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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 會計學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/47585
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/47585


    Title: 財務分析師、管理當局及統計模式預測準確度之比較研究
    Authors: 吳安妮
    Keywords: 財務分析師預測;管理當局預測;統計模式預測;銷貨預測;稅前淨利預測;市場期望;資訊內涵;帶趨勢隨機漫步模式
    Forecasts;Management forecasts;Statistical modeling forecasts;Sale forecasts;Profit before tax forecasts;Market expectation;Information content;Random walk with a drift model
    Date: 1993-07
    Issue Date: 2010-10-24 21:34:05 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 因台灣目前文獻雖有財務分析師與統計模式預測準確度之比較,及管理當局與統計模式預測準確度之比較,惟仍未有一研究同時探討財務分析師、管理當局、及統計模式三者間之預測準確度比較之情況;再者,近年來預測資訊已日受重視,有鑑於此,本研究擬深入了解並比較台灣之財務分析師、管理當局、及統計模式三者之預測準確度。本研究搜集了銷貨及稅前淨利預測之資料。且為提供正確及有效之資訊,故將財務分析師與管理當局年度第一個、年度平均、及年度最後一個預測值與統計模式預測相互比較。實證研究結果顯示:統計模式不管在銷貨或稅前淨利預測中皆屬最不準確者。而財務分析師與管理當局之銷貨與稅前淨利預測的準確度相當,因有些年度財務分析師之預測較準確,而在另外一些年度中則管理當局之預測較準確。個人認為此研究之結果不僅可做為其他盈餘預測相關研究之基礎(如盈除預測之資訊內涵),且可為投資者從事投資決策時,選擇有用資訊之參考。因為從此研究中證實:管理當局及財務分析師之銷貨或稅前淨利之預測準確度相當,並非有那一預測優於另一預測之情況。
    In Taiwanese literature, some studies examined the relative accuracy of management and statistical model forecasts, or accuracy of analysts and statistical model forecasts. However, no any research studies the relative accuracy of those three kinds of forecast-management, analysts, and statistical model forecasts. The objective of this study was to focus on this absence of research in literature. In order to provide relevant and accurate information, the study used the "year first", the "year means" and the "year last" forecasts as the comparison basis. From the empirical tests, management and analysts forecasts were superior to the statistical model forecasts. However, the relative accuracy of management and analysts forecasts are almost the same. The investors may benefit from a better understanding of the testing results of this study.
    Relation: 管理評論,12,1-48
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[會計學系] 期刊論文

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