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    Title: 住宅次市場與價格泡沬互動關係之探討
    Other Titles: A Study of Interaction between Housing Submarket and Price Bubbles
    Authors: 張金鶚
    Keywords: 價格泡沫;住宅次市場;住宅類型;住宅區位;成屋價格
    Price bubble;Housing sub-market;Housing type;Housing location;Existence housing price
    Date: 2000
    Issue Date: 2007-04-18 18:24:06 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 臺北市:國立政治大學地政學系
    Abstract: 住宅價格的泡沫現象過去國內雖有文獻討論,但多半僅進行檢定,並未實際估計出價格泡沫的水準,本文參考Handershott and Abraham(1996)對價格泡沫的定義與實證上的方法,界定住宅價格基值與其總體影響因素的關係,並建立理論模型的架構,利用台北市成屋的住宅價格平減單價,進一步估計基值及價格泡沫。實證結果顯示,台北市成屋市場在民國76年以前並不存在價格泡沫,民國76年開始由於經濟景氣的上升,價格泡沫佔市價的比重也隨之上揚,到78年達到最高點,此時價格泡沫為7.29萬/坪,佔市價的比重為30%。隨後雖然經濟景氣逐步衰退,但價格泡沫佔市價的比重仍維持在一個相對高的水準,至民國83年以後,比重才由83年的27%開始下滑,而現在雖然經濟景氣處於低迷時期,成屋市場仍然存在價格泡沫,可間接證實房價依然偏高的疑慮,民國87年台北市成屋的價格泡沫約為3.48萬/坪,約佔市價的16%。
    In the past, there are some research about housing price bubbles in Taiwan. But only test the existence, no one estimate the value of the price bubble. We refer the way of Handershott and Abraham(1996) and develop the model structure to estimate the foundational and price bubble by the deflator-housing price of exist house in Taipei. From the output, there is no price bubble before the 1987 in Taipei. After 1987, since business cycle up, the rate of price bubble in market price increase. The highest is 30% (about NT22K per m2) in 1989. Then, since the business cycle down, the rate is still high. Until 1994, the rate start down. The rate down to 16% in 1998. (about NT10.5K per m2)
    Description: 核定金額:437400元
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 國科會研究計畫

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