| Abstract: | 近年來，虛擬社群成為實務界與學術界的熱門話題，本計劃嘗試以量化之數據驗證有關虛擬社群流量之觀點，並記錄一個社群發展的軌跡。本計劃所探討的主題，為以興趣為導向之虛擬社群的建置與發展，藉由架設F.I.T 「飛的網」網站(http://fit.nccu.edu.tw)，以觀察社群的興起，並使用較接近實際情況的「準實驗設計」中的時間序列(GroupTime-Series Design)法，以時間點區隔，於網站發展趨於穩定，且社群成員有相當的數量之後，開始加入單一的處理(treatment)，觀察並記錄變數對社群的影響。加入變數的時間點即為資料分析的區隔點，在時間點之前為對照的資料組，而在時間點之後為實驗的資料組，在單一的變數對社群的影響趨於穩定之後，才考慮實驗另一個單一的處理。在實驗的過程中使用了兩個實驗處理，並以瀏覽頁數、上站人數、會員註冊人數與平均停留時間這四個指標衡量網站流量，使用單因子變異數分析與時間序列分析，探討這兩個實驗處理對網站流量的影響。研究的結果發現，各個實驗處理所影響的網站流量指標不同，實驗處理一對於網站的瀏覽頁數、上站人數、註冊人數都有提昇的作用，實驗處理二對於網站的瀏覽頁數、上站人數、平均停留時間都有明顯的提昇，但對於網站的註冊人數沒有明顯的影響。分析網站使用者填答的滿意度問卷發現，網站的設計因素對使用者滿意度有顯著的影響，進一部分析F.I.T「飛的網」使用者的購物意願發現，如果飛的網進一步發展線上購物，則最適合銷售「休閒娛樂」與「美容裝飾」的產品。
The research results of a quasi-experiment on an award-winning website are reported. A virtual community was built on this website to study its performance under the influence of two treatments. The first treatment was an administrative modification – a change of membership policy that restricted nonmembers’ access to a popular area of the website. The second treatment was the addition of an advanced feature that helped cultivate a virtual community, using combined push and pull capabilities. Data of four traffic performance metrics were recorded: pageview, visitor count, daily registration, and average duration. The data points preceding the treatment were analyzed using time-series ARIMA model to predict the data points subsequent to the treatment. In order to illustrate the effect of the treatment, the actual data prior to the treatment, the actual data following the treatment, and the predicted data are plotted on the same graph. This allows a clear visual inspection of how the treatment affects the data trend. The results show that for the first treatment, pageview, visitor count, and daily registration, all increased considerably. However, the levels of pageview and visitor count dropped back down very fast, while daily registration stayed high. Conversely, the seemingly positive treatment did not result in an increase of average duration. Unlike other performance metrics, average duration decreased. For the second treatment, the levels of pageview, visitor count, and average duration not only increased, but also stayed high. However, the treatment did not tend to change daily registration, as the level did not change much. |
