政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/49124
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 110080/141030 (78%)
造访人次 : 46390048      在线人数 : 1150
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧：
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据
    •  进阶搜寻


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49124


    题名: 金融海嘯對航空產業之衝擊
    How the financial crises hit the aviation industry and airlines
    作者: 徐文光
    Hsu, Mark
    贡献者: 吳文傑
    Wu, Jack
    徐文光
    Hsu, Mark
    关键词: 金融海嘯
    日期: 2009
    上传时间: 2010-12-08 01:59:06 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 金融海嘯對航空產業之衝擊
    Aviation industry was habitually cyclical in nature, particularly for airline business. The collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 triggered a global credit shock that struck with surprising force in Asia. Before Lehman’s failure, many looked to the region as a bastion of economic stability. After all, Asia had high growth rates, large trade surpluses, and substantial foreign reserves. Most of Asian carriers were well capitalized and mostly free of union harassment afflicting their Western peers. Yet Asia couldn’t avoid the economic fallout from the troubles of Europe and the US. Asia’s economies remain fundamentally sound which is positive for the development of aviation industry. They had track record proven to emerge from the global downturn more rapidly than economies in other regions will. Nonetheless, the crisis has exposed trajectory of globalization and Asia depends heavily on external consumers. Even worse, after a turbulent and panic hedging end in 2008, Asian carriers heavily engaging exotic derivatives instead relying on plain vanilla swaps and options which put them into a bumpy ride of mark to market loss at the end of 2008. To respond the crisis instead of withdrawing from prudent risk taking mentality, the thesis explores various dimensions to form the building block to strengthen the resilience of future airlines business. We argue that more intelligent airlines would take advantage of developed analytics to optimize profit growth, pursue low cost model and strengthen operational and strategic decision making through IT solution. Adaptability is certainly front and center. The winner would ensure corporate process and structure would be engaged with all the staff broadly and respond and make decisions truly aligning with long term strategic intent. The thesis aims for analyzing the key external drivers of the current crisis and outlining the vision of advanced airline business tactics that potentially lead to a new era of equilibrium
    Chapter 1 Introduction
    1.1 Research Motive………………………………………………………………....1
    1.2 Research Objective………………………………………………………………3
    Chapter 2 Industry Outlook
    2.1 Crises Turn to Global Catastrophe……………………………………….4
    2.2 Ash Cloud in Regional Level………………………………………………...6
    2.3 Shareholder Value in a Downward Spiral…………………….……...8
    2.4 Correlation between Revenue and Traffic…………………………...9
    2.5 Correlation between Revenue and Stock Index………………….10
    2.6 Low Cost Revolution & Regional Carriers Response…………..11
    2.7 Plagued by Economic Forces……………………………………………..12
    2.8 Subsequent Downturn Regional Impact………………………….…13
    2.9 Survival Mode Still………………………………………………………..……15
    2.10 Low Cost Horizon……………………………………………………………….19
    Chapter 3 External Key Factors
    3.1 Vulnerability for Economic Indicator………………………………….21
    3.2 Character of GDP Driven Traffic………………………………………...27
    3.3 Demand Environment……………………………………………………….30
    3.4 Fuel Prices Vulnerability…………………………………………………….33
    Chapter 4 Strategy and Remedy
    4.1 Tactics of Survival in Uncertainty………………………………….……35
    4.1.1 Route Network Optimization…………..……………………....….37
    4.1.2 Yield Dynamic…………………………………..………………….……...38
    4.1.3 Cost Cutting is The Key……………………………………….………..41
    4.1.4 Cash is Premium and King………………………………………..…..45
    4.1.5 Manage Capacity………………………………………………………….46
    4.1.6 Consolidation and Cross Boarder Strategic Alliances…….49
    4.2 Fuel Phenomenon……………………………………………………………. 53
    4.2.1 Hedging Anxiety Syndrome……………………………………….….53
    4.2.2 Fuel Saving Maneuvers…………………………………………………55
    4.2.3 Derivatives Profile…………………………………………………………57
    4.2.4 Future Hedging Protocols………………………………………….….57
    Chapter 5 What is the Future Shape of Airline Industry
    5.1 Thought after Economic Forces or Uncertainty…………….……62
    5.2 Prospect Horizon……………………………………………………………....63
    5.3 Avoid Mismatch between Yield and Fuel Volatility…………….64
    5.4 Capacity Fine Tune with Economic Cycle……………………………65
    5.5 M&A and Alliance Frenzy………………………………………………..…70
    Chapter 6 Conclusion
    6.1 IT Driving Airlines Business Model…….……….……………………..70
    6.2 Sustainable Competitive Advantage……………………………..…..72
    Reference…………………………………………………………………………………………….75
    List of Figures………..…………………………………………………………………………...77
    List of Tables………....…………………………………………………………………..……...78
    參考文獻: 1. Alex Dichter, Fredrik Lind, and Seelan Singham, November 2008, “Turning around a struggling airline: an interview with CEO of Malaysia Airlines”, the McKinsey Quarterly, Governance.
    2. Alan Wheatley, “Asia’s infatuation with two-way trade saps WTO,” Reuters, June 23, 2008, 27-32
    3. Brian Pearce, January 2010, International Air Transport Association (IATA), “Fragile recovery and substantial risks remain”, (www.iata.org/economics)
    4. Chin Y. Lim, October 9, 2009, “Asia Pacific Airlines” Morgan Stanley Research, Number 7, 8-9, 33-36.
    5. Chris Tarry, May 2009,“Excess capacity headwind increasing”, Economics for International Air Transport Association(IATA), Aviation industry research and analysis (CTAIRA), working paper, 1-3
    6. Damien Horth, October, 2009, “Global Airline Analyser”, UBS Investment Research, Key trend and recommendation, P5-9.
    7. December 2009, “Navigating the new normal: a conversation with four chief strategy officers”, the McKinsey Quarterly, Strategy practice.
    8. Dominic Barton, December 2008, “Asia’s Future and Financial Crisis”, the McKinsey Quarterly, Financial Service sector, p1-5
    9. Ivan L. Pitt,J. R. Norsworthy, 1999, “Economics of the United States commercial airline industry”, Kluwer Academic Publishers. 2nd ed.
    10. International Air Transport Association (IATA), “Airline Industry Forecast 2009-2013”, business intelligence for “Plan for a successful future today” publication, 1-6.
    11. James Ott, Raymond E. Neidl, 1995, “Airline odyssey: the airline industry`s turbulent flight into the future”, McGraw-Hill. 2nd ed
    12. Kenneth Froot, David Scharfstein, and Jeremy Stein, November-December 1994 “A Framework for Risk Management”, Harvard Business Review, When to Hedge-or not, 21, 23-26, 29-31.
    13. Loizos Heracleous, Jochen Wirtz (2008) “Strategy and organization at Singapore Airlines: Achieving sustainable advantage through dual strategy”, Journal of Air Transport Management 15(2009), 274-279
    14. Martin Keohler, Pedro Esquivias and Raj Varadarjan The Boston Consulting Group “Cutting To Fit”, The Airlines Business, November 2009 Edition, 36-42
    15. Murray Smyth, “Distance Learning”, The Airlines Business, November 2009 Edition, 44-49
    16. Paul Hailey (March 2009) “Hedging in Oil Markets- Challenges in 2009 and Beyond”, PLATTS Forward Curve- Oil, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Special Report for Risk, 1–6
    17. Rigas Dogani, 2005, “The airlines Business”. Second ed. Routledge, Abringdon
    18. Shumeet Banerji, Paul Leinwand, and Cesare R. Mainardi, “Cut Costs, Grow Stronger- A Strategic Approach to What to Cut and What to Keep”, Strategy + Business special issue, Autumn 2009, Booz & Company, 1-20.
    19. Stephen Holloway (2003) “Straight and Level: Practical Airline Economics”, Part 3 Capacity Management, 361–364
    20. Stephen S. Roach, Pitfalls in a Post-Bubble World, Morgan Stanley, 2008
    21. Steven Fazzari, R. Glenn Hubbard, and Bruce Petersen, “Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1, 1988, p. 141
    22. Steven Jones, 10-12 November, 2009, “Fuel Hedging: Recent Changes and future developments”, Vienna Aviation Fuel Forum, Morgan Stanley Research, 1-7.
    23. Tom Hansson, Jurgen Ringbeck, and Markus Franke, “Flight for survival: a new operating model for airlines”, Strategy + Business issue, 12 September 2002, Booz & Company.
    24. Tom Hansson, Jurgen Ringbeck, and Markus Franke, “Airlines: A New operating model-providing service and coverage without the cost penalty”, Strategy + Business issue, November 2002, Booz & Company.
    25. William E. O`Connor, 2001, “An introduction to airlines economics”, 6th ed. Chapter 5, Praeger Publisher, The demand for airline service, p 103-115.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
    96933004
    98
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096933004
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[國際經營管理英語碩士學程IMBA] 學位論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 大小格式浏览次数
    index.html0KbHTML2316检视/开启


    在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回馈