| Abstract: | 抵押貸款提前償還對金融業及不動產抵押債權證券的投資者是一種風險，會使得金融業資金流量及利息收益不確定。而提前償還率的估計，與不動產抵押債權證券的訂價息息相關。因此，抵押貸款提前償還的研究結果對於金融業資產負債管理及未來不動產抵押債權證券化的實施有很大的幫助。而鑑於國內關於「抵押貸款提前償還」的研究仍然很少，故撰寫本文探討引起抵押貸款提前償還的各種不同原因，希望研究結果能提供金融業授信及未來不動產抵押債權證券化實施的參考。
本研究利用某人壽公司個人住宅抵押貸款資料，分為個人條件、貸款本身契約條件與地區經濟等三大構面來討論。使用的計量方法為LOGIT模型，模型中的解釋變數共有員工、首次購屋、性別、年齡、婚姻、所得、掛名、攤還期限、契約利率、固定利率、貸款金額、貸款成數、付款所得比、屋齡、所在地等15項，實證結果具統計顯著性的有員工、性別、契約利率、貸款金額、所在地等5項。結果發現，年輕未婚都會女性比較傾向小額房貸的提前償還，顯示現代女性的理財觀念有長足的進步。
Mortgage prepayment is a kind of risk to financial institutes and those who invest in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). To financial institutes, mortgage prepayment will make cash flow and interest revenue uncertain. To investors, the estimate of prepayment rate is relative to the pricing of mortgage-backed securities and therefore, the return. In brief, the research of mortgage prepayment will be helpful to the asset/liability management in financial institutes and the execution of MBS. There are rare researches on such topic in Taiwan, hence we write this paper to explore various reasons, which induce mortgage prepayment.
The paper use the data provided by some life insurance company, and analyzed the empirical results by the LOGIT model. We discuss the topic in three portions: personal conditions, mortgage contractual conditions, and regional economy. The variables in the model include staff, first-purchase, sex, age, married status, income, name provider, loan period, contract rate, FRM, loan amount, loan-to-value, payment to-income, housing age, and location. The result shows that young unmarried metropolitan women incline small-loan-amount mortgage prepayment. |
