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    Title: 台灣地區各鄉鎮市區生育率的空間關係研究
    Other Titles: A Study of Spatial Relationship for Fertility in Taiwan Area
    Authors: 余清祥
    Keywords: 生育率;人口老化;空間統計;空間群聚
    Fertility Rates;Aging Population;Spatial Statistics;Spatial Clustering
    Date: 2004
    Issue Date: 2007-04-18 16:36:57 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 臺北市:國立政治大學統計學系
    Abstract: 生育率的降低是影響台灣地區近年來人口老化的顯著因素,因其變化幅度 通常高於死亡率,對人口結構的影響較大;然而由於台灣地區生育率變化趨勢 在各年齡不同,其他各國使用的模型,在台灣地區明顯不合適,反而是不同年 齡組各自配適迴歸模型會有較小的預測誤差較佳。生育率模型的比較,詳見黃 意萍與余清祥(2002)、余清祥與藍銘偉(2003)對Lee-Carter、擴散等模型的實證 研究與討論。 為能更深入瞭解台灣生育行為變化的特性,本計畫預計將研究生育率的層 面由整體的資料(包括全國總生育率、年齡別生育率、胎次別生育率等統計數 值),延伸至全台灣地區的各鄉鎮市區(不含離島地區有350 個鄉鎮市區),希 冀能更精確地找出與台灣地區生育率持續下降的相關因素。本計畫將分為兩個 部份,以鄉鎮市區的年齡別婦女生育率與年齡別有偶婦女生育率為研究對象, 資料時間為1970 至2001 年。第一部份將探討各鄉鎮市區的生育率數值間是否 存在空間相關,並進一步瞭解生育率較高(或較低)的地區是否有聚集的現象。 第二部份則套用空間迴歸模型探討與生育率數值有關的因素(例如:人口密度、 教育程度等),更精確且客觀地提供生育率未來趨勢的建議。
    Both the fertility rates and mortality rates, especially the fertility rates, have been experiencing dramatic decreases in recent years, and the population aging thus has become one of the major concerns in Taiwan area. Because trends of the fertility rates vary a lot for different age groups, most fertility models fail to provide better projections, comparing to the simplest model, individual regression model for each age group. For the details of these comparisons, see Huang and Yue (2002) and Yue and Lan (2003). In order to identify the factors that are related to the decrease of fertility rates, unlike the previous works that deal with the aggregate national data, we will study the fertility pattern in township level. We will use the data of age-specific fertility rates and age-specific fertility rates of married women between 1970 and 2001 in 350 townships of Taiwan area. This project will be separated into two parts. First, we shall explore if there exist spatial correlation among 350 townships of Taiwan area and detect if there are spatial clusters for higher fertility townships. The second part of this project will be focused on the spatial regression model. We will use this model to determine the factors that are highly correlated to the dropping of fertility rates.
    Description: 核定金額:439000元
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[統計學系] 國科會研究計畫

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