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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49687


    Title: 附保證商品在Solvency II 的資本評價
    Authors: 李佳穆
    Contributors: 黃泓智
    李佳穆
    Keywords: Solvency II
    最適估計
    風險邊際
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2010-12-08 16:45:04 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 目前國際上已對於保險業的清償能力、會計原理、監理制度及風險管
    理等相關領域投入許多的努力。而歐盟國家所發展的Solvency II 即是未來
    保險監理制度的主要趨勢。本研究整理相關的文獻以及研究報告書，以歐
    盟CEIOPS機構所提出的量化影響研究（QIS）和瑞士FOPI機構的清償能力
    測試（SST）為主，簡述Solvency II 的相關內容。
    且依據Solvency II 量化的方式以及公平價值的概念，而利用附最低保
    證的GMDB與GMMB商品而作範例說明。分別在風險中立測度下，衡量最
    適估計（Best Estimate）、風險邊際（Risk Margin）以及清償資本額要求
    （SCR）。至於風險邊際，則是使用百分位數法與資金成本法而作比較。
    主要研究結果如下：
    一、 附保證商品在低利率的經濟環境時，會迫使保險公司計提較多
    的資本要求。
    二、 利率在固定假設下，所計提的資本額度高於利率為隨機的假
    設。主要原因在於本文所選定的利率模型為CIR Model，造成
    利率具有回歸到歷史平均水準的特性，也因此讓保單持有人所
    擁有的「賣權」成為價外（Out of the Money）選擇權。
    三、 資金成本法計提較多負債項目的風險邊際，而減少股東權益項
    目的清償資本額的要求。原因在於較能保護保單持有人，讓原
    保險公司能夠順利被接管（Take Over）而保障業務的持續性
    （Ongoing Basis）
    Reference: 英文文獻
    1. Bacinello, A.R. and Ortu, F.（1993b）“Pricing Guaranteed Securities-linked Life Insurance under Interest Rate Risk”, Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks, Transactions of the 3rd AFIR International Colloquium, 35-55.
    2. Bacinello, A.R. and Ortu, F.（1994）“Single and Periodic Premiums for Guaranteed Equity-linked Life Insurance under Interest Rate Risk: the Lognormal＋Vasicek Case” Financial Modeling, L. Peccati and M. Viren (Eds.), Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg, Germany, 1-25.
    3. Ballotta L., Esposito G., and Haberman S.（2006）“The IASB Insurance Project for life insurance contracts: Impact on reserving methods and solvency requirements” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 39, 356-375
    4. Bernard, C., Le Courtois, O., and Quittard-Pinon, F.（2005）“Market value of life insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and default risk” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 36, 499-516.
    5. Black, F. and Scholes, M.（1973）“The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities” Journal of Political Economy, 81, 637-654.
    6. Boyle, P.P.（1976）“Rates of Return as Random Variable”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 43, No. 4, 693-713.
    7. Brennan, M.J. and Schwartz, E.S.（1976）“The Pricing of Equity-linked Life Insurance Policies with an Asset Value Guarantee” Journal of Financial Economics, 3, 195-213.
    8. Cox J.C., Ingersoll J.E. and Ross S. A.（1985）“A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates” Econometrica, Vol. 53, No. 2, 385-407
    9. Denis D. and Jacques L.D.（2008）“The IASB Discussion Paper on Insurance: A CFO Forum Perspective” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, 33, 41-53
    10. Heath, D., Jarrow, R., Morton, A.,（1992）“Bond pricing and the term structure of interest rates: a new methodology for contingent claims valuation” Econometrica 60, 77–105.
    11. Jensen, B., Jørgensen, P., and Grosen, A.（2001）“A finite difference approach to the valuation of path dependent life insurance liabilities” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, 26, 57-84.
    12. J. Barbarin, P. Devolder,（2005）“Risk measure and fair valuation of an investment guarantee in life insurance” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 37, 297–323
    13. K Dowd, D Blake（2006）“After VaR: The Theory, Estimation, and Insurance Applications of Quantile-Based Risk Measures” The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 73, No. 2, 193-229
    14. Lai, S.W. and Frees, E.W.（1995）“Examining Changes in Reserves Using Stochastic Interest Models”, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 62, No. 3, 535-574.
    15. Linder U and Ronkainen V.（2004）“Solvency II - Towards a New Insurance Supervisory System in the EU” Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 6, 462-474
    16. Milevsky, M.A. and Posner, S.（2001）“The Titanic Option: Valuation of Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits in Variable Annuities and Mutual Funds” The Journal of Risk and Insurance Vol.68 No.1, 93-128
    17. Milevsky, M.A. and Promislow, S.D.（2001）“Mortality derivatives and the option to annuities” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 29, 299-318
    18. Mudavanhu B. and Zhuo, J.（2002）“Valuing Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits in Variable Annuities and The Option to Lapse” - Submitted to the North American Actuarial Journal for publication.
    19. Nielsen J. A. and Sandmann K.（1995）“Equity-linked life insurance: A model with stochastic interest rates” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 16, 225-253
    20. Pfeifer D. and Strassburger D.（2008） “Solvency II: stability problems with the SCR aggregation formula” Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 1, 61-77
    21. CEA(Comitè Europèen des Assurances), “Solvency II, Cost of Capital”, 2006
    22. CEIOPS, “QIS2Technical Specification”, 2006
    23. CEIOPS, “QIS3Technical Specifications Part I: Instructions”, 2007
    24. CEIOPS, “QIS3-QandA”, 2007
    25. CEIOPS, “QIS3Technical Specifications Annexes”, 2007
    26. CRO Forum(The Chief Risk Officer Forum) and CEA, “Solutions to major issues for Solvency II”, 2005
    27. CRO Forum, “A Market Cost of Capital Approach to Market Value Margins”, 2006
    28. Financial Services Commission “Implementation Of The Solvency I Directives(2002/12/EC And 2002/13/EC)” Consultation Paper, 2003
    29. FOPI, “White Paper of the Swiss Solvency Test”, 2004
    30. FOPI, “The Swiss Experience with Market Consistent Technical Provision - the Cost of Capital Approach”, 2006
    31. FOPI, “A Primer for Calculating the Swiss Solvency Test “Cost of Capital ” for a Market Value Margin”, 2006
    32. Swiss Re, “Solvency II”, sigma No.4, 2006
    中文文獻
    一. 林永和，「Solvency II 與風險管理」，風險與保險雜誌，中央再保險公司2007出版，No.12, 7-13
    二. 張士傑，「Solvency II：整合型態風險管理的保險監理架構」，風險與保險雜誌，中央再保險公司2007出版，No.12, 2-6
    三. 張少彥，「變額年金投資保證之風險評估：Lee-Carter模型之應用」，2007
    四. 黃芳文，「歐盟Solvency II 監理制度」，保險財務評估與監理，財團法人保險事業發展中心2007出版，241-264
    五. 楊曉文，張孝旭，「勞退新制下變額年金保險之收益保證風險評估與資本適足性研究」，風險管理學報，第七卷第三期2005，301-329
    六. 葉典嘉，「壽險責任準備金公平價值之評價分析-以強制分紅保單為例」，2007
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    風險管理與保險研究所
    95358023
    96
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0953580231
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Risk Management and Insurance] Theses

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