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    Title: 匯率目標區理論的回顧:圖形解析
    Other Titles: The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Graphical
    Authors: 方中柔
    Keywords: 匯率目標區;目標區政策;隨機微分方程
    Exchange Rate Target Zones;Target Zone Policy;Stochastic Differential Equation.
    Date: 2002
    Issue Date: 2007-04-18 18:27:16 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 臺北市:國立政治大學經濟學系
    Abstract: 「匯率目標區」是國際金融領域於一九九○年代重要的研究議題。該研究將統計學的隨機微分方程技巧應用於匯率的管制問題,成功地闡釋了央行匯率目標區的政策宣示對於匯率有安定的作用。匯率目標區搬上國際金融的舞台已經超過十年,這段期間已經累積了相當數量的研究成果。然而,經濟學者在學習或研究匯率目標區的議題時,常為隨機微分方程的技巧所苦,無法領會該研究議題的精髓。故本計畫首先擬避開複雜的數學工具,利用簡單易懂的圖形解析方法,回顧既存的匯率目標區文獻。相較於隨機微分方程的分析,圖形的解析可以清楚地闡釋,這些既存文獻所強調者在於,政策當局所宣示的「多樣化」的匯率管制措施,將會左右民眾對於匯率或其他相關變數的預期,進而影響匯率或其他相關變數的變化。因此,本計畫由 Krugman (1991) 的模型開始,將其邊界干預及 Flood and Garber (1991) 的反射式干預政策作摘要性之敘述並予以圖解化,且將其應用於後續發展之文獻,如:解決目標區理論與實證研究矛盾的相關論文。故凡舉目標區體制與重整政策之不確定性干預、界內干預、及價格緩慢調整的體系等均將一併以圖形來分析。
    The theory of exchange rate target zones focuses on the role of exchange rate expectations in determining exchange rate behavior and interest rate differentials in currency bands. This study using the graphical analysis to address earlier models of the target zone research program as well as more recent developments including endogenous realignment expectations, price rigidities and alternative monetary feedback rules by means of a unified graphical analysis approach. Target zones may be the cause of stabilizing or destabilizing exchange rate expectations, the determinants of which crucially depend on the within-band central bank policy as well as the credibility of the central banks' commitment to defend the target zones.
    Description: 核定金額:381300元
    Data Type: report
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 國科會研究計畫

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