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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36867


    Title: 訊息不對稱、信用擴張與次貸危機之研究
    The Research of Asymmetric Information, Credit Expansion and Subprime Mortgage Crisis
    Authors: 蔣怡菁
    Chiang,Yi,Ching
    Contributors: 胡聯國
    Hu, Len Kuo
    蔣怡菁
    Chiang,Yi,Ching
    Keywords: 次級房貸
    抵押型REITs
    權益型REITs
    訊息不對稱
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 19:59:11 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 美國次級房貸市場快速信用擴張,解釋了何以美國次級房貸市場違約率快速上升、房價的泡沫化。而販賣次級房貸相關商品的金融界機構及所產生的道德危機,就是造成此次次級房貸危機的犯罪者。本研究主要目的之ㄧ,就是將對於美國次級房貸市場如何發展起來、次級房貸危機的起因與主因、及其對美國與其他國家的影響進行了詳細的闡述。
      而實證部份,採用多元迴歸分析,分別以美國抵押型不動產投資信託基金(REITs)與台灣發行之八檔上市上櫃不動產投資信託基金為研究對象,並利用房屋貸款成長率與GDP成長率之差額作為衡量房屋市場信用擴張程度及房貸違約率兩變數來探討其是否會反應在美國與台灣REITs市場。結果發現不管是美國抵押型REITs或是台灣的權益型REITs的風險溢酬皆沒有充分反應房貸信用擴張及房貸違約率所造成的影響,亦即兩者的風險溢酬皆有被低估的現象。而不管是美國次貸風暴或是實證結果皆可以發現市場上存在訊息不對稱的現象。
    <br> The rapid expansion in the supply of mortgages driven by disintermediation explains a large fraction of recent U.S. house price appreciation and subsequent mortgage defaults. And the moral hazard on behalf of originators selling mortgages is a main culprit for the U.S. mortgage default crisis. The first goal of this study is to explain what is subprime mortgage and investgate the causes of subprime mortgage crsis. And also show how this crsis affect this world.
    This study uses the U.S. Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts and Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts in Taiwan as empirical objects, and intends to understand how the credit expansion in house mortgage market and delinquency rates impact the risk premium of the Real Estate Investment Trusts. The result is both variables are not significantly positive effect on the risk premium of the Real Estate Investment Trusts in U.S. and Taiwan. And no matter the subprime mortgage crsis or the empirical results, we can explain these phenomenons by”Asymmetric information”.
    Reference: 一、中文部份
    1. 工商時報(2007),「次級房貸風暴星火燎原」,工商時報社論,2007年8月20日。
    2. 王薇,2005。「實證Equity & Mortgage REIT Index 彼此間的關聯性—以美國市場為例」。碩士論文,國立中正大學企業管理研究所。
    3. 王豊貿,2006。「REITs 與股票報酬行為因果關係及通貨膨脹避險效果之探討」。碩士論文,國立中正大學國際經濟研究所。
    4. 李勝彥,2007。「美國次級房貸風暴對台灣總體經濟之可能效應」。金融證券投資諮詢財金論壇,台灣綜合研究院。
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    6. 吳秋璇、陳品橋、吳嘉欽、劉宗盛,2005。『REITs不動產投資信託』。英屬維京群島商高寶國際有限公司台灣分公司。
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    8. 韋伯韜、周信佑,2007。「美國次級房貸風暴影響深遠」,財團法人國家政策研究基金會。
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    11. 張立羣,2006。「不動產投資信託之報酬與交易量」。碩士論文,國立台灣大學財務金融研究所。
    12. 第一銀行,2007。「美國次級房貸風暴簡析」。產經資訊快報,第39期。
    13. 張金鶚、白金安,2005。『不動產證券化-理論與實務』。證基會。
    14. 張金鶚,2003。『房地產投資與市場分析: 理論與實務(上篇: 房地產投資分析)』。華泰文化事業股份有限公司。
    15. 陳建安,2004。「台灣不動產投資信託報酬解釋因素之研究」。碩士論文,私立朝陽科技大學財務金融研究所。
    16. 陳彧如,2005。「不動產投資信託對投資組合多角化的影響---全球實證」。碩士論文,國立中央大學財務金融研究所。
    17. 陳燕珠,2006。「台灣REITs 的投資風險分析」。碩士論文,國立中央大學財務金融研究所。
    18. 陳進安,2007。「美國次級房貸市場惡化原因及影響」。兆豐國際商業銀行企劃處研究報告。
    19. 陳進安,2007。「美國次級房貸風暴再起之探討」。兆豐國際商業銀行企劃處研究報告。
    20. 曾家慶,2007。「延燒中的美國次級房貸」。華南金控(2005)第57期。
    21. 黃仁德、林進煌,2007。『國際金融危機的經驗與啟示』。聯經出版事業股份有限
    公司。
    22. 黃俊晏,2006。「不動產投資信託報酬與不動產類型之研究」。碩士論文,國立中央大學財務金融研究所。
    23. 黃宜靖,2006。「不動產投資信託於國際資產配置角色之研究」。碩士論文,國立中央大學財務金融研究所。
    24. 楊家彥,2007。「美國次級房貸對我國經濟之影響」,台經院研究報告。
    25. 楊麗花,2007。「美國次級房貸危機及其經濟影響」,雲南財經大學學報第23卷第6期。
    26. 董俊良,2004。「美國不動產投資信託報酬與風險之研究」。碩士論文,長庚大學企業管理研究所。
    27. 郭庭毓,2006。「美國REITs 報酬率的預測因子之研究」。碩士論文,國立台灣大學國際企業研究所。
    28. 劉維寜,2007。「從美國次級房貸風暴談證券化商品投資前景」,金融證券投資諮詢財金論壇,台灣綜合研究院。
    29. 賴建宇,2007。「次級房貸風暴吹垮全球信評」。天下雜誌,第378期。
    30. 儲蓉,2007。「如何利用信用評等資訊解讀REITs、CDO 投資風險」,金融證券投資諮詢財金論壇,台灣綜合研究院。
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    二、外文部份
    1. A Pennington-Cross, S Chomsisengphet (2007), “Subprime Refinancing: Equity Extraction and Mortgage Termination” Real Estate Economics, Vol.35, 233-263.
    2. Atif Main and Amir Sufi (2008), “The Consquence of mortgage credit expancion: Evidence frome the 2007 mortgage default crisis”, Working paper.
    3. Benjamin J. Keys, Tanmoy Mukherjee, Amit Seru, Vikrant Vig (2007), “Securitization and Screening: Evidence from Subprime Mortgage Backed Securities”
    4. Ben s. Bernake(2007), “The Housing Market and Subprime Lending”, 2007 International Monetary Conference, Cape, Town, South Africa, June 5.
    5. Bond, S., Dungey, M. and Fry, R. (2006), ” A Web of Shocks: Crisis Across Asian Real Estate Markets”, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,32 (3), 253-274.
    6. Buiter, W. (2007), .Lessons from the 2007 Financial Crisis., CEPR, Policy Insight No. 18
    7. Chan, K.C., and Daniel D. Tzang(1988), “Interest-rate Sensitivity of Real Estate
    Investment Trusts”, Journal of Real Estate Research. 1988, Volume: 3 , Issue: 3 , Pages: 13-22.
    8. Chen, Su-Jane, Cheng-Ho Hsieh, and Bradford. D. Jordan(1997), “Real Estate and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory:Macrovariables vs. Derived Factors”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol25, pp.505-23.
    9. Chen, Su-Jane, Cheng-Ho Hsieh, and Timothy w. Vines, and Shur-Nuaan Chiou, 1998. “Macroeconomic Variables, Firm-Specific Variables and Returns to REITs”, Journal of Real Estate Research,Vol16:3, pp.269-277.
    10. Chen, Jun and Peiser, Richard, 1999.“The Risk and Return Characteristics if REITs – 1993-1997”Real Estate Finance . 16(1), 61-68.
    11. Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni, Deniz Igan, and Luc Laeven, 2008, “Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market”, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 6683, London, UK: CEPR.”
    12. Edward M. Gramlich(2004), “Subprime Mortgage Lending: Benefits, Costs, and Challenges”, remarks at the Financial Services Rountable Annual Housing Policy Meeting, Chicago, Illinois, May 21.
    13. Elizabeth Laderman (2001)“Subprime mortgage lending and the capital markets”Journal FRBSF Economic Letter.
    14. Ewing and Payne(2003), “The Response of Real Estate Investment Trusts Returns to Macroeconomics Shocks”, Journal of Business Research , forthcoming.
    15. Garvey, R., Santry, G. and Stevenson, S. (2001), ” The Linkages Between Real Estate Securities in the Asia Pacific”, Pacific Research Property Research Journal,7(4), 240-258.
    16. Glascock, John L., Chiuling Lu, and Raymond W. So(2002),“REITs Returns and Inflation:Perverse or Reverse Causality Effects?”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,Vol24:3, pp.301-317.
    17. Grebler, L. and Burns, L.(1982)“Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II”, AREUEA Journal,10(2), pp.123-152.
    18. IMF (2007), Global Financial Stability Report, September 2007.
    19. IMF (2007), Global Economic Outlook, October 2007.
    20. Jaffee, Dwight and John M. Quigley, 2007 “Housing Policy, Subprime Mortgage Policy, and the Federal Housing Administration,” Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    21. Karolyi G.. A. and Sanders A.B. (1998), “The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums in Real Estate Returns”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol.17, pp.245-262.
    22. Ling, D.C. and A. Naranjo(1997), “Economic Risk Factors Commercial Real Estate Returns”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol.14, pp283-307.
    23. Mark Doms, Frederick Furlong and John Krainer (2007), “House prices and subprime mortgage delinquencies” FRBSF Economic Letter.
    24. Mark Doms, Frederick Furlong and John Krainer (2007), “ Subprime mortgage Delinquency Rates”, Federal Reserve Bank Of San Francisco Working Paper Series.
    25. Marsha J. Courchane, Brian J. Surette and Peter M. Zorn (2004), “Subprime Borrowers: Mortgage Transitions and Outcomes” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol29, pp.365-392.
    26. Myer, F.C.N., Chaudhry, M.K. and Webb. J.R. (1997), ”Stationarity and Cointegration in Systems with Three National Real Estate Indices”, Journal of Real Estate Research,13 (3), 369-381.
    27. McCue, T.E. and J. L. Kling (1994), “Real Estate Returns and the Macroeconomy:Some Empirical Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trust Data”,1972-1991”, Journal of Real Estate Research,Vol1.9:3, pp.277-287.
    28. Moore, G.(1961), “Business Cycle Indicators Volume I Contribution to the Analysis of Current Business Conditions”, Prineton L.Press.
    29. Pyhrr S. and Cooper, J.(1982), “Real Estate Investment”, John Willey & Sons, Inc.
    30. Peterson, James D. and Cheng-Ho Hsieh. (1997). “Do Common RiskFactors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds Explain Returns on REITs?”, Real Estate Economics Vol25, pp.321-345.
    31. Richard J. Rosen (2007), “The role of securitization in mortgage lending”, Chicago Fed Letter, November 2007.
    32. Sumit Agarwal & Calvin T. Ho (2007), “Comparing the prime and subprime mortgage markets”, Chicago Fed Letter, August.
    33. Tamim Bayoumi and Laura Kodres (2007),“Money for Nothing and Checks for Free: Recent Developments in U.S. Subprime Mortgage Markets”, IMF Working Paper.
    34. The Economist (2007), “Shakedown”, March 14th.
    35. The Economist (2007), “The trouble with the housing market”, March 22th.
    36. The Economist (2007), “Surviving the markets”, August 16th.
    37. The Economist (2007), “The game is up”, August 16th.
    38. The Economist (2007), “The first cut is the deepest”, August 17th.
    39. Yunus, Nafeesa and Peggy E. Swanson(2006), ”Modeling Linkages Between US and Asian Securitized Property Markets”, an update Paper presented at the 2006 FMA Annual Meeting Preliminary Academic Program, Salt Lake City, Utah.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營與貿易研究所
    95351033
    96
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095351033
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[國際經營與貿易學系 ] 學位論文

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