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    Title: 客觀標準化不動產估價之可行性分析─市場比較法應用於大量估價
    The Feasibility Analysis of the Objective Standardized Real Estate Appraisal─The Market Comparative Approach Applies to Automated Valuation Methods
    Authors: 龔永香
    Contributors: 張金鶚
    Chang, Chin-Oh
    龔永香
    Keywords: 不動產估價
    市場比較法
    比較標的選取
    大量估價
    real estate appraisal
    market comparative approach
    selecting comparative subject
    mass appraisal
    Date: 2006
    Issue Date: 2009-09-19 13:14:09 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 市場比較法估價過程需要經比較、分析及調整三階段,而估價師於個別估價應用中因缺乏標準化依據,造成估價過程常被質疑過於主觀且偏重經驗法則,導致估價結果產生因人而異現象。基於此本研究乃建立大量估價模型,運用估價師進行市場比較法行為邏輯,在選取比較案例階段採用明科斯基距離概念,並結合特徵價格理論,建立大量樣本的客觀標準化估價模型。藉由此模型分析,估價師不需要主觀預測,可改善過去估價結果不一致情形,並達到大量估價目的。
    透過隨機抽樣的重覆實驗,實證結果發現,以模型的平均百分比預測誤差與命中率比較,整體而言未劃分次市場估價模型皆較劃分次市場準確,且其穩定度亦較高,而劃分次市場較不準確的原因,在於舊市區的表現不穩定,與市郊區的估值表現較差所致。經本研究結果,不論劃分次市場與否,標準化大量估價模型大致上均達到研究預設水準,然劃分次市場模型雖有時較準確但未優於未分區模型甚多,顯示適當劃分次市場可提高準確度,但資料太少時,劃分次市場可能產生統計偏誤問題。
    The process of the market comparative approach includes three stages:comparing ,analyzing and adjusting. Real estate appraisers lack the standardized basis in the individual appraisal application, so they are often challenged by subjectivity and stressing experience, which leads to the phenomenon that appraisal results are always different from person to person. Based on this, our research establishes the automated valuation methods. By applying the appraisers’ behavior in market comparative approach, we use minkowski metric in selecting comparative subject, and associate with hedonic price theory to establish objective standardized real estate appraisal model. By using this model, the appraisers can avoid subjective forecasting, reduce inconsistency, and therefore achieve the goal of mass appraisal.
    Through the repetition experiment of random sampling, we compare MAPE and Hit-rate between models. The result shows that non-delimited markets are more accurate and stable than delimited markets. The reason for this is the instability caused by older district of the city and bad performance in the suburban area. After these findings, no matter delimited market or not, the standardized mass appraisal model achieved the research standard we had set in advance. Sometimes the model of delimited market is more accurate, though not by a significant amount, it shows that higher accuracy can be expected through adequate market segmentation, but will lead to bias when lack of datum.
    Reference: 中文參考文獻
    1. 台灣房地產景氣動向季報第七卷第四期,內政部建築研究所
    2. 李月華, 1999,台北市住宅價格模型之研究,淡江大學管理科學學系博士論文。
    3. 林英彥,2003,不動產估價理論第九版,文笙書局
    4. 林秋瑾、楊宗憲、張金鶚,1996,住宅價格指數之研究-以台北市為例,住宅學報,第4期,pp1-30。
    5. 林祖嘉,1992,台灣地區房租與房價關係之研究,台灣銀行季刊,43(1),pp279-312。
    6. 黃淑惠,2000,改進地價稅稅基的評估以廣增都市建設的財源-逼近調整法之應用,都市與計劃,第27卷3期,297-317
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    英文參考文獻
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    3. Charles A. Calhoun(2001), “Property Valuation Methods and Data in The United States,” Housing Finance International
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    10. Isakson, H. R. (1986), “The Nearest Neighbor Appraisal Technique:An Alternative to the Adjustment Grid Methods,” AREUEA Journal, 14(2):274-286.
    11. Isakson, H. R. (2002), “The Linear Agebra of the Sales Comparison Approach,” The Journal of Real Estate Research, 24(2):117-128.
    12. Kang, Han-Bin, A. K. Reichert (1991), “An Empirical Analysis of Hedonic Regression and Grid-Adjustment Techniques in real estate appraisal,” AREUEA Journal, 19:70-91.
    13. Kinnard, W. N. and B. N. Boyce (1978), “An Introduction to Appraisal Real Property,” Chicago: Society of Real Estate Appraisers.
    14. kummerow, M. and Hanga Galfalvy. (2002), “Error Trade-off in Regression Appraisal Methods, ” in Wang, Ko and Marvin Wolverton, Eds. Real Estate Valuation Theory. Norwell, MA, Kluwer Academic Publisher: 105-132
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    18. McCain, R. A., P. Jensen,et al.(2003). “Research on Valuation of Land and Improvements in Philadelphia”, Department of Economics and International Business, LeBow College of Business Administration, Drexel University, Philadelphia: 1-24.
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政研究所
    94257026
    95
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094257026
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 學位論文

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