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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49994


    Title: 自有住宅與生育決策─台灣地區之實證分析
    The Influence of Home-Ownership on Fertility in Taiwan
    Authors: 吳閔鈺
    Wu, Min-Yu
    Contributors: 羅光達
    Lo, Kuang-Ta
    吳閔鈺
    Wu, Min-Yu
    Keywords: 自有住宅
    生育
    台灣地區
    homeownership
    fertility
    Taiwan
    Date: 2006
    Issue Date: 2010-12-09 15:50:01 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究主要探討台灣地區自有住宅與生育決策之間的關連性，利用1994年至2005年台灣地區23個縣市之自有住宅率與一般生育率作為實證研究的資料，欲說明一個家庭在面對預算限制式之下，自有住宅對於生育行為的影響，究竟兩者之間存在互補關係抑或競爭關係。本文參考簡單生育理論模型建立迴歸模型，再利用Panel Data實證模型，分析自有住宅與生育決策之間的關係。
    根據台灣地區之官方資料所得出的實證結果，得出以下結論：當生育率遞延一期之時，住宅的持有對於生育行為存在負向關係，顯示出自有住宅於購買初期會延後生育決策的形成，兩者之間存在資源排擠效果；而當生育率遞延兩期時，兩者之間的資源排擠效果更為強大。此外，女性受教程度越高，隱含在工作中所獲得的報酬越高，養育子女的機會成本也就越高，與生育率為負向關係。家戶所得亦等同理論預期，與生育率為正向關係。其他變數，如：代表景氣循環的失業率與反應國情文化的龍虎年效應均與原先預期一致，生育行為有著順景氣循環的特性；台灣生育決策與龍虎年息息相關。
    The thesis presents the relationship between home-ownership and the birth of children in Taiwan. Housing factor might affects childbirth in complement or replacement way with limited budget in a family. In this study, general fertility rate represents decision of childbirth and homeownership rate means housing factor. This research uses 1994-2005 panel data from the statistic institutions in Taiwan to examine the factors which influence decision of having children, especially housing factor.
    The results of the empirical study are summarized as follows: If the decisions of childbirth are lagged a year and two years, they both suffer negative effects from home-ownership. The negative effect of the latter is larger that that of the former. This finding shows that the cost of home-ownership might compete with that of having children. This study also finds that there is a negative relationship between female education and the birth of children. Household income is significant to improve decision of childbirth. Both are consistent with the expectation of theory. Concerning the procyclical behavior of fertility, the study demonstrates that an increase in the unemployment rate generates a decrease in fertility. In addition, having children is correlated with the cultural factors.
    Reference: 官方統計資料
    中華民國行政院內政部統計處(1990─2005年)，《內政統計年報》，台北：中華民國內政部。
    中華民國行政院主計處(1990─2005年)，《家庭收支調查報告》，台北：中華民國行政院主計處。
    中華民國行政院內政部營建署，《住宅狀況調查報告》，台北：世新大學執行，內政部營建署委託。
    國內文獻
    于若蓉、朱敬一(1988)，「婦女勞動參與對生育行為之影響──兩制內生轉換模型之應用」，《經濟論文叢刊》，16(2)，225-249。
    余清祥、許添容(2004)，「台灣地區鄉鎮市區生育率的空間與群集研究」，台灣人口學會2004年年會暨「人口、家庭與國民健康政策回顧與展望」研討會論文。
    李光廷(2007)，「工作與生活調和在少子化對策中定位及意義：以日本為中心」，2007年台灣人口學會學術交流「台灣人口新情勢與對策：國民健康與社會安全」研討會論文。
    吳文傑、連賢明與林祖嘉(2004)，「居住住宅所有權屬與住宅品質對老年人健康狀態的影響」，31(4)，313-324。
    林萬億(2003)，「論我國的社會住宅政策與社會照顧的結合」，《國家政策季刊》，2(4)，55-82。
    林祖嘉、陳建良(2005)，「租買選擇、貸款選擇、與世代組成：巢式LOGIT模型之應用」，《住宅學報》，14(1)，1-20。
    張素梅(1976)，「台灣生育率決定因素的分析」，《社會科學論叢》，25，399-412。
    薛立敏、李璧君(1998)，「台灣地區房價、住宅權屬與儲蓄間關係之探討」，《1998年中華民國住宅學會第七屆年會論文集》，21-40。
    陳建良、張郁鶴(2000)，「住宅租擁、世代組成與家計儲蓄間關係之探討──以台灣加計收支調查為對象的分析」，《住宅學報》，9(2)，99-124。
    薛立敏、陳琇里(1998)，「住宅租擁選擇下家計消費支出之比較」，《住宅學報》，7，21-40。
    黃修梅(2006)，《台灣婦女教育程度與龍虎年效應對生育之影響》，國立政治大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
    楊靜利、彭曉蘋(2005)，「台灣的人口問題」，《台灣的社會問題》，38-65。
    國外文獻
    Becker, Gary S. (1960), “An economic analysis of fertility.” Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, a Conference of the Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research. Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press.
    Becker, Gary S. (1991), A Treatise on the Family, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
    Castiglioni, Maria and Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna (1994), “Innovation and tradition: reproductive and marital behaviour in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s.” European Journal of Population, 10, 107-142.
    Courgeau, Daniel and Eva Lelièvre (1992), “Interrelations between first home-ownership, constitution of the family, and professional occupation in France.” Demographic Applications of Event History Analysis, edited by J. Trussell, R. Hankinson, and J. Tilton. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 120-140.
    Feijten, Peteke and Clara H. Mulder (2002), “The timing of household events and housing events in the Netherlands: A longitudinal perspective.” Housing Studies, 17, 773-792.
    Fox, J. and P. Goldblatt (1982), Socio-demographic Differentials in Mortality from the OPCS Longitudinal Study, London: HMSO.
    Hausman, J. A. (1978), “Specification Tests in Econometrics,” Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
    Huang, Jr-Tsung (2002), “Personal tax exemption: the effect on fertility in Taiwan.” The Developing Economies, 40(1), 32-38.
    Huang, Jr-Tsung, An-Pang Kao, and Wen-Chuan Hung (2006), “The influence of college tuition and fees on fertility rate in Taiwan.” Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 27(4), 626-642.
    Kohler, H-P., F. Billari, and J. Ortega (2002), “The emergence of lowest low fertility in Europe during the 1990s.” Population and Development Review, 28(4), 641-680.
    Lutz, W. and V. Skirbekk (2005), “Policies addressing the tempo effect in low fertility countries.” Population and Development Review, 31(4), 699-720.
    Mocan, Naci H. (1990), “Business cycles and fertility dynamics in the United States: a vector autoregressive model.” Journal of Population Economics, 3, 125-146.
    Mulder, Clara H. and Michael Wagner (2001), “The connections between family formation and first-time home ownership in the context of West Germany and the Netherlands.” European Journal of Population, 17, 137-164.
    Murphy, M. J. and O. Sullivan (1985), “Housing tenure and family formation in contemporary Britain.” European Sociological Review, 1, 230-243.
    Mulder, Clara H. (2006), “Population and housing: a two-sided relationship.” Demographic Research, 15, 401-412.
    Schultz, T. Paul (1985), “Changing world prices, women’s wage and the fertility transition: Sweden 1860-1910.” Journal of Political Economy, 93, 1126-1154.
    Willis, Robert J. (1973), “A New approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior.” Journal of Political Economy, 81, S14-S64.
    Whittington, Leslie A., James Alm and H. Elizabeth Peters (1990), “Fertility and the personal exemption: implicit pronatalist policy in the United States.” American Economic Review, 80, 545-556.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政研究所
    94255015
    95
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094255015
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Public Finance] Theses

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