirical Reinvestigation.” Atlantic Economic Journal, 26(4), 353-71.
    Shan, Jordan and Ken Wilson (2001), “Causality between Trade and Tourism: Empirical Evidence from China.” Applied Economics Letters, 8(4), 279-83.
    Shorrocks, A. (1980), “The Class of Additively Decomposable Inequality Measures.” Econometrica, 48(3), 613-626.
    State Statistical Bureau (Various Year), China Statistical Yearbook, Beijing: Chinese Statistical Press.
    State Statistical Bureau (1998), Comprehensive Statistical Data and materials on 50 Years of New China, Beijing: Chinese Statistical Press.
    State Statistical Bureau (Various Year), Hainan Statistical Yearbook, Beijing: Chinese Statistical Press.
    State Statistical Bureau (Various Year), Tibet Statistical Yearbook, Beijing: Chinese Statistical Press.
    Stock, James and Mark Watson (1988), “Testing for Common Trends.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, 1097-1107.
    Toda, H. and P. Phillips (1993), “Vector Autoregressions and Causality.” Econometrica, 61(6), 1367-1393.
    Toda, H. and T. Yamamoto (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integreated Processes.” Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
    Tsui, K-Y (1991), “China’s Regional Inequality, 1952-1985.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 15, 1-12.
    Tsui, K-Y (1996), “Economic Reform and Interprovincial Inequalities in China.” Journal of Development Economics, 50, 353-368.
    Venieris, Y. and D. Gupta (1986), “Income Distribution and Sociopolitical Instability as Determinants of Savings: A Cross-Sectional Model.” Journal of Political Economy, 94(4), 873-883.
    Wang, Shaoguang and Angang Hu (1999), The Political Economy of Uneven Development: The Case of China, New York: M. E. Sharpe.
    Wang, Xiaolu and Lian Meng (2001), “A reevaluation of China’s Economic Growth.” China Economic Review, 12, 338-346.
    Xu, Z. (1996), “On the Causality between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation.” Review of International Economics, 4, 172-184.
    Yang, Dennis Tao (1998), “Urban-Biased Policies and Rising Income Inequality in China.” American Economic Review, 89(2), 306-310.
    Zhang, Jie and Gustav Kristensen (2001), “The Paradox of Unequal Regional Investment and Equal Regional Economic Growth in China.” Annals of Regional Science, 35, 637-653.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    東亞研究所
    91260004
    92
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091260004
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[東亞研究所 ] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    26000401.pdf15KbAdobe PDF1605View/Open
    26000402.pdf19KbAdobe PDF48019View/Open
    26000403.pdf19KbAdobe PDF1508View/Open
    26000404.pdf80KbAdobe PDF1793View/Open
    26000405.pdf21KbAdobe PDF1494View/Open
    26000406.pdf40KbAdobe PDF2345View/Open
    26000407.pdf49KbAdobe PDF6112View/Open
    26000408.pdf74KbAdobe PDF2257View/Open
    26000409.pdf172KbAdobe PDF17955View/Open
    26000410.pdf44KbAdobe PDF2139View/Open
    26000411.pdf30KbAdobe PDF1647View/Open
    26000412.pdf22KbAdobe PDF1392View/Open
    26000413.pdf31KbAdobe PDF2175View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback