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    Title: 立委選制變遷對選民投票行為之影響:投票穩定與變遷的分析
    The Impact of the Change of Legislator's Electoral System on Voting Behavior: An Analysis of Electoral Stability and Change
    Authors: 林長志
    Lin, Chang Chih
    Contributors: 黃紀
    Huang, Chi
    林長志
    Lin, Chang Chih
    Keywords: 選制變遷
    單一選區兩票制
    投票穩定與變遷
    藍綠聯盟投票
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2010-12-09 14:04:45 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 我國立法委員選舉制度,於2005年經過修憲程序,正式由已實施數十年之久的「複數選區單記非讓渡投票制」(SNTV),從第七屆起轉變為混合式的「單一選區兩票並立制」(MMM)。從Duverger學說及相關學理論述可知,不同選舉制度的特性將可能影響選民投票時的思考及最終的投票行為。因此,本文旨在探討選舉制度的變革是否對選民的黨派投票產生影響,比較選民在選制變革前後的第六屆與第七屆立委選舉,選票流動的情形為何?又有哪些因素可以解釋選民藍綠投票的傾向,以及跨時間的「投票穩定與變遷」?除了以總體層次資料觀察比較新舊選制下的政黨勢力消長外,本文主要以TEDS2008L中的定群追蹤樣本(panel data)作為分析選民投票抉擇的資料來源,並以交叉列聯表及統計模型來進行研究分析。
    研究結果顯示,比較過去SNTV與第七屆新選制首次實施的選舉結果,第七屆選舉兩項有效政黨數指標皆呈現大幅滑落的現象,小黨幾乎全軍覆沒。從政黨菁英的角度分析,亦可發現MMM選制在選前階段的政黨提名與合作上,便已產生強烈驅使不同政黨整合或結盟的壓力,形成藍綠兩聯盟對立競爭的態勢。從選民選票流動的分析來看,於2004年選舉中支持國民黨與民進黨的選民,在2008年的單一選區(SMD)選票及全國不分區比例代表(PR)選票,都有高度穩定投票的傾向。2004年支持小黨如親民黨與台聯的選民,則是兩次選舉中最主要選票流動的來源,其不僅在SMD票中有選票轉移的現象,在PR票中亦有策略性投票支持大黨的傾向,且主要為同一藍綠陣營內「聯盟投票」的投票型態,泛藍陣營內的聯盟投票尤比泛綠陣營更來得顯著。此外,模型分析的結果顯示,就選制因素而言,選民在SMD的藍綠兩大政黨競爭中,較傾向於支持國民黨,其他可能影響選民藍綠投票的因素中,選民的性別、政黨認同、統獨立場、政治信任感、對陳水扁政府施政評價、以及對立法院表現評價等變數,亦具有統計上的顯著性。選民的藍綠政黨偏好變化、統獨立場與族群認同改變,則對於選民屬於何種穩定或變遷投票類型具有解釋力。總結本文分析,我國立委MMM選制不論對政黨或選民而言,皆產生一股導引政黨體系往兩黨體系發展的推力。
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    Description: 博士
    國立政治大學
    政治研究所
    94252503
    98
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094252503
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[政治學系] 學位論文

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