English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 92684/123024 (75%)
Visitors : 26945392      Online Users : 363
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/35135


    Title: 企業實質價值之研究--模糊實質選擇權模型
    The Research on Real Value of Enterprises --The Fuzzy Real Option Model
    Authors: 錢家驊
    Chien,Chia Hwa
    Contributors: 胡聯國
    錢家驊
    Chien,Chia Hwa
    Keywords: 實質選擇權
    模糊理論
    模糊實質選擇權
    參數估計
    太陽能
    real option
    fuzzy
    fuzzy real option
    parameter estimation
    solar power
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 14:14:46 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究以Schwartz與Moon(2000)提出的實質選擇權模型為基礎,再引入模糊理論,建立模糊實質選擇權模型。太陽能產業的益通為樣本公司,進行參數估計,並使用蒙地卡羅模擬,估計益通的合理價值。經過敏感度分析更進一步瞭解,影響公司價值最重要的因子為期初收入成長率與成本。
    將本模型應用到其他電子產業,發現公司的股價常有遭到市場高估或低估,而偏離真實價值的情形發生。因此本研究建立一套投資策略,並參考模型估計的合理價格為投資的依據,希望能夠賺取價差。策略模擬的結果,獲利能力明顯優於長期持有的方式,也證明了本模型的實用性。
    In this study, we use the real option model from Schwartz and Moon (2000) as the basis, and then combine it with fuzzy theory to create Fuzzy Real Option Model. This study takes one company in solar power industry - E-TON as the sample company to conduct the parameter estimation. We also adopt the Monte Carlo Simulation method to assess the reasonable value of E-TON. After the sensitivity analysis, the results show that initial rate of growth in revenues and cost are the most important factors which influenced on the value of a company.
    Furthermore, we apply this model to other companies in electronics industry and discover that the stock prices are often overvalued or undervalued by the market. Therefore, we develop a set of investment strategies for people who want to make profits from the difference of prices. The result of strategic simulation shows that profit is apparently better than the way of buying and holding, and it proves the practicability of this model as well.
    Reference: 中文文獻:
    1.林家帆(2001),「以實質選擇權法評估高科技產業股價」,國立政治大學金融研究所碩士論文。
    2.吳貴淳(2006),「太陽能電池的材料回收處理與再利用研究」,國立交通大學精密與自動化工程學程碩士論文。
    3.吳聲庭(2006),「研發人員職能之研究-以國內太陽能光電産業為例」,中華大學經營管理研究所碩士論文。
    4.益通光能有限股份公司民國九十五年公開說明書。
    5.益通光能有限股份公司民國九十六年公開說明書。
    6.黃玉枝(2002),「以實質選擇權觀點進行公司評價」,國立東華大學國際經濟研究所財務經濟組碩士論文。
    7.黃繼賢(2003),「實質選擇權在投資計畫評估之應用:統寶光電投資方案」,國立成功大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
    8.陳為謙(2006),「管理彈性之價值—應用模糊實質選擇權於投資專案評價」,國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系碩士學位論文。
    英文文獻:
    1.Carlsson, C. and Fuller, R.(2000), “On Fuzzy Real Option Valuation.” Turku Centre for Computer Science, Technical Report: TUCS-TR-367.
    2.Carlsson, C. and Fuller, R.(2000),“Real option evaluation in fuzzy environment.” Proceedings of the International Symposium of Hungarian Researchers on Computational Intelligence, p.69-77.
    3.Dixit A. and R.S. Pindyck(1995), “The Options Approach to Capital Investment.” Harvard Business Review, vol.73:p105-115.
    4.Eduardo S. Schwartz and Mark Moon(2000), “Rational Pricing of Interest Companies.” Financial Analysts Journal, vol.56: p.62-75.
    5.Eduardo S. Schwartz and Mark Moon(2001), “Rational Pricing of Interest Companies Revisited.” The Financial Review, vol.36: p.7-26.
    6.F. Black and M. Scholes(1973), “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities.” Journal of Political Economics, vol.81 p.637-659.
    7.John C. Hull(2002), Options,Futures,and Other Derivatives/5e.
    8.Keith J. Leslie, Max P. Michaels(1997), “The Real Power of Real Options.” The McKinsey Quarterly, No. 3.
    9.Myers S.C.(1977), “Determinants of Corporate Borrowing.” Journal of Financial Economics, vol.5:p147-175.
    10.Robert L. McDonald(2006), “The Role of Real Options in Capital Budgeting: Theory and Practice.” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, vol.18:p27-40.
    11.Trigeorgis L. and S.P. Mason(1987), “Valuing Managerial Flexibility.” Midland Corporate Finance Journal 5, no.1:p14-21
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易研究所
    95351034
    96
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095351034
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    103401.pdf49KbAdobe PDF746View/Open
    103402.pdf72KbAdobe PDF727View/Open
    103403.pdf63KbAdobe PDF719View/Open
    103404.pdf81KbAdobe PDF696View/Open
    103405.pdf101KbAdobe PDF904View/Open
    103406.pdf119KbAdobe PDF1319View/Open
    103407.pdf121KbAdobe PDF1173View/Open
    103408.pdf105KbAdobe PDF964View/Open
    103409.pdf102KbAdobe PDF1420View/Open
    103410.pdf109KbAdobe PDF1116View/Open
    103411.pdf113KbAdobe PDF871View/Open
    103412.pdf125KbAdobe PDF833View/Open
    103413.pdf82KbAdobe PDF866View/Open
    103414.pdf95KbAdobe PDF700View/Open
    103415.pdf65KbAdobe PDF1016View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback