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https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37390
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| Title: | 選民投票行為與政黨輪替：台灣及墨西哥二０００年總統選舉之比較 |
| Authors: | 許勝懋
Hsu, Shen Mao |
| Contributors: | 劉義周
鄧中堅
許勝懋
Hsu, Shen Mao |
| Keywords: | 政黨輪替
政黨重組
候選人因素
對候選人情感溫度
經濟前瞻評價
改革議題
party rotation
party realignment
candidate image
feeling thermometers
prospective economic voting
the salience issue of change |
| Date: | 2006 |
| Issue Date: | 2009-09-19 13:22:49 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 民主政治運作過程中，當主政者無法滿足選民需求時，選民理所當然會以選票表達其自主性，找一個更符合其需求的政黨作為治理國家的代理人（總統）。政黨輪替就成為選民選擇最佳代理人的手段。政黨輪替的本身，就是一種權力交替與權力制衡，特別是在執政黨交不出政績的時候，政黨輪替就是一個民主的制裁機制，更是一個國家走向民主政治的重要指標。
影響選民決定更換治國代理人的投票抉擇因素，主要有政黨因素、候選人因素，抑或是議題因素。無論在美國與其他西方國家，甚至在已開發或開發中國家都已經獲得印證。當選民利用參考標的進行投票，選民的總統選舉投票結果將會匯集成決定最後政權誰屬。把票投給執政黨的候選人，還是把票投給在野政黨的候選人，不僅攸關個別政黨與候選人的選舉成敗，而且還影響到統治權力歸屬，甚至會牽動政黨輪替執政的可能性，其重要性，不言而諭。也正因如此，政治學者亟思理出選舉各黨勢力消長的軌跡，試圖描繪出選民投票抉擇的決定如何影響政治權力的轉移。
本文的目的，是研究選民投票抉擇的一般原則應用到總統選舉結果「政權轉移」或「政黨輪替」這個重要的主題，針對可能造成多數選民由投票支持原有執政黨轉而投票支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因進行討論。台灣與墨西哥這兩個長久以來一黨威權獨大的政權，卻同時在西元二○○○年發生政黨輪替的現象。有關選民選擇支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因，主要從三個面向進行討論：
首先，政黨認同因素，選民政黨認同發生改變所引發的政黨認同重組現象，讓原本獲得多數選民支持的執政黨，因為政黨重組的因素變成僅吸引少數選民支持的在野黨；相反地，原本僅有少數選民支持的在野黨，因為政黨重組的關係變成吸引多數選民支持的執政黨。其次，候選人因素，候選人人格特質、能力與對候選人情感溫度等因素，讓多數選民受候選人這個短期因素所影響而選擇支持最大在野黨執政。最後，議題因素，選民的展望性評價與重大議題中的改革議題，因選民希冀更換原有執政黨，由最大反對黨執政，能夠改變趨於日益不振的經濟現況，並透過大幅改革能改變舊政府的缺失，期望新政府能夠振衰起弊。
In the democratic operation process, when the director is unable meet the citizens need, the citizen would express their autonomy by votes. Looking for one (or political party) who could conform to the citizens demand takes the government (president) of this country. Party rotation is a democratic sanction mechanism. That is an important indicator for country achieving the democracy.
There are some factors must be considered while establishing voting behavior models in the turnover elections. There mainly are the party identification or party preference, the candidate image, and policy orientation. My thesis finds that party realignment is the key variable for 2000 Mexican presidential election, but 2000 Taiwan presidential is not. Candidate image or candidate personality centers on competence, likeability, honesty, reliability, and understanding people’s needs. Candidate evaluation refers to an overall assessment of the candidates: it is measured by way of “feeling thermometers”. My study found that candidate image is an important factor in determining Mexican and Taiwan voters choosing the opposition party candidate for a new president. The results shows that the policy issues, including prospective economic voting and the salience issue of change influence people’s voting choices. |
| Reference: | 壹、中文部分
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陳文俊，1995，《統獨議題與選民的投票行為—民國八十三年省市長選舉分析》，選舉研究，2卷2期，頁99-136。
陳文俊，2003，《藍與綠—台灣選民的政治意識型態初探》，選舉研究，10卷1期，頁41-80。
陳世敏，1992，《候選人形象與選民投票行為》，新聞學研究，46期，頁148-168。
陳俊明，2005，《政黨輪替、文武關係與台灣民主鞏固：分析架構與策略》，政治科學論叢，24期，頁77-110。
陳陸輝，2000，《台灣選民政黨認同的持續與變遷》，選舉研究，7卷2期，頁109-139。
陳義彥，1994，《我國選民的集群分析及其投票傾向的預測：從民國八十一年立委選舉探討》，選舉研究，1卷1期，頁1-37。
陳義彥，2003，《台灣選舉行為調查的回顧與展望～「TEDS2001」學術研討會圓桌論壇講詞》，選舉研究，10卷1期，頁1-6。
陳義彥、蔡孟熹，1997，《新世代選民的政黨取向與投票抉擇—首屆民選總統的分析》，政治學報，29卷，頁63-92。
游盈隆，1994，《台灣選民的議題取向投票：二屆國大選民的分析》，東吳政治學報，3期，頁219-254。
游盈隆，1999，《台灣族群認同的政治心理分析》，台灣政治學刊，1期，頁41-84。
游清鑫，1996，《台灣政治民主化之鞏固：前景與隱憂》，政治學報，27期，頁201-223。
黃光國，2000，《多元典範的研究取向：論社會心理學的本土化》，社會理論學報，3卷1期，頁1-51
黃紀，2001，《一致與分裂投票：方法論之探討》，人文與社會科學集刊，13卷5期，頁541-574。
黃秀端，1994，《經濟情況與選民投票抉擇》，東吳政治學報，3期，頁97-123。
黃秀端，1996，《決定勝負的關鍵：候選人特質與能力在總統選舉中的重要性》，選舉研究，3卷1期，頁103-136。
黃秀端，2005，《候選人形象、候選人情感溫度計、與總統選民投票行為》，台灣民主季刊，2卷4期，頁1-30。
傅明穎，1998，《北市選民的候選人評價與投票決定》，台灣政治學刊，3期，頁195-244。
傅恆德，1996，《決定投票選擇的結構、心理和理性因素：民國八十五年總統選舉研究，選舉研究，3卷2期，頁157-186。
謝復生、牛銘實、林慧萍，1995，《民國八十三年省市長選舉中之議題投票：理性抉擇理論之分析》，選舉研究，2卷1期，77-92。
劉天均，1994，《析墨西哥一九九四年大選》，問題與研究，33卷12期，頁34-47。
劉義周，1994，《台灣政黨形象的世代差異》，選舉研究，1卷1期，頁53-73。
劉義周，2005，《典型的回顧型投票—2005年三合一選舉結果的解析》，臺灣民主季刊，2卷4期，頁147-153。
劉從葦，2004，《中央與地方分立政府的形成：一個空間理論的觀點》，臺灣政治學刊，7卷2期，頁107-147。
鄭曉時，1992，《政體與軍隊：台灣文武關係（1950-1987）的一個分析架構》，人文及社會科學集刊，5卷1期，頁129-172。
駱明慶，2001，教育成就的省籍與性別差異，經濟論文叢刊，29期，頁117-152。
顧忠華，1999，《公民結社的結構變遷—以台灣非營利組織的發展為例》，台灣社會研究季刊，36期，頁123-145。
三、論文
林瓊珠，1998，台灣政黨體系重組過程之研究：一九九一年至一九九六年，政治大學政治研究所碩士論文。
徐火炎，2001，《台灣政黨版圖的重劃：民進黨、國民黨與親民黨的「民」基比較》，發表於2001年台灣政治學會年會暨政黨輪替後之台灣政治學術研討會論文集，台灣政治學會、政治大學政治系與政治大學選舉研究中心，2001年12月15-16日。
徐永明， 2000，《南方政治"的形成？台灣政黨支持的地域差別：1994-2000》，發表於「新世紀的選舉學術研討會」，政治大學選舉研究中心主辦，台北。
陳陸輝、耿曙，2003，《分立政府下的政治賦權：以2002年北高市長選舉為例》，2002年選舉與民主化調查研究學術研討，11月1-20日，台北，國立政治大學選舉研究中心。
陳義彥、陳陸輝，2002，《政治功效意識、政治信任感以及台灣選民的民主價值》，2001年選舉與民主化調查研究學術研討，10月19-20日，台北，國立政治大學選舉研究中心。
劉義周，1997，《政治學概念測量的困難：政黨認同的實例》，國立政治大學政治學系主辦「政治學研究方法」學術研討會宣讀論文，1997年5月31日。
劉義周，1998，《統獨態度的世代差異》，兩岸關係問題民意調查學術研討會論文集，國立政治大學與行政院大陸委員會，1997年5月17-18日。
四、資料
行政院內政部，《人口統計資料》，2001年。
中央選舉委員會與政治大學選舉研究中心共同開發，《歷屆公職人員選舉資料》，2007年。
政治大學選舉研究中心，《重要政治態度分佈趨勢》，2007年。
台灣大學，《臺灣二○○○年總統大選面訪調查計畫》，2002年。
行政院主計處第三局，《政府統計指標》，2007年。
中華民國外交部，《國情詳細內容》，2006年。
五、網路
李心怡，〈改革色彩獲認同，宋連瞠乎其後〉，博客來網路書店，http://www.books.com.tw/data/magazine/N-Taiwan.nsf/Item_View/855250C56C7A22F3482568A5002245B6-OpenDocument.htm，2002年5月10日。
胡小君，〈墨西哥革命制度黨緣何喪失政權？〉，人民網，http://politics.people.com.cn/BIG5/30178/3727474.html，2005年9月26日。
貳、西文部分
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(Ⅱ)Periodicals
Abramson, Paul R., 1976. “Generational Changeand the Decline of Party Identification in American:1952-1974”. American Political Science Review, 70: 469-478.
Achen, Chris. 1992. Social Psychology, Demographic Variables, and Linear Regression: Breaking the Iron Triangle in Voting Research. Political Behavior, 14:195-211.
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Buendia, Jorge. 1996. “Economic Reform, Public Opinion and Presidential Approval in Mexico, 1988-1993.” Comparative Political Studies, 29:566-592.
Chubb, John. E. 1988. “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections.” American Political Science Review, 82, 133-154.
Davis, Charles L., 1992. “Religion and Partisan Loyalty: The Case of Catholic Workers in Mexico.” Western Political Quarterly 45:275-297.
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Dominguez, Jorge I. and James McCann, 1995. “Shaping Mexico’s Electoral Arena: The Construction of Partisan Cleavages in the 1988 and 1991 National Elections.” American Political Science Review 89:34-48.
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Glass, David P. 1995. “Evaluating Presidential Candidates: Who Focuses on Their Personal Attributes.” Public Opinion Quarterly, 49:517-534.
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Hsieh, John, Dean Lacy, and Emerson Niou 1998. “Retrospective and Prospective Voting in a One-Party-Dominant Democracy: Taiwan’s Presidential Election.” Public Choice, 97:383-399.
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Winckler, Edwin A., 1984. “Institutionalization and Participation on Taiwan: From Hard to Soft Authoritarianism﹖” The China Quarterly, 99:481-499.
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(III)Conference Papers
Magaloni, Beatriz, 1997. “ A Bayesian Retrospective Model of Electoral Choice in Dominant Party Systems.” Paper Presented at the American Political Science Association Meeting. Washington D.C.
Moreno, Alejandro, 2002. “The Coalition for Change: Voters, Parties, and Democratic Transition in Mexico.” Paper present at Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, APSA, Boston. August 29-September 1, 2002.
O’Donnell, Guillermo, 1995. “Partial Institutionalization: Latin American and Elsewhere.” An International Conference on Consolidation the Third Wave Democracies: Trends and Challenges. Taipei.
(IV)Documents
Elección de Presidente de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, Estadística de las Elecciones Federales de México 2000, Direccion Ejecutiva de Organiztcion Electoral, Instute Federal Electoral. December 10, 2000.
Diario Oficial de la Federación, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, http://www.inegi.gob.mx. July 21, 2006. |
| Description: | 博士
國立政治大學
政治研究所
89252504
95 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892525042 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [政治學系] 學位論文
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