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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/3837


    Title: 台灣地區生育率預測模型的研究
    Other Titles: A Study of Fertility Projection Methods in Taiwan Area
    Authors: 余清祥
    Keywords: 生育率;預測;縱斷面;主成份分析;擴散;胎次別
    Fertility Rates;Projection;Cohort;Principal Component Analysis;Diffusion;Parity-specific
    Date: 2003
    Issue Date: 2007-04-18 16:36:41 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 臺北市：國立政治大學統計學系
    Abstract: 生育率的降低是影響台灣地區近年來人 口老化的顯著因素，因其變化幅度通常高於 死亡率，對人口結構的影響較大。例如：民 國 50 年的總生育率為 5.58(也就是平均一對 夫婦生育 5.58 個小孩)，到民國 70 年時已下 降到 1.67，二十年間約下降了 70%。近年來 生育率似乎仍然有持續下降的趨勢，去年 (民 國 90 年)的總生育率甚至只有 1.4，創歷年來 的新低；加上高齡死亡率的下降，台灣地區 人口有加速高齡化的趨勢 (民國 91 年 11 月底 時 65 歲老年人已佔全國人口的 9%)。若能找 到適當描述台灣生育率下降的預測模型，可 提供各界參考，提早因應低生育率高齡化社 會的各種問題。 本文研究台灣地區的生育率，以統計分 析的觀點探討與預測未來趨勢，考慮無母數 及 半 參 數 模 型 ， 包 括 年 齡 別 生 育 率 (包括 Lee-Carter 模型)、胎次別生育率、擴散(及世 代， Cohort)等模型配適台灣地區的生育率模 式，尋找較能反映台灣地區婦女生育特性 (包 括總生育率及年齡別生育率 )的方法，提供各 界預測未來台灣婦女生育率的參考。本研究 將以台灣西元 1975 年至 1996 年的資料為基 礎，西元 1997 年至 2001 年資料為檢測樣本 的驗證資料，比較上述三類方法，尋求較適 合台灣地區生育率的模型。除此之外，我們 也計畫將本研究發現的較佳模型，套用到其 他國家 (如美國)，比較其預測效果是否也最 佳。
    Both the fertility rates and mortality rates have been experiencing dramatic decreases in recent years, and thus the population aging thus has become one of the major concerns in Taiwan area. Because the decrease of fertility rate is especially significant (e.g. the total fertility rate was 5.58 in 1961, and then decreases dramatically to 1.67 in 1981, a reduction of almost 70% within 20 years), the projection of fertility rates is likely to play an important role and seeking a good fertility model becomes critical in welfare planning. The goal of this study is to study the fertility pattern in Taiwan area. In particular, since the parametric models are not good candidates (see Huang and Yue, 2002, for detailed discussion), we will focus on semi-parametric and nonparametric models. The models considered in this study are age-specific fertility models (Principal Component Analysis, including Lee-Carter model), parity-specific fertility rates models, fertility diffusion model (i.e. a cohort model). We use the data from 1975 to 1996 as pilot data and 1997 to 2001 as test data to judge which model has the best fit. Also, we will test the best model on other countries and see if it still has the best fit.
    Description: 核定金額：458500元
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[統計學系] 國科會研究計畫

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