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    Title: 單一選區兩票制下台灣選民之投票行為:2008年立法委員選舉的多層分析
    Authors: 蕭怡靖
    Contributors: 黃紀
    劉義周

    蕭怡靖
    Keywords: 單一選區兩票制
    投票行為
    多層分析
    Date: 2008
    Issue Date: 2009-09-19 13:21:49 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 2008年立法委員選舉台灣首度採用「單一選區兩票並立制」。除了多數選區必須重新規劃外,選民也首度有機會在一次選舉針對「同一職位」握有兩張選票,一票投人、一票投黨,提供選民更多元的投票選擇。學理上,選民的投票抉擇,除了受到個人背景與心理認知態度的影響外,所處的外在環境也會透過人際互動或環境氛圍,會影響選民的投票抉擇。在方法上,若忽略總體層次的影響,將可能高估個體層次自變數在統計檢定上的顯著效果。為此,本研究藉由多層模型的建構,利用「階層推廣線性模型」(HGLM)的統計方法,將選民個體層次與選區總體層次的變數同時納入模型分析,檢視影響選民投票抉擇的因素。
    研究結果發現,除了選民個人的人口特徵與政治態度外,選民所處之外在選區環境特性,也確實對於選民的投票抉擇具有顯著的解釋力。其中包括選區的經濟發展、政黨勢力版圖、候選人屬性等。而這種系絡效果在單一選區候選人票的影響力要高於政黨比例代表選票。此外,在兩票制下,選民採取一致投票的比例相當高,達76.6%。小黨認同者為避免浪費選票,在單一選區中確實存在策略投票,導致分裂投票的結果。不過在政黨比例代表的選票上,也因為有5%的席次分配門檻,也會出現策略投票的結果。但不論選民因何種因素採取分裂投票,皆存在以泛藍、泛綠為主的「聯盟投票」型態。且泛藍陣營內的聯盟投票要比泛綠陣營來的明顯,驗證了台灣目前政黨競爭的情境與政治氛圍。
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